The 2013 ACC championship game features a team that is no stranger to the game in Florida State, making their fourth appearance, and a team that was one of the teams least expected to make it in Duke. The Seminoles are 12-0, and a win here would cement a birth in the BCS National Championship Game. The Blue Devils are 10-2, and a win here will put them in the Orange Bowl, their first trip to a current BCS bowl since World War II. Both teams have surpassed expectations this year. While some people predicted Florida State to win the Atlantic, few (if any) predicted an undefeated season. Duke was even more of a remarkable story. They were predicted to finish near the bottom of the ACC Coastal Division, and have not lost a game since September 21.
Florida State
Florida State's offense is based upon a three headed rushing attack, and a soon to be Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback. The running back trio of Devonta Freeman, Karlos Williams, and James Wilder Jr. have rushed for over 2000 yards and 30 touchdowns, while averaging 6.9 yards per carry. The team ranks in the top 10 in yards per carry and rushing touchdowns. Even quarterback Jameis Winston can run when needed. He has rushed for three touchdowns this year, and even ran the ball 14 times in their win over Boston College earlier this year.
As for Winston's passing ability, that is the area that will win him the Heisman. Winston has two games this year where he has completed at least 90% of his passes, another game with a completion percentage of at least 80%, and two more of at least 70%. In short, he is a pretty accurate passer. And he has four really good options to throw the ball to. He can stretch the field with Rashad Greene and Kenny Shaw, use the middle of the field with Nick O'Leary, or lob it up to Kelvin Benjamin, and let him do the work.
Like usual, the Seminoles defense is really strong. It ranked fourth in total defense, and has allowed the fewest passing yards in the nation, and intercepted the most passes as well. The individual stats will not wow you, as no one has more than 67 tackles or five sacks, or four interceptions. But 16 players recorded a sack, and the same amount of players had at least one interception. In short, this is a really good all around defense.
Duke
There is a saying that if you have two quarterbacks, that you really do not have one. The Blue Devils defy that logic. They use the two quarterback system very effectively. Anthony Boone is the starter, and does the bulk of the work, and Brandon Connette will come in from time to time, especially in short yardage situations. Like Florida State, the Blue Devils will use multiple options to run the ball, and counting the quarterbacks, you could see six different players carry the ball. None of them average more than nine carries per game, but they use those carries effectively. The Blue Devils have rushed for 24 touchdowns, and Connette has 13 of them. He actually ranks tied for 19th nationally in that category.
Duke's passing game relies on a lot of short passes, and yards after the catch. Anthony Boone 66.2% completion percentage ranks in the top 20 nationally. He has a great receiving option on Jamison Crowder, who has three games with at least 10 receptions, and has caught at least four passes in every game this season. Crowder also has six 100 yard receiving games. Braxton Deaver and Brandon Braxton are the two other primary options in the passing game. Both have 36 receptions.
The Blue Devils defense is middle of the pack nationally. They are better against the pass than they are against the run. Unlike Florida State, the Blue Devils have players who had big time tackle totals. Three different defenders have at least 100 tackles on the season, led by David Helton with 114. He has three games with at least 10 tackles, including a 19 tackle effort against Virginia Tech. Jeremy Cash and Kelby Brown also recorded 100 tackles for the Blue Devils. Their fourth leading tackler, Kenny Anunike, led the team in sacks with six, and tackles for loss with 13.5.
How Will They Win?
Florida State will not need to much different in order to win. Let's be honest, It is difficult to tell an undefeated team how to play differently, because what they do has worked so well. Just keep using the three headed running attack, and stretch the field with the passing game, and continue to play the suffocating defense. Duke's best chance to win will be to try to stretch the field with the passing game as much as they can. They may need to force some turnovers defensively as well to keep them in the game.
Prediction
Duke is the sentimental favorite, but Florida State is the actual favorite. The Seminoles are favored by 29 points in Vegas. I would love to see Duke keep it close, but I do not see how they will be able to get a lot going offensively because what they do best is what Florida State's defense does as well. I think Florida State will win this game comfortably, but they will just miss covering the point spread. Florida State 45, Duke 17
