Three NBA games bring different kinds of intrigue to the November 15 slate: a cross-conference test between a surging Boston team and Dallas, an Atlantic Division matchup with little separating the projections, and a Pacific rivalry featuring one of the league’s biggest projected scoring nights. Our simulations see close margins throughout, even where the Vegas lines suggest a different degree of separation.
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics
The Dallas Mavericks arrive at 7-6 to face a Boston Celtics team that has opened 10-2. That record contrast sets the scene, but the model expects a much tighter contest than the market spread implies: GameSim projects Boston 112.8, Dallas 110.4, with the Celtics winning 53% of 200 simulations. Vegas lists Boston at -13.5, a notable gap from the model’s projected 2.4-point margin.
Cooper Flagg is projected to fill the box score for Dallas with 25.8 points, 9.0 rebounds and 6.2 assists. Boston’s Jayson Tatum is forecast for 22.1 points and 6.6 assists, while Paul George adds a projected 20.4 points. If Flagg’s all-around production keeps pace with Boston’s scoring options, this cross-conference matchup could stay competitive deep into the night. See the full Mavericks-Celtics prediction.
New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors
There is even less daylight in the model’s outlook for this Atlantic Division meeting. The New York Knicks are 6-6 and the Toronto Raptors are 5-7; GameSim gives New York a 52% win probability and projects a 110.1-108.6 result.
Jalen Brunson leads the Knicks’ projected scoring at 24.6 points, with Karl-Anthony Towns forecast for 20.6 points and 13.7 rebounds. Toronto’s Scottie Barnes projects for 19.7 points and 9.2 boards, while RJ Barrett is projected to contribute 17.6 points. In a game forecast to be decided by just 1.5 points, those frontcourt numbers could prove especially important. Explore the Knicks-Raptors simulation.
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns
The Pacific Division closes the marquee slate with the Los Angeles Lakers (11-2) visiting the Phoenix Suns (5-6). GameSim projects a lively 121.8-118.1 Lakers result, but a 55% win probability leaves plenty of room for a close finish.
The headline player projection belongs to Luka Doncic, at 39.0 points, 7.7 rebounds and 8.3 assists. Phoenix’s Devin Booker is projected for 27.0 points, giving the Suns a major scoring counter. The model also sees Walker Kessler grabbing 13.7 rebounds for Los Angeles. View the Lakers-Suns prediction.
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