Week 4 is where fantasy managers start separating real trends from early-season flukes. Three weeks of usage give us enough to work with, and our simulations have some strong opinions this weekend. With Pittsburgh and Cleveland already in the books from Thursday night, the rest of the slate is open, so it's time to lock in your lineup. MyGameSim's NFL Start or Sit tool ranks every position using projected fantasy points from our game simulations.
Here are the top projected players at each spot for Week 4. These come straight from our model, not consensus rankings, so expect a few names that look different from what you'll see elsewhere.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen sits clearly at the top of the board at 24.9 projected fantasy points at home against New England. Nobody else on the slate tops 21.3, so the Bills quarterback is the safest start of the week by a wide margin. Division games can get weird, but our sims keep landing on Allen as the best bet.
After Allen, it gets tight. C.J. Stroud (21.2) hosts Dallas, Tyler Shough (21.2) gets Atlanta on Monday night, and Geno Smith (21.2) visits Chicago with the Jets. Jayden Daniels (20.2) and Sam Darnold (20.2) also clear 20 points. The surprise is Lamar Jackson at 19.2 against Tennessee, which is low by his standards. That's mostly because our sims expect Baltimore to lean on the run game in a game it controls. Check the full QB Start or Sit list if you're choosing between streamers.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson leads all running backs at 25.2 projected points at New Orleans on Monday night. James Cook III is right behind him at 24.8 against the Patriots, and that game script also helps Allen. If you have either one, you aren't sitting them.
Jahmyr Gibbs (22.7 at Carolina) and Derrick Henry (22.6 vs. Tennessee) round out a strong top four. Henry's projection is the other half of why Lamar sits lower than usual: the Ravens should be able to grind this one out. Next come Kenneth Walker III (18.9 at Las Vegas), Bucky Irving (18.4 vs. Green Bay), and Christian McCaffrey (18.2 vs. Denver). McCaffrey drops a little this week against a tougher Broncos front, but he's still a clear RB1. D'Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, and Chuba Hubbard all project between 16.8 and 17.3. The RB projections will help settle your flex calls.
Wide Receivers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the top receiver of the week, and it isn't close. He projects for 21.6 points at home against the Chargers, more than three points ahead of anyone else at the position. The Seahawks keep funneling targets his way, and our sims expect that to continue.
Chris Olave (18.5 vs. Atlanta) and Garrett Wilson (18.1 at Chicago) make up the second tier. Christian Watson (15.8 at Tampa Bay) is the name that stands out most from consensus, and he's worth a look if you're deciding between him and a bigger name. Drake London (15.6) gives the Monday night game plenty of fantasy value from both sides, and Ja'Marr Chase (15.5 vs. Jacksonville) is right there with him. Josh Downs, Davante Adams, and DJ Moore fill out the top nine. CeeDee Lamb comes in at 11.9 at Houston, a tough matchup that keeps him from being a slam dunk this week. See every receiver on the WR Start or Sit page.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce bounces back to the top of the TE board at 11.6 projected points at Las Vegas, a week after he looked more like a borderline starter. Trey McBride (10.9 at the Giants) is right behind him and stays one of the most reliable tight ends in fantasy.
The Bengals have two tight ends in the top seven, with Jack Endries at 9.6 and Mike Gesicki at 7.9 against Jacksonville. Rookie Kenyon Sadiq (9.1 at Chicago) is another name to consider if you're streaming. Dalton Kincaid (8.6) and Dalton Schultz (8.1) are solid fallback options. Mark Andrews drops to 7.0 for the same run-heavy reason that holds Lamar down. The full TE Start or Sit rankings go deeper.
Kickers and Defense
Buffalo shows up everywhere this week. Tyler Bass leads all kickers at 13.4 projected points, followed by Jason Myers (12.6) and Will Reichard (10.4 vs. Miami). On defense, the Bills and Texans both project for 16.0 points, with the Ravens (14.0) and Cardinals (13.0) next. If you stream defenses, Houston at home against Dallas and Arizona at the Giants are the best targets that are likely still on the waiver wire.
Need help with a flex spot? The FLEX board puts running backs, receivers, and tight ends on one list so you can compare them directly.
Games to Watch
The Colts and Commanders open Sunday with an early-morning kickoff, so make sure Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs, and Jayden Daniels are set before you're even awake. On Sunday night, Detroit visits Carolina with Gibbs and Bryce Young (19.8) both projecting well. Monday night's Falcons and Saints game might be the best fantasy matchup of the week, with Bijan, London, Olave, and Shough all near the top of their positions.
How to use this
Our Start or Sit grades combine projected fantasy points with opposing defensive strength from the same simulations. Players with higher projections and softer matchups rise to the top. That doesn't mean you should bench a proven star for every surprise name, but when the model and your gut disagree, take a second look.
Free users can see the top of each position list. GameSim+ unlocks the full Week 4 Start or Sit board, plus detailed player projections for every game on the slate. Good luck this week.
