Game Preview: NC State at Duke - SCACCHoops.com

Game Preview: NC State at Duke

by DukeBlogger.com

Posted: 2/6/2016 8:03:32 AM


Duke defeated Georgia Tech, 80-71 on Tuesday to quiet the critics a bit. Duke fell from the Top 25 for the first time since November 2007 after losing to Miami-Florida on January 25. After a week of rest, they managed to get back on track from Atlanta. NC State is coming off a tough, 77-73 loss at Florida State, to drop them to 2-8 in the ACC. While NC State is looking at a possible NIT berth, Duke at 25th in the RPI rankings, will get a berth in the NCAA Tournament, unless they fall badly in the second half of conference play.

Duke has the second-most efficient offense in league play, thanks primarily to its ability to shoot the ball. Obviously, this is an item that is and will always be more important than anything else. The Blue Devils also opened league play with a forgiving schedule, they are 5-4, but they have zero wins against ACC teams in the Pomeroy top 50. Pomeroy rates it as the 10th-easiest league slate to date. Surely, the scheduling on the Duke side had to plan for what some are calling a down year.

This is just a really so-so Duke team. The Devils can score with anybody, but the modest offensive peripherals have to be a concern given the schedule. You can still make a March run with an elite offense and sub-standard defense; Notre Dame went to the Elite Eight with a similar profile last year. (Notre Dame also barely escaped its opening-round game.) However, it is not ideal.

Duke Offense — Four Factors eFG% TO% OR% FT Rate
2015-16 Overall (National Rank) 55.1 (18) 14.5 (5) 36.4 (25) 41.1 (82)
2015-16 ACC Only (Conference Rank) 56.4 (1) 16.1 (5) 31.9 (9) 35.9 (9)

Jefferson is an x-factor of sorts going into the last month of the season, but the offense does not need more support. What can he do for the defense?

Duke Defense — Four Factors eFG% TO% OR% FT Rate
2015-16 Overall (National Rank) 48.7 (119) 17.4 (233) 32.8 (287) 24.9 (7)
2015-16 ACC Only (Conference Rank) 49.1 (6) 15.1 (12) 35.2 (14) 24.3 (1)

Duke needed a win badly on Tuesday, after losing four of their last five games. As we keep noting, the loss of senior Amile Jefferson to a foot injury has taken away their top rebounder and best post player. They also did not have head coach Mike Krzyzewski, who was out due to illness, but he was not really missed. Associate head coach Jeff Capel took over against the Yellow Jackets and did a stupendous job. Duke outrebounded a beefy Georgia Tech team by one and shot 48.3 percent from the floor and 11-of-23 from beyond the arc. Allen led the Blue Devils with 27 points, four assists, and seven rebounds. Guard Derryck Thornton added 15 points, while Ingram added 14 points and 10 boards.

Allen leads the Blue Devils in scoring with 20.6 points per game, while shooting 49.5 percent from the field and 41.8 percent from beyond the arc. Ingram adds 17.0 points and 6.6 rebounds, while shooting 48.2 percent from the field. Duke shoots 47.7 percent from the field and 38.5 percent from beyond the arc, while allowing teams to shoot 43.6 percent from the field and 34.7 percent from 3-point range. They rank 10th in the nation in points per game at 84.7.

NC State allowed Florida State to shoot 52.6 percent from the field in their four-point road loss on Monday from Tallahassee. They wasted a great performance from guard Anthony Barber, who scored 31 points on 10-of-17 shooting. On Jan. 23, NC State met the Blue Devils at home, and fell 88-78 from PNC Arena. NC State shot 51.7 percent from the field and Barber led five players in double figures with 19 points. But once again, the defense struggled, as Duke hit 54.2 percent of their shots and 40.0 percent (10-25) from beyond the arc. They could not stop guard Grayson Allen (28 points, 11-of-17) or freshman Brandon Ingram (25 points, 10-of-16).

NC State averages 75.1 points per game and shoots 42.7 percent from the floor. They allow teams to shoot 37 percent from beyond the arc (302nd) and 42.2 percent from the field. Barber leads the Wolfpack in scoring with 23.4 points per game and assists with 4.6 per game. Forward Abdul-Malik Abu adds 12.7 points and 8.4 rebounds per game.

Duke crushed NC State in the first game on January 23 by 10. The Wolfpack are 3-4 on the road, while Duke is 10-2 at home. The Blue Devils shoot the ball over 39 percent from beyond the arc at home, while NC State struggles to defend the 3 overall, allowing teams to shoot 34.7 percent from the field.

I feel good about this game and will go with Duke by 12.

This article was originally published at http://www.DukeBlogger.com. If you are interested in sharing your website's content with SCACCHoops.com, Contact Us.

 



Recent Articles from DukeBlogger.com


Recommended Articles



SCACC Hoops has no affiliation to the NCAA or the ACC
Team logos are trademarks of their respective organizations (more/credits)

Privacy Policy