Training camps are opening across the NFL. Veterans report league-wide by July 28, rosters are being trimmed from 90 players, and every fan base is asking the same question: Are we actually good enough to win this division?
We ran 100 simulations per matchup through the MyGameSim NFL Game Simulator to find out. Each division's preseason favorite hosted its top contender at home, using the brand-new 2026-27 NFL rosters.
New for GameSim+ Subscribers: 2026-27 NFL Rosters
The updated 2026-27 season rosters are now live for subscribers in the NFL Game Simulator. Select 2026-27 as the season year to sim with current training-camp rosters, depth charts, and player ratings.
800 total simulations. Eight divisions. One question: do the preseason favorites hold up when the games are played on the field?
AFC: Division Favorite vs. Contender
AFC East: Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Preseason narrative: ESPN's Football Power Index gives Buffalo a 67.6% chance to win the AFC East. New England is the clear No. 2.
What the sim says: Remarkably aligned with FPI. Buffalo wins exactly two-thirds of home sims against New England with the updated 2027 rosters. The Patriots hang around in close games but lose the scoring battle by about 4.5 points per sim.
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Preseason narrative: Joe Burrow and Cincinnati remain Baltimore's toughest obstacle in the North.
Ravens home vs. Bengals - 100 sims (2027 rosters)
What the sim says: The most dominant result in the AFC. Baltimore wins nearly three out of four sims and averages almost 9 more points per game. This is the division where the favorite looks most secure heading into camp.
AFC South: Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Preseason narrative: Houston enters camp as the South favorite after last year's breakout.
What the sim says: A lower-scoring division matchup, but Houston controls it. Nearly half of games are decided by a touchdown or less, so Jacksonville isn't out of it - but the Texans win two out of three at home.
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Preseason narrative: Kansas City still sets the bar out West. The Chargers are the most common challenger.
What the sim says: The tightest AFC race on paper. Kansas City wins just 54% of home sims against the Chargers with the 2027 rosters. If you're looking for a division that could flip on a single late-season game, start in the AFC West.
NFC: Division Favorite vs. Contender
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Preseason narrative: The East is rarely settled before December. Dallas is the perennial foil.
What the sim says: Philadelphia looks like the class of the NFC East in the model. The Eagles win nearly three out of four home sims and outscore Dallas by more than 7 points per game on average.
NFC North: Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Preseason narrative: FPI has Detroit narrowly ahead of Green Bay in division odds.
Lions home vs. Packers - 100 sims
What the sim says: Detroit holds a clear edge, but more than half of sims are decided by a touchdown or less. The North should be competitive deep into the season.
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Preseason narrative: Tampa has owned this division. Atlanta is the top challenger on paper.
What the sim says: The biggest surprise in the data. Atlanta wins 55% of sims even on Tampa's home field with the 2027 rosters. The Falcons actually outscore the Bucs by nearly 1.5 points per game. The NFC South may be wide open.
NFC West: Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
Preseason narrative: The Rams are the preseason Super Bowl betting favorite after adding Myles Garrett. Seattle is the defending NFC champion.
What the sim says: A perfect coin flip. Despite LA's Super Bowl hype, the sim engine can't separate these teams at home. Seattle wins half the time, and more than half of games come down to a single score. The NFC West will be a dogfight.
Training Camp Takeaways
| Division | Favorite | Contender | Favorite Win % | Avg Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC North | Ravens | Bengals | 73.0% | 35.1 - 26.5 |
| NFC East | Eagles | Cowboys | 72.0% | 32.8 - 25.4 |
| AFC East | Bills | Patriots | 67.0% | 32.5 - 28.0 |
| AFC South | Texans | Jaguars | 66.0% | 27.3 - 21.8 |
| NFC North | Lions | Packers | 65.0% | 31.3 - 26.2 |
| AFC West | Chiefs | Chargers | 54.0% | 30.4 - 27.6 |
| NFC West | Rams | Seahawks | 50.0% | 29.2 - 27.8 |
| NFC South | Buccaneers | Falcons | 45.0% | 27.8 - 29.3 |
- Most secure favorites: Baltimore (73%) and Philadelphia (72%) project as the most comfortable division leaders in the sims.
- Coin flips: The AFC West (Chiefs 54%) and NFC West (Rams 50%) are essentially toss-ups against their top contenders.
- Upset alert: Atlanta wins 55% of sims at Tampa Bay. The NFC South favorite doesn't look like a favorite in the model.
- FPI validation: Buffalo's 67% sim win rate nearly mirrors ESPN's 67.6% division probability - the model and the market agree on the AFC East.
How We Ran These Sims
- Engine: MyGameSim NFL simulator - play-by-play football with full rosters and home-field advantage
- Rosters: 2026-27 season (year = 2027) - now available to GameSim+ subscribers
- Volume: 100 simulations per division matchup (800 total)
- Setup: Division favorite at home vs. top contender
- Date run: July 10, 2026
Want to run your own camp preview? Pick any two teams, set the season to 2027, and sim the matchup. Subscribers can also customize rosters, bench players, and build What-If scenarios.
NFL Predictions | GameSim+ (2027 Rosters) | All NFL Team Pages
