Miami came within a whisker of the promised land last season. First and ten, Indiana 41-yard line. Fifty-one seconds left of the College Football Playoff Final. Hurricanes trailing by six.
Carson Beck took the snap, scanned left, and saw what he thought was his opening — Keelan Marion down the sideline against cornerback Jamari Sharpe, a safety lurking behind, but maybe, maybe, catchable with the right throw. He let it go. Marion was still running. Sharpe high-pointed it at the 15-yard line and came down with both hands clamped around leather. No timeouts. The clock bled out. Indiana 27, Miami 21. The Hurricanes had climbed from a 2024 trainwreck to the CFP National Championship, and it ended with one throw into double coverage — the first turnover either team committed all night.
Four months on from that heartbreaker, attention is already shifting towards 2026, and the ACC's finest are assembling their arsenal, ready to mount another assault on the crown. But who are the favorites to win the conference next season, and crucially, do they have any playoff hopes? Let's take a look.
Miami Hurricanes
Beck, Rueben Bain Jr., Akheem Mesidor, and Francis Mauigoa are all gone from Miami's stellar cast of 2025. And still the Canes remain the betting favorite by a country mile. The bookies position them as a mightily short -140 to win the conference again next term, and while the popular No Vig Fair Calculator at Thunderpick shows that their true odds lie closer to -120, they remain streets clear of the chasing pack.
The portal class ranks in the top five nationally. Jackson Cantwell arrives as Mauigoa's direct replacement as the second-ranked offensive tackle in the country, one generational talent replacing another. Cooper Barkate follows quarterback Darian Mensah from Duke, bringing 72 receptions, 1,106 yards, and seven touchdowns to a receiving corps already anchored by Malachi Toney. Vandrevius Jacobs, Cam Vaughn, Jarquez Carter from Ohio State, Damon Wilson rushing off the edge — this roster was assembled to get over the final hurdle.
But Mensah is the question nobody in Coral Gables wants to answer publicly. First Cam Ward. Then Carson Beck. Now, Mensah — Cristobal's third consecutive transfer quarterback experiment in as many seasons. Each arrival was justified by the circumstances; each departure created a new void. If Mensah delivers an ACC title, the model is vindicated entirely. If he falters in November, the scrutiny will be savage.
SMU Mustangs
The Cal loss wasn't a blip. The Bears jumped to a 31-14 lead, SMU clawed back to within three, and then Cal sealed it — knocking the Mustangs out of ACC Championship contention in the regular-season finale and exposing exactly what still separates this program from the conference's elite: late-game execution when the pressure is at its peak. Twenty-four points per game in the ACC understates how genuinely dangerous Lashlee's offence is in ideal conditions. The problem is that October and November rarely deliver ideal conditions.
Kevin Jennings' return should be framed as a complicated relief. He's supremely talented — four touchdowns against Louisville in a statement win early in the 2025 season demonstrated exactly that. But the Penn State playoff collapse from 2024, with three first-half turnovers, still shadows him in the national consciousness. The offensive coordinator departure this winter, however, tears open a genuine structural question: whose system is Jennings running now, and does Lashlee trust him to manage a transition without regression?
The six-week home stretch in the back half of the schedule buys some margin for error. Marquee tests against Florida State, Louisville, and Notre Dame will determine whether SMU has genuinely leveled up — or whether +675 is already pricing in the ceiling.
Louisville Cardinals
Jeff Brohm sweated through the portal window, watching Isaac Brown's name circulate on transfer lists before the running back recommitted. That drama — a coach publicly calling a retention "huge," a player quietly weighing his future against loyalty — is the human texture behind what looks on paper like one of the most comprehensive offseasons in the ACC.
Thirty portal additions strengthen the pack. Keyjuan Brown is staying to form as arguably the deepest running back room in the conference. The infrastructure Brohm has constructed in Louisville is genuinely remarkable for a program that has historically found creative ways to collapse when the lights get brightest.
The Ole Miss opener will either validate that infrastructure immediately or fracture confidence before conference play begins. And then there's Briggs Cherry — a freshman handed the keys to a program with legitimate championship ambitions. That quarterback situation is the single variable that determines everything. Resolve it decisively before fall camp ends, and the Cardinals could be the dark horse that genuinely derails Miami. Leave it murky into September, and Brohm's offseason masterwork unravels before October arrives.
Clemson Tigers
A program ranked fourth nationally in August, stumbling to 7-5 — with a loss to a Syracuse squad barely above .500 — indicates Clemson is a program with a major identity crisis. Dabo Swinney adding a school-record 10 portal players is the loudest possible admission that the model that built a dynasty no longer functions in isolation. Has Swinney fully embraced the portal era — or is it already too late?
Chris Johnson Jr., arriving from SMU after starting his career at Miami, carries an almost novelistic irony: one of the ACC's shiftiest running backs, forged in the programs Clemson desperately needs to beat, now wearing orange. Chad Morris as offensive coordinator is either a genuine evolution, or a last resort roll of the dice on a unit ranked 94th in returning production.
The defensive foundation is real — Penn State's Elliot Washington II, Auburn's Donovan Starr, reinforcing a secondary that ranked 26th nationally in returning production. But football games are won with points, and until Morris proves his scheme works in live action, Death Valley's faith will remain fragile.
