Game Preview: Duke takes on FSU in Tallahassee

No. 9 Duke starts three-game road trip beginning with a game in Tallahassee against the Florida State Seminoles at 2pm on Saturday.

The Teams

Florida State Seminoles

The Seminoles enter Saturday with a 13-11 record and an ACC record of 7-6. Most recently Florida State lost on the road to the Virginia Tech Hokies 75-83. Florida State tops the ACC and ranks 27th in the nation with 15.0 turnovers forced per game, and is second in the conference and 17th nationally with 9.3 steals per game. They are fifth in the conference in blocks, 4th in scoring, 3rd in free throw attempts and second in 2pt FG%

Jamir Watkins leads FSU in points (348/14.5 ppg), rebounds (138/5.8 rpg), assists (67/2.8 apg) and steals (42/1.8 spg). Watkins ranks second in the ACC and 44th nationally with 113 made free throws, representing 32.5% of his total scoring. Darin Green also scores in double figures at 11.8 points per game.

Duke Blue Devils

Duke enters Saturday with a 19-5 overall record and an ACC record of 10-3, good for second in the conference. The Blue Devils are the only team to rank among the top four ACC statistical leaders in both scoring offense (2nd/80.5 points per game) and scoring defense (4th/67.7 points allowed per game). Duke ranks 12th nationally in fewest turnovers (9.5 per game) and 13th in assist/turnover ratio (1.64). Duke is 3rd in the conference in scoring, 4th in rebounds, assists and 3pt percentage.

Kyle Filipowski is 40 points away from becoming Duke’s 69th 1,000-point scorer. Filipowski ranks seventh in scoring (17.4 ppg), sixth in rebounding (8.3 rpg), third in blocked shots (1.8 bpg) and ninth in field goal percentage (.498). He leads the Blue Devils in scoring and rebounding. Senior guard Jeremy Roach comes in second in scoring and assists for Duke at 13.9 points per game and second in assists at 3.1 per contest. Jared McCain has grabbed double-digit rebounds in four of the last five games he and sophomore Mark Mitchell score the basketball at a 13.1 and 12.9 clip per game respectively. Tyrese Proctor leads the Blue Devils in assists at 3.5 per game to go along with his 10.0 points per game.

Thoughts

Duke will be at a decided disadvantage on the perimeter with a lack of true wings aside from Mark Mitchell on this team so the guards are going to have to play bigger on the boards and defensively overall. Duke will also need to defend the paint without fouling – something that they’ve struggled with this season so far. FSU gets a ton of their points from the charity stripe so defensively the Blue Devils have to factor that into their gameplan.

The Seminoles have lost four of their last five games, but they’ve managed to shoot the ball better than 50% in 3 of those five games. The problem is their opponents are blistering the Seminoles from beyond the arc. In 3 of their 4 last defeats their opponents are shooting 47% from beyond the arc even with adding in the loss to Louisville it still puts them at giving up 43% shooting from 3 in 4 of their last 5 games.

None of those defensive numbers take away from the year that VCU transfer Jamir Watkins is having, he’s the type of player that has given the Blue Devils nightmares this season. A scoring wing with size who has a confident shot. Duke will have to find a way to contain Watkins without allowing Darin Green to get going from 3 – he’s their best shooter from beyond the arc at 38% and while the team has struggled overall that could change against the Blue Devils in what feels like a must win game for FSU. Expect the crowd to be deafening. The Blue Devils will have to find a way to stay connected in this atmosphere and overall they have to play solid defense and when Florida State turns the ball over – make them pay. Virginia Tech made a living off of FSU turnovers racking up 23 points off of the miscues of Leonard Hamiltons team.