The headliner: Sunday night in Cincinnati, and the sims like the home team by a field goal
Tonight, 8:20 PM ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals. The GameSim projection is Cincinnati 27.9, Pittsburgh 24.6, across 1,140 simulations. An AFC North rivalry under the lights, and the sims have it staying close, a 3.3-point margin with a combined total of 52.5.
The projected stats point to a quarterback duel. Joe Burrow is projected for 320.0 passing yards and 2.4 touchdowns for Cincinnati, against 261.8 yards and 1.5 touchdowns for Pittsburgh's Aaron Rodgers. Jaylen Warren adds a projected 96.3 rushing yards for the Steelers. If Burrow is anywhere near 320, the Bengals cover the number. If Rodgers keeps it clean and Warren grinds out close to 100, this one comes down to the final drive.
My take: the model is saying Cincinnati's passing game is the difference, and a three-point home edge in a rivalry game is the sims refusing to pick a blowout. Pittsburgh flips it by winning the ground game and keeping Burrow off the field. This is the game to watch tonight, and the number says it should be close late.
The early window: Detroit hosts a 9:30 AM kickoff, and the sims see points
At 9:30 AM ET: New England Patriots at Detroit Lions. The GameSim projection is Detroit 32.4, New England 22.4, across 1,140 simulations. Detroit's projected 32.4 is the highest team total on the whole Sunday card, and the combined total of 54.8 is the biggest of the day.
The projected stats say both quarterbacks show up. Drake Maye is projected for 295.2 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns for New England, against 250.6 yards and 1.9 touchdowns for Detroit's Jared Goff. Jahmyr Gibbs adds a projected 103.4 rushing yards for the Lions, with Amon-Ra St. Brown at 81.2 receiving yards. My take: the sims are calling a shootout to open the day, and if Gibbs gets past 100 on the ground, Detroit covers the ten points with room to spare.
The 1:00 PM window: the Colts own the widest call, and the Jets game is a dead heat
At 1:00 PM ET, Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts, Indianapolis 28.0, Miami 15.7, across 1,140 simulations. A 12.3-point margin is the widest call on the card, and the projected stats back it up: Daniel Jones at 217.4 passing yards and 1.4 touchdowns, with Jonathan Taylor at 73.4 rushing yards. My take: the sims are not buying a Miami upset here, and the Colts win this one by leaning on the run and letting the defense do the rest.
Also at 1:00 PM ET, Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns, Cleveland 26.9, Houston 17.8, and Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, Green Bay 25.1, Minnesota 15.4. Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville 25.7, Tennessee 20.0, and Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, Kansas City 24.5, Atlanta 22.8, a 1.8-point margin that should stay live into the fourth quarter. Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints, Carolina 24.3, New Orleans 22.4, another one-score game.
And the coin flip of the day: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets, Buffalo 23.3, New York 23.2, across 1,140 simulations. Two hundredths of a point is the model throwing up its hands, and the honest call is that either side takes it.
The late window: Seattle, the Rams, and the 49ers in Dallas
At 4:05 PM ET, Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders, Seattle 27.1, Las Vegas 17.6, and Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles 26.3, Arizona 22.4. At 4:25 PM ET, San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 27.7, Dallas 25.9, a 1.8-point margin in the late window's best game. My take: the sims like the road teams in the late window, and Dallas at home against San Francisco is the one to watch if you want a game that comes down to the last possession.
Quick hits: the Lakers in Phoenix, a dead heat in Austin, and one game that moved
From the NBA, at 4:00 PM ET, Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles 121.8, Phoenix 118.1, across 200 simulations, the highest total on the NBA card at 239.9. At 6:00 PM ET, New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors, New York 110.1, Toronto 108.6, and at 9:00 PM ET, Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings, Oklahoma City 114.7, Sacramento 106.9.
