Game Preview: Virginia vs West Virginia - SCACCHoops.com

Game Preview: Virginia vs West Virginia

by UniversityBall.org

Posted: 12/8/2015 11:32:59 AM


The difference between Virginia and West Virginia’s respective basketball programs is so great that it’s hard to believe that everyone is playing the same sport.

We’ve been good — great, even — at protecting the ball, turning it over just 11.6% of the time so far this season. WVU is dedicated to an all-out, not-remotely-subtle assault on opposing ballhandlers, pressuring constantly and forcing turnovers on a whopping 31.3% of opposing possessions. While we’ve enjoyed some transition opportunities this season, we still favor a deliberate style that sees us ranked 348th in adjusted tempo at 64.8 possessions per game. West Virginia prefers to take those turnovers to the house, averaging a 23rd-ranked 74.8. We’re sixth nationally in percentage of defensive rebounds we bring in (78.4%). WVU grabs the second-most of their own misses (a ridiculous 46.4% of offensive boards). We don’t really foul much (opponents take 35.8 FT per 100 FGs) and really don’t get fouled (26.2). WVU may as well field five Edward Scissorhands for all of the hacking they do (50.4, 332nd nationally) and gets to the line (47.6) as well, thanks to all of the transition chances generated by their defense. Our coach is proud of his values-based approach to life and basketball. Theirs is Bob Huggins.  It’s hard to find parallels.

The Mountaineers have run to their gaudy stats (88.4 points per game, 23.4 turnovers forced per contest, etc) without really going against top-shelf competition. The best teams they’ve beaten during their perfect start are Richmond (66th via KenPom) and San Diego State (56th), so this game in Madison Square Garden will serve as their first real challenge of the season, and a chance to prove themselves on a big stage. Devin Williams (18.7 ppg, 10.7 rpg) keys things when WVU has to play in the half court. He’s a horse inside — he’s shooting 71% in the basket area, and grabs 15.7% of offensive boards — but he’s turnover-prone enough (19 on the season in seven games) that he might get yippy against traps if we’re willing to risk getting burned (he’s also a solid passer). Daxter Miles and Jevon Carter are both super-athletic guys who feast in transition, and 6’7” senior Jonathan Holton is doing some scary things (10.4 points and 7.6 rebounds) in limited (19.4) minutes. No one on this team is a great shooter — they’ve made only 35 threes and are shooting just 28.5% from distance, with maybe one (backup guard Jaysean Paige, at 43.5%) guy I’d call scary — and I think they’ll struggle to score against the Pack Line in a half court setting if we can make them stay there. The big offensive rebounding numbers come primarily from Williams and Holton (who is securing a nuts-o 24.9% of WVU’s misses when he’s out there), and it will probably take a team approach (including guys like Malcolm, who have rebounded well this year) to slow it down.

The wide gap in styles makes this the greatest challenge that our guys have faced this season, and it will be made greater by London’s appendectomy either keeping him out or subtly off his game. The biggest key to this game is simple: WE CAN’T TURN THE BASKETBALL OVER. We can’t get sped up, as CTB would say, and we can’t let WVU try to convince us to play their game. There isn’t really a strategic calling card to the Huggins press — he deploys his personnel as best suited to disrupt WVU’s opponent — so I don’t really know what’s coming, and it doesn’t matter that much anyway, because he’ll change it up throughout. It’s basically this:

“We do whatever we have to do to matchup with what the opposition is doing and attack the ball,” Huggins said.

We’ll need to take some measures to prepare. You either disrupt a press with one guard who is a wizard (think Trey Burke of Michigan dismantling VCU’s Havoc) or a team of handlers you trust to do the right thing. We don’t have a Burke, so if I was in charge, I’d either start start three ball-handlers — London, Malcolm, and Darius, just like GW — or go to it early. Marial has played well with the starting group and I like him there, but he’s been dribbling higher and looser since hurting his wrist, and that’s a recipe for turnovers that isn’t so delicious. I like the idea of an extra dribbler on the court, but the real key to breaking a press is passes. Our guys will need to stay calm, play under control, and try to avoid adding the sidelines or baselines as a second defender.

