No. 2 Duke hosts No. 8 Tennessee tonight at 7 p.m. ET in Cameron Indoor Stadium, an exhibition on ACC Network. Duke's gameday note frames it as the only matchup of two programs that reached the Elite Eight in each of the last three NCAA Tournaments. The Blue Devils bring a 32-game home winning streak into it, and a 63-3 home record under Jon Scheyer.
We ran the game on the MyGameSim college basketball simulator with the 2026-27 rosters and home court on. In 100 simulations, Duke won 65 and Tennessee won 35. The average score was Duke 73.2, Tennessee 66.6. Twenty-two games were decided by five points or fewer. Duke won 29 by 15 or more. Tennessee still had four wins of that size, so Cameron is an edge, not a lock.
Those runs use the updated rosters, which is the useful part before the season starts. Cameron Boozer and Isaiah Evans are off the Duke sheet after the 2026 draft. Transfers John Blackwell, Drew Scharnowski are on it, along with freshmen Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, Cameron Williams, Deron Rippey Jr., Bryson Howard, and Maxime Meyer. Tennessee's portal group is in the same file: Juke Harris, Terrence Hill Jr., Jalen Haralson, Dai Dai Ames and the rest of Rick Barnes' new rotation. You can open that Duke-Tennessee matchup and run it yourself. A free account gets three current-season simulations a day. GameSim+ subscribers get unlimited simulations on the updated rosters. Create a free account if you want the three daily runs.
The scoring lines below are the average of a separate 30-simulation sample with box scores turned on, same teams and same seasons.
Duke's model box was led by the two preseason All-ACC first-teamers. John Blackwell averaged 14.0 points and 4.4 rebounds, shooting 45 percent from the field and 41 percent from three. Patrick Ngongba II averaged 11.3 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.0 assists on 54 percent shooting. Freshman Cameron Williams was next at 11.1 points and 4.9 rebounds. Caleb Foster, one of four returning rotation pieces, put up 9.1 points, 4.0 rebounds and 3.3 assists. Cayden Boozer added 7.3 points and 2.6 assists.
The sim is cooler on the players who popped in the exhibition opener. Duke beat Belmont 102-62 on Oct. 8, and Duke athletics had Dame Sarr and Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje with 19 points each, Blackwell with 15, Cayden Boozer with 12 and Deron Rippey Jr. with 11. Against a top-10 roster, the model has Sarr at 5.6 points and 5.4 rebounds, Boumtje Boumtje at 6.6 and 4.6, and Rippey at 4.7. Boumtje Boumtje is the preseason ACC Rookie of the Year. The simulator still gives the ball to Blackwell, Ngongba and Williams first.
Tennessee's points came from the transfers. Juke Harris, in from Wake Forest, led the Volunteers at 13.3 points and 6.0 rebounds. Terrence Hill Jr. added 12.5 points and 2.5 assists. Jalen Haralson, the Notre Dame transfer, was third at 10.6 points and 4.4 rebounds. Dai Dai Ames scored 8.4 and handed out 2.0 assists. DeWayne Brown II (6.5 points, 3.7 rebounds) and Miles Rubin (5.5 and 3.5) were the next bigs. Tyler Lundblade, a high-volume three-point shooter at Belmont, settled at 5.3 points, and every field goal the model gave him was a three.
Duke was 35-3 last season, won the ACC regular-season and tournament titles, and is the preseason pick to do it again. This exhibition will not count in the standings. It is still the first top-10 look at both new rosters, a year after Duke won the exhibition in Knoxville, 83-76. The model sees a lower-scoring game this time, with the Blue Devils in front more often than not.
Want another look at this one, or Duke's exhibition at Kansas on Sunday? The 2026-27 rosters are already loaded. Free accounts can run three current-season games a day. Subscribers can keep going.
