October 23 brings two cross-conference NHL games with very different kinds of tension: a red-hot Tampa Bay Lightning team visiting the Colorado Avalanche, and a matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and Chicago Blackhawks where the model sees only a narrow gap. Colorado and Chicago each have home ice; neither gets a simple assignment.
Lightning-Avalanche: firepower on both sides
Tampa Bay arrives at 7-2 after a convincing 6-2 win at Vegas, while Colorado is 5-5 and looking to make home ice count. The Lightning have been scoring across their recent schedule, and Nikita Kucherov has been central to that attack. His latest outing featured a goal and two assists, and GameSim projects another strong contribution: 0.4 goals, 1.1 assists and 1.5 points.
Colorado’s answer starts with Nathan MacKinnon, projected for 0.5 goals, 1.3 assists and 1.8 points. Martin Necas is forecast for 0.6 goals and 1.3 points, with Gabriel Landeskog and Cale Makar also among the Avalanche players expected to make an impact. Brandon Hagel, projected for 0.8 goals, gives Tampa Bay another scoring threat alongside Kucherov.
Our model gives Colorado a 56% win probability and projects a 4.8-3.8 Avalanche result. That forecast points to an entertaining test of Tampa Bay’s early-season form against Colorado’s ability to turn its home attack into an advantage. View the Lightning-Avalanche prediction.
Canadiens-Blackhawks: a tight call in Chicago
Montreal heads to United Center at 4-5 after a 4-3 overtime loss to San Jose, a game in which Juraj Slafkovsky recorded a goal and an assist. Chicago is 3-6 and coming off a 4-0 defeat to Dallas. Both teams have a chance to reset, but the Blackhawks will need more offense to turn their home date into a response.
GameSim projects Chicago to win 3.6-2.9, with a 55% win probability. Montreal’s Slafkovsky is projected for 0.5 goals, 1.0 assist and 1.5 points, while defenseman Lane Hutson is forecast for 1.0 assist. For Chicago, Tyler Bertuzzi is projected for 1.3 points, with Anton Frondell and Patrick Kane each at 1.2. Those estimates set up an intriguing contrast: Montreal’s recent overtime loss showed its scoring options, while Chicago’s challenge is to create a sharper finish after being shut out.
The prediction is close enough to make every scoring chance matter, especially if the Canadiens can carry their recent offensive rhythm into Chicago. Explore the Canadiens-Blackhawks prediction.
Detailed projected player stats for all games are available exclusively to GameSim+ subscribers. Learn more and subscribe.