The big men will also need to make good choices. Bigs do a lot of handling against pressure when a quick outlet pass gets the ball past the time line, and a lot of the turnovers caused by pressure end up coming from lumbering big men who try to do too much when the ball lands in their hands. AG, Tobey, and Isaiah (and very possibly Evan) have to pull it up and wait for their guards unless there’s an obvious play.

Eights:  
Virginia WVU
G: London Perrantes – 6’2” jr #32 Tarik Phillip – 6’3” jr #12
I’m going to assume that London’s healthy enough to play, and if he’s healthy enough to play, he’ll start. He did great work (9 assists, 3 TOs) vs VCU last year. Highest assist rate on the team, but they ping pong it all over the place — there’s no real PG. Phillip is 9-36 (0-11 on threes) from the floor this season.
G: Malcolm Brogdon – 6’6” sr #15 Jevon Carter – 6’2” so #2
Malc has a lot of responsibility (go-to guy for creating offense, secondary ball-handler, defense on Miles) tonight. The good news is that he’s 13-24 on threes over his last four games and is hot overall. Third on the team in scoring, second in assists per game, and tied for the team lead in steals. Not a very efficient player in the half court, but a blur on the break.
G: Marial Shayok – 6’5” so #4 Daxter Miles – 6’3” so #4
Marial has an assist in every game except one (GW) this season. He’s 1-8 from the floor over our last two games, which I think is directly connected to his bum wrist. The Mountaineers’ second-leading scorer, and he’s taken the most shots (97) on the team by far. Not a lot of range (25.9% on threes) but can get to the rim. Tied with Carter for the lead in steals.
F: Anthony Gill – 6’8” sr #13 Esa Ahmad – 6’8” fr #23
He’s been getting to the line a bunch, which helps, but did you know he’s only taken 10 shots in a game once this season? More, I say. Skilled big (3.1 apg) who can block shots (4.3%) and step out a little for jumpers. He platoons, but he’s good.
C: Mike Tobey – 7’0” sr #10 Devin Williams – 6’9” jr #41
I’m putting Tobey here because I’m almost positive that Jack Salt is not ready for the style of game WVU plays. It was refreshing to recently hear him say that he could be playing better. Grabbing 28.8% of defensive boards and 15.7% of OREBs after a 30% DREB mark last year. 17 of his 46 baskets have been putbacks.
G: Devon Hall – 6’5” so #0 F: Jonathan Holton – 6’7” sr #1
Devon has three turnovers in 154 minutes played this season. That’s awesome. Tonight will probably test that. If you’re into per-40 statistics, this guy is a destroyer. Rangy, athletic forward who can play either spot. Reminds me of Derrick Byars physically.
G: Darius Thompson – 6’4” so #51 G: Jaysean Paige – 6’2” sr #5
Regardless of London’s health, Darius will play a lot and be a major factor tonight. Side note: I’m still using that dunk against W&M in place of coffee. The token shooter: he’s the only Mountaineer with more three point tries than twos, and he’s made 43.5% of them.
F: Isaiah Wilkins – 6’7” so #21 F: Nathan Adrian – 6’9” jr #11
Wilkins has blocks in four of our last five games and is now blocking 7.1% of opposing shot attempts on the year. Turning the ball over on 38.6% of possessions used, but really doesn’t use many at all.

Verdict:
CTB and this particular group of players have experience with teams that try to make them uncomfortable with pressure or by changing the tempo, and I think that while it might get dicey for a bit while we find a rhythm, things will ultimately settle down. An OK Richmond team kept them to 64 possessions and only turned the ball over 14 times, and that was a close game up to the final moments. I think we’re deep enough that WVU’s long rotation (11 guys averaging double-digit minutes) won’t hurt, and mature enough as a roster to handle the pressure thrown at us — I’m almost (key: almost) more worried about WVU’s athletic wings getting to the rim in the half court, given how we’ve played recently. Anyway, if we can keep our wits about us, I think Virginia wins a close, physical game that could approach the three hour mark if the refs get out of hand.

 

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