It seems to always be one of the most important questions in any sport, especially when relating to the finals of a tournament. Over the years there has been a lot of speculation by sports commentators about the home advantage and today even more so by fans and betting houses. There does seem to be a large advantage of playing a home game in most sports but does that hold true in basketball?
What Do the Teams Know?
Since the NBA Finals format change in 2014, there has been a different approach to the way teams approach the finals. Teams will often rest their best players to avoid harder teams in playoffs. The same seems to be a popular move for having a home advantage in the playoffs. However, a worse record puts your team at risk. When the team record is lower, you again risk home advantage.
There seems to be clear evidence that teams go out of their way to get the highest home advantage early on in the tournament. Especially when they are clear favorites for the playoffs or are progressing better than other teams.
Why the Sudden Emphasis on Resting Players?
Over the years the NBA has not only changed slightly a lot more statistical evidence drives how teams play the game. The statistical plays of each player and the team as a whole are taken into account for every game.
Statistical analysis from past NBA season is also a big factor. We see clear trends under certain conditions and teams wish to reap all the rewards of having statistical advantages. Beyond that, some of the season’s formats have changed over the years and that has allowed more opportunities for teams who follow the stats.
What Are the Most Important Numbers to Consider?
The first thing to consider is the difference between the regular season and the Playoffs. The Finals tend to have stronger statistical advantages than the regular season.
During the regular season teams only have a 57% advantage when playing a home game. This number does not seem high to some but is still significant to teams and people betting on the final outcome.
On the other hand, the finals have a 71% overall advantage for the home side. This is an overwhelming number that most people would not bet against and neither would a franchise NBA team. Teams also have an almost 80% home advantage in Game 1 and Game 7. Only four teams in the history of the NBA have won a Game 7 away from home. The final game 7 has only occurred 19 times in history and 15 times it was won by the home side.
Since 2014, the NBA went back to their old format which made the home side almost certain to win every Final. A small exception was during the last season when courts were not allowed at full capacity. In 2021 we can expect full capacity NBA Finals.
Check out these Betways NBA Finals Odds.
