Sunday is an NFL Sunday, all 12 games of it, and the early window opens with the kind of game that decides playoff seeding in November. Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, 1:00 PM ET: the GameSim projection has the Ravens 31.6, the Bills 28.8, a 2.8-point road call across 1,060 simulations, and a combined 60.3 points, the highest total on the card.
My take: when the sims hand a road team more than 31 points in Buffalo in November, they are not hedging, they are telling you this offense travels. Buffalo keeping it within a field goal at home is the other half of the story, because a 31.6 to 28.8 call is a fourth-quarter game, not a coronation. If you like points, this is the window to plant yourself in front of the television. If you like defense, the sims suggest you look elsewhere this afternoon.
Sunday night: the sims pick Washington over Philadelphia, and not by a little
The nightcap is the boldest call on the board. Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, 8:20 PM ET: the GameSim projection has Washington 26.6, Philadelphia 17.6, a 9.0-point home call across 1,060 simulations.
My take: nine points against the Eagles on Sunday night is the sims planting a flag. Washington at home, in prime time, with the model expecting the Commanders to hold Philadelphia under 18 points, is the kind of number that either looks prophetic by midnight or gets laughed at by halftime. There is no middle ground here, and that is exactly why it leads the night. If the sims are right, the NFC East race just got a lot more interesting. If they are wrong, well, that is what the report card at the end of tomorrow's article is for.
The late window: Kansas City at Denver, and an all-Los Angeles showdown
Two more games carry real weight at 4:25 PM ET. Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: the GameSim projection has the Chiefs 21.5, the Broncos 16.1, a 5.4-point road call. My take: Kansas City winning by more than a field goal in Denver is the sims saying the Chiefs' road form is real, altitude and all, and Denver's path is keeping this a low-scoring grind and stealing it late.
Then the battle for Los Angeles. Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 PM ET: the GameSim projection has the Rams 26.3, the Chargers 16.0, a 10.3-point home call, the widest margin on the card. My take: double digits in a shared-city matchup is the sims telling you the Rams are simply the better team right now, and the Chargers need something out of the ordinary, a short field, a defensive score, a special teams swing, to make this a game in the fourth quarter.
The early window: a blowout call, a coin flip, and two upset picks
The 1:00 PM ET window is packed. Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals: the GameSim projection has Cincinnati 31.1, Tennessee 14.6, a 16.5-point home call, the biggest blowout number of the day. Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville 30.6, Indianapolis 17.5, a 13.1-point home call. Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets: the Jets 28.3, the Raiders 16.7. Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas 29.2, Arizona 22.4. Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Detroit 24.3, Minnesota 19.0.
Then the two games that could make the afternoon interesting. Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Atlanta 22.7, Tampa Bay 21.5, a 1.2-point road edge, which is basically a coin flip with helmets on. And the upset call: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: Cleveland 21.1, Pittsburgh 17.6, a 3.5-point road call for the Browns in a rivalry where road wins are never cheap. My take: the card is chalky in the early window, which makes the two close ones the ones to watch. Atlanta at Tampa Bay could go either way on one drive, and Cleveland in Pittsburgh is the number most likely to start an argument before kickoff.
One more for the road: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, 4:25 PM ET: New England 26.2, Miami 23.3, a 2.9-point road call. My take: a field goal game in Miami, in November, with the road team favored, is the sims saying the Patriots travel better than the standings suggest. Keep an eye on the fourth quarter here too.
The report card: 15-for-18 on yesterday's featured card, and the upset call landed
State it plainly first: yesterday's featured college card went 15-for-18 on called winners, a strong night by any measure, with the headliner the one big exception. USC beat Ohio State 30-18 after the sims had the top-ranked Buckeyes by 5.6, so the GameSim line took its lumps on the marquee game, and South Carolina beat Oklahoma 42-25 to flip another ranked call, while Iowa State edged Oklahoma State 51-49 in a shootout the sims had going the other way.
But the good news is real too, and it is worth naming just as plainly. The upset call landed: Syracuse beat SMU 30-27, just as the sims said the unranked Orange would. The near-exact scores piled up: Louisville beat Stanford 52-24 against a projected 51.7 for the Cardinals, Texas beat Mississippi State 31-3 against a projected 31.5, and BYU beat Arizona State 27-20 with the Sun Devils landing on exactly 20 points against a projected 20.2. The rest of the card mostly held serve: Georgia beat Florida 27-8, Iowa shut out Wisconsin 30-0 to land the coin flip call, Indiana beat Minnesota 23-16, UCLA shut out Nevada 27-0, TCU beat Kansas 22-16, Wake Forest routed Virginia 51-7, Miami beat UNC 38-35, Missouri beat Arkansas 34-10, Notre Dame beat Navy 35-13, Michigan beat Rutgers 28-21, and Ole Miss routed Auburn 45-15. Fifteen winners right, three wrong, a flipped headliner, and three team scores nailed almost exactly.
GameSim line: Baltimore by less than a field goal in a Buffalo shootout, Washington by nine over Philadelphia on Sunday night, and Kansas City and the Rams holding serve in the late window.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and none of the games today have been played yet. Yesterday the featured calls went 15-for-18 on winners, with three team scores nailed almost exactly. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong today.
