Chicago is about to take over the WNBA calendar. All-Star weekend runs July 23-27, with the Skills Challenge and 3-Point Contest Friday at Wintrust Arena and the main event Saturday night at the United Center: Team Spoon vs. Team Coop on ABC (8:30 p.m. ET).
Caitlin Clark and A'ja Wilson headline Team Spoon. Paige Bueckers and Breanna Stewart lead Team Coop. The league's 30th anniversary party is real.
Then the regular season snaps back on Tuesday, July 28, and the second-half title race gets serious.
We ran the return slate (plus a midseason power check) through the MyGameSim WNBA Game Simulator, the same possession-by-possession engine behind our daily predictions. 100 full simulations per matchup. 1,300 sims total.
Here's what the model says heading into All-Star weekend.
Midseason power check: Who's actually #1?
Standings entering the break: the Minnesota Lynx sit alone atop the league at 21-6. The Las Vegas Aces and Golden State Valkyries are right behind. Indiana and Dallas are in the thick of the playoff hunt. New York is fighting to stay relevant.
We put five of those storylines on neutral courts (no home advantage), 100 sims each.
What the sim says: The top of the West is a real fight. Minnesota's scoring edge is only about two points per game on average. This is not a blowout profile. If you're looking for a Finals preview, start here.
More neutral-court power matchups
Minnesota separates from Golden State in a hurry (75% win rate, nearly 10 points per game). But against Las Vegas and in the East rivalries, the model keeps things tight. The second half is wide open under the top line.
Tuesday, July 28: The return slate
Five games tip off after the break. We simulated each with home-court advantage on, the way they'll actually be played.
ESPN spotlight: Fever @ Storm
National TV. Caitlin Clark's Indiana squad visits a Seattle team that just took an 86-76 loss to Minnesota on the final night before the break. The sim does not treat this like a home-court trap.
Road dogs? Not in this model. Indiana is the clear sim favorite on ESPN even without home court: a 4.3-point average edge and nearly two wins out of every three samples. If you're looking for the game of the night Tuesday, this is it.
The rest of Tuesday
| Matchup | Avg Score | Favorite Win % | Close % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto @ Minnesota | Tempo 85.2 - Lynx 93.7 | Lynx 69% | 16% |
| Portland @ Las Vegas | Fire 86.0 - Aces 92.4 | Aces 64% | 15% |
| New York @ L.A. | Liberty 84.8 - Sparks 89.6 | Sparks 65% | 16% |
| Connecticut @ Washington | Sun 73.3 - Mystics 80.7 | Mystics 74% | 11% |
Two surprises worth flagging:
- Los Angeles over New York: the sim gives the Sparks a solid home edge (65%) despite the Liberty brand. That's a trap-game profile for New York coming out of the break.
- Washington over Connecticut: the Mystics are the strongest Tuesday favorite in the model (74%), in the lowest-scoring projected game on the board (~154 total).
See all July 28 predictions | Sim Sparks vs. Liberty
Wednesday-Thursday: Contenders on national TV
Dream @ Wings (USA Network), Wednesday
Atlanta @ Dallas | 100 sims
Virtually identical averages. Paige Bueckers' Wings get a slight home nod, but this is a coin flip with a lean: exactly the kind of game that decides seeding in August.
Valkyries @ Mercury (USA / CNBC), Wednesday
Expansion-era Golden State keeps proving the standings aren't a fluke. Even on the road in Phoenix, the Valkyries are a 51/49 toss-up in our engine, and nearly one in four sims finishes within three points.
Liberty @ Aces (Prime Video), Thursday
New York's week does not get easier. After a tough projected road game in L.A., the Liberty walk into A'ja Wilson and a Las Vegas home favorite at 66%. If the Liberty want to climb the East, this is a measuring-stick stretch.
Bottom line before tip-off in Chicago
Enjoy All-Star weekend. Team Spoon vs. Team Coop should be a show. When the league comes back Tuesday:
- Minnesota remains the sim's top dog, but Las Vegas is close enough to spoil the story
- Indiana is the Tuesday national-TV play, favored on the road in Seattle
- New York's west-coast swing (L.A., then Vegas) looks rough in the model
- Valkyries-Mercury is the week's purest coin flip
Watch the All-Star Game. Then come back Tuesday and check the board.
