Virginia's performance against Harvard on Sunday was quite impressive. UVA allowed just 8 points and one made field goal in the first half and just 27 points for the game. According to DBR, Harvard starters made just 1 field goal for the entire game. Of course, this game wasn't an anomaly as Virginia held Rutgers to just 26 points earlier in the season. That got me thinking about how Virginia will match up with the ACC this season. Which ACC team will score the fewest points against the Cavaliers this season?
I ran 10 sims over at NCAAGameSim.com for each conference game, let's take a look at the lowest points scored for each game.
Matchup : Lowest scoring game for opponent
1/3 @ Miami : 49 pts
1/7 vs NC State : 44 pts
1/10 @ Notre Dame : 53 pts
1/13 vs Clemson : 40 pts (this was the game I was watching for the lowest)
1/17 @ BC : 44 pts
1/22 vs Georgia Tech : 41 pts (twice)
1/25 @ Virginia Tech : 42 pts
1/31 vs Duke : 56 pts
2/2 @ UNC : 53 pts
2/7 vs Louisville : 48 pts
2/11 @ NC State : 55 pts
2/14 vs Wake Forest : 39 pts
2/16 vs Pitt : 46 pts (twice)
2/22 vs FSU : 48 pts
2/25 @ Wake Forest : 39 pts
2/28 vs Virginia Tech : 34 pts
3/2 @ Syracuse : 43 pts
3/7 @ Louisville : 49 pts
So, Virginia held Virginia Tech to just 34 points in their February 28th matchup against the Hokies at home. Let me sim that one a few more times and see the lowest scoring performance we might see allowed by the UVA defense.
I simmed the matchup 100 times, and there were 9 cases where the Hokies scored less than 40 points.
- FINAL SCORE -- Virginia (2015): 78 - Virginia Tech (2015): 36
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FINAL SCORE -- Virginia (2015): 77 - Virginia Tech (2015): 34
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FINAL SCORE -- Virginia (2015): 91 - Virginia Tech (2015): 39
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FINAL SCORE -- Virginia (2015): 69 - Virginia Tech (2015): 38
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FINAL SCORE -- Virginia (2015): 82 - Virginia Tech (2015): 34
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FINAL SCORE -- Virginia (2015): 75 - Virginia Tech (2015): 33
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FINAL SCORE -- Virginia (2015): 77 - Virginia Tech (2015): 33
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FINAL SCORE -- Virginia (2015): 85 - Virginia Tech (2015): 38
There was one instance where Virginia Tech was held to fewer than 30 points.
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FINAL SCORE -- Virginia (2015): 66 - Virginia Tech (2015): 29
It seems pretty clear that if we're going to see a "Harvard or Rutgers-like" defensive performance by UVA it will likely happen when they host Virginia Tech.
