Saturday, 3:30 PM ET: Oregon at Ohio State. No. 22 against No. 3, in Columbus, and the GameSim projection is Oregon 29.6, Ohio State 29.5, across 1,060 simulations. A tenth of a point. That is not a lean, that is the model throwing up its hands and telling you to watch the game.
The projected stats are just as even. The sims have Oregon's Dylan Raiola throwing for 267.2 yards and 2.55 touchdowns, and Ohio State's Luke Fahey right behind him at 258.7 yards and 2.2 touchdowns. On the ground, Ohio State's Bo Jackson is projected for 97.5 rushing yards, the biggest individual edge either side holds. Two quarterbacks, two nearly identical afternoons, one stadium that will be shaking.
My take: when 1,060 runs cannot separate two teams by more than a tenth of a point, the take is not about the score, it is about the moment. Ohio State is the higher-ranked team at home, and the sims still will not give them the game. That tells you everything about how good Oregon is supposed to be. If the Buckeyes win this one, it will be because the home crowd and the running game tilt a game the model calls dead even.
Georgia's trip to Oxford is the other top-ten test
Saturday, 7:30 PM ET: Georgia at Ole Miss. No. 2 against No. 21, and the GameSim projection is Georgia 32.6, Ole Miss 30.7, across 1,000 simulations. Less than a field goal separating them, in a night game in Oxford.
My take: Georgia is the two seed, and the sims are giving Ole Miss a real chance to ruin their Saturday. A two-point road win for the Bulldogs is the model's way of saying this one goes to the fourth quarter, and the Rebels at home at night are exactly the kind of team that turns a two-point projection into an upset.
The ranked road favorites are not being shy
Three top-ten teams are projected to win big away from home. Alabama at LSU, 3:30 PM ET: Alabama 42.5, LSU 25.0, across 1,060 simulations. That is No. 5 putting up 42 points in Death Valley. Miami at Notre Dame, 7:30 PM ET: Miami 41.5, Notre Dame 24.0, across 1,041 simulations, No. 8 winning by more than two touchdowns in South Bend. And Louisville at Georgia Tech, 7:30 PM ET: Louisville 39.1, Georgia Tech 28.6, across 1,000 simulations.
My take: the model is not hedging on any of these. When the sims hand a road team 40-plus points in a rivalry building, they are saying the talent gap is bigger than the address. LSU and Notre Dame at home are supposed to be the hard part of the schedule. The sims disagree.
The noon window has the rivalry game
BYU at Utah, noon ET: Utah 30.2, BYU 27.0, across 1,060 simulations. No. 10 BYU goes into the Holy War as the underdog, and the sims like the Utes by a field goal at home. Rivalry games are where projections go to die, and this one has the shape of it, a ranked road team getting picked to lose by three.
Also at noon: Texas at Missouri, Texas 24.2, Missouri 22.5, across 1,060 simulations, No. 4 winning by less than two on the road. UCLA at Minnesota, UCLA 24.9, Minnesota 18.5, across 1,060 simulations. And the truest coin flip of the day, Florida State at Boston College, noon ET: 28.3 to 28.3, across 1,060 simulations. Dead even, down to the decimal.
The evening coin flips and home favorites
Kentucky at Tennessee, 6:15 PM ET: Tennessee 26.4, Kentucky 25.0, across 1,000 simulations, No. 20 against No. 25 separated by barely a point. Iowa at Northwestern, 7:30 PM ET: Iowa 28.1, Northwestern 26.0, across 1,000 simulations. Oklahoma at Florida, 7:45 PM ET: Florida 31.6, Oklahoma 23.5, across 998 simulations, the No. 15 Gators favored by eight at home. And Texas A&M at South Carolina, 3:00 PM ET: South Carolina 36.1, Texas A&M 19.8, across 1,060 simulations, the No. 13 Gamecocks projected to win by more than two touchdowns.
One more for the road
The NBA has seven games tonight, and the loudest is Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns, 9:00 PM ET: Houston 124.3, Phoenix 115.2, across 262 simulations, a road favorite in a game projected past 239 points combined. San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers, 10:00 PM ET: Portland 118.8, San Antonio 106.9, across 260 simulations. New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:00 PM ET: Cleveland 111.7, New York 109.1, across 280 simulations, a three-point game. And Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:00 PM ET: Oklahoma City 117.4, Washington 101.3, the champs back home after last night.
On the ice, twelve games, including Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild, 8:00 PM ET: Tampa Bay 5.3, Minnesota 4.1, across 280 simulations, and Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche, 9:00 PM ET: Colorado 4.7, Detroit 3.1. College hoops has 42 games, and the tightest are VCU at Memphis, 3:00 PM ET: VCU 78.9, Memphis 77.2, and Maryland at Georgetown, 7:30 PM ET: Georgetown 71.5, Maryland 70.1.
The report card: yesterday's card goes 14-for-21, with the headliner flipping hard and the close calls landing
State it plainly first: yesterday's featured card went 14-for-21 on called winners, graded on the projections printed in yesterday's article. The headliner flipped hard, as Oklahoma City beat Memphis 128-97 after the sims had the Grizzlies 116.2 to 109.8. The defending champs did not just win, they won by 31 on the road.
The other two headline calls flipped too. The Lakers beat Portland 124-118 after the sims had the Blazers 119.2 to 116.1, and SMU beat Virginia Tech 51-28 after the sims had the Hokies 33.4 to 31.5, the ranked home team winning by 23. The GameSim line went 0-for-3 on its three legs. College hoops added three more misses, as Oregon beat Eastern Washington 98-71, Brown beat Boston University 91-68, and UCLA beat North Florida 81-63, all against the sims, and Buffalo beat Columbus 5-2 after the sims had the Blue Jackets 3.2 to 2.9.
But the rest of the card held, and the close calls were the story. The NBA went 7-for-9, with Minnesota beating New Orleans 115-109, the Timberwolves landing right on 115 against a projected 114.6, and Atlanta beating Washington 139-132, the Hawks winning by 7 against a projected 7.6. College football went 4-for-5, with Arizona beating TCU 29-28 against a projected 28.9 to 27.8, and East Carolina beating USF 20-17 against a projected 21.2 to 17.2, two games called nearly to the point. On the ice, Anaheim won in Calgary 5-3 and Minnesota beat San Jose 4-1, for a 2-for-3 night. Fourteen winners right, seven wrong, a split night with the big calls on both sides of the ledger.
GameSim line: Oregon by a tenth of a point in Columbus, Georgia by two in Oxford, and Miami by more than two touchdowns in South Bend.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and none of the games today have been played yet. Yesterday the featured calls went 14-for-21 on winners, with the headliner flipping hard, the Timberwolves landing right on 115, and Arizona and East Carolina called nearly to the point. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong today.
