Week 8 has the usual headline games, and most of them are priced about the way our simulations see them. The interesting spots are the ones where the books and GameSim are looking at different teams. A few of those kick off before Saturday, so this list is worth a look before Thursday night.
Here is where the sims see upset potential.
LSU at Auburn
This is the loudest disagreement on the board. LSU is a touchdown favorite on the road at -250, laying 7, and Auburn is +205 at home. That price gives the Tigers about a 1 in 3 shot.
Our sims do not see a toss-up, and they do not see an LSU win. Auburn wins 93.2% of the runs and averages a 38.6 to 18.1 score. Jordan-Hare at noon has buried plenty of favored visitors, and the model thinks this is one of those afternoons. If you only open one prediction this week, make it the LSU at Auburn prediction.
James Madison at Appalachian State (Thursday)
Thursday night in Boone, and James Madison is laying 10.5 on the road. The Dukes are around -420, with App State sitting near +330. The market has the Mountaineers closer to a 1 in 4 shot.
GameSim has App State winning 64.1% of the simulations, with a projected score of 33.5 to 28.4. That is a wide gap for a team getting more than a touchdown and a field goal at home. Kidd Brewer on a Thursday is a nasty place to be a double-digit favorite. Full look: James Madison at Appalachian State prediction.
Oklahoma at Mississippi State
Oklahoma is a short road favorite, laying about a field goal, and Mississippi State is plus money at home. The books like the Sooners, but they are not laying a big number.
The sims flip it. Mississippi State wins 60.3% of runs, and the average score is 26.0 to 22.9. Starkville has a way of turning a field-goal game into a problem for the visitor, and getting the sim favorite at plus money is the clean version of an upset watch. See the Oklahoma at Mississippi State prediction.
Tennessee at South Carolina
The market cannot pick a side here. South Carolina is a slight home favorite, about a couple of points, and the moneyline is close to a pick'em depending on the book.
GameSim is not split. South Carolina wins 67.1% of simulations and projects to win 33.1 to 27.5. When the books are shrugging and the model has a clear home side, that is the spot. Details: Tennessee at South Carolina prediction.
Houston at Utah
Late window out west. Utah is laying 6.5 at home and sitting around -230, with Houston near +190. That is a comfortable home favorite price.
The sims call it the other way, and not by a blowout. Houston wins 56.9% of runs, with a projected score of 33.5 to 31.1. Altitude and a night kick can swing a one-score game, but plus money on the sim favorite is still the side worth circling. Check the Houston at Utah prediction.
USC at Wisconsin
USC is a short road favorite, laying about a field goal, and Wisconsin is plus money at home. The market sees a close game with a slight Trojans lean.
Our sims lean the other way. Wisconsin wins 56.6% of runs, and the average score is 29.0 to 26.4. Camp Randall in late October is not a soft landing for a small road favorite. Full breakdown: USC at Wisconsin prediction.
Quick hitters
- BYU at UCF: BYU is still the pick, laying about 6.5. UCF wins 36.5% of runs and is priced closer to a 30% shot at around +220. The score projects to 26.9 to 22.7.
- Indiana at Michigan: Not an upset watch. Indiana is laying about a touchdown, and the sims agree. The Hoosiers win 76.8% of runs, 29.8 to 21.3.
For every game on the Week 8 slate, check out the full college football predictions board. Detailed projected player stats for all games are available exclusively to GameSim+ subscribers. Learn more and subscribe here.