From college hoops, at 3:00 PM ET, Baylor at Texas, Texas 79.3, Baylor 78.9, across 200 simulations, four tenths of a point separating the two. At 7:00 PM ET, Syracuse at St. John's, St. John's 83.0, Syracuse 75.9, and at 1:00 PM ET, Louisville at Memphis, Louisville 90.0, Memphis 68.5.
On the ice, at 8:00 PM ET, Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars, Florida 4.4, Dallas 3.0, the highest combined total on the ice at 7.4 goals. At 7:30 PM ET, Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers, Edmonton 3.9, Philadelphia 2.3. And one college football note: Ole Miss at Oklahoma, Oklahoma 27.1, Ole Miss 26.1, across 1,000 simulations, was listed on yesterday's card but moved to today, kicking off at 1:00 PM ET.
The report card: yesterday's card goes 20-for-27, and the model nearly nailed Denver's number
State it plainly first: yesterday's featured card went 20-for-27 on called winners, graded on the projections printed in yesterday's article. College football went 13-for-17, the NBA 3-for-5, college hoops 2-for-3, and the NHL 2-for-2, with one dead-even game graded as a no-call and the Ole Miss at Oklahoma game moved to today, so it was not graded.
The misses were real but contained. Notre Dame beat Boston College 41-7 after the sims had the Eagles by 1.0, Arkansas beat South Carolina 34-6 after the sims had the Gamecocks by 8.7, Florida beat Kentucky 21-14 after the sims had the Wildcats by 0.3, and Texas Tech won at Oklahoma State 52-27 after the sims had the Cowboys by 11.9. In the NBA, Chicago beat Minnesota 117-106 after the sims had the Timberwolves by 19.1, and Miami beat Detroit 137-117 after the sims had the Pistons by 1.7. In college hoops, Santa Clara beat New Mexico 90-85 after the sims had the Lobos by 5.8.
But the card earned its record. Texas beat LSU 22-21, Wake Forest beat SMU 49-7, Ohio State beat Northwestern 28-19, Miami beat Duke 36-25, Alabama beat Vanderbilt 21-6, Georgia beat Missouri 48-21, Indiana beat USC 27-13, Oregon beat Michigan 31-7, Tennessee beat Texas A&M 22-7, TCU beat Kansas State 20-10, Louisville beat UNC 16-14, Iowa beat Purdue 28-7, and Utah beat Arizona 40-39. In the NBA, Denver beat New Orleans 116-108, Cleveland beat Dallas 127-117, and Memphis beat Brooklyn 129-110. On the ice, Edmonton beat Toronto 1-0 and Carolina beat Seattle 5-1. In college hoops, LSU beat Gonzaga 81-80 and Cincinnati beat Dayton 95-72.
And the model deserves credit where it earned it. Denver landed on 116 points against a projected 115.8. Gonzaga landed on 80 against a projected 80.7, with the LSU at Gonzaga total coming in at 161 against a projected 163.9. Miami landed on 36 against a projected 38.4, with Duke at 25 against a projected 25.9. Edmonton at Toronto was the closest call, the Oilers winning by one against a projected 0.8-point margin. The biggest miss was Texas Tech at Oklahoma State, the Red Raiders winning 52-27 after the sims had the Cowboys by 11.9. The GameSim line went 1-for-3, graded on covering the projected margin, with Georgia covering by a mile and the Texas and Miami legs missing, Texas winning by one against a 15-point line and Miami winning by 11 against a 12-point line. Twenty winners right, seven wrong, a winning day with the big calls on both sides of the ledger, and the projected stats and totals still doing real work underneath it.
GameSim line: Cincinnati by 3 over Pittsburgh, Detroit by 10 over New England, and Indianapolis by 12 over Miami.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and none of the games today have been played yet. Yesterday the featured calls went 20-for-27 on winners, with college football at 13-for-17, the NBA at 3-for-5, college hoops at 2-for-3, and the NHL at 2-for-2, and the biggest miss in Stillwater, where Texas Tech won 52-27 after the sims had Oklahoma State by 11.9. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong today.
