The 4-seed Duke Blue Devils were tested in their first two games of the NCAA Tournament but were able to advance after defeating the 13-seed UNC-Wilmington Seahawks, 93-85, and the 12-seed Yale Bulldogs, 71-64.
On the season, the Blue Devils have been led by Grayson Allen (21.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.3 SPG), Brandon Ingram (17.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.1 SPG), and Marshall Plumlee (8.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 1.1 APG). Offensively, Duke is averaging 81.5 PPG on 46.1% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from beyond the arc. The Blue Devils average 9.2 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.35. Defensively, Duke is allowing their opponents to average of 72.2 PPG on 44.3% shooting. The Blue Devils have a rebound margin of -0.4 and a turnover margin of 2.2.
The 1-seed Oregon Ducks had little trouble defeating the 16-seed Holy Cross Crusaders, 91-52, this past Friday, but had all they could handle with the 8-seed Saint Joseph’s Hawks in their 69-64 victory late on Sunday night. On the season, Oregon has been led by Dillon Brooks (16.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.1 SPG), Elgin Cook (14.5 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.4 SPG), and Tyler Dorsey (13.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.9 APG). Offensively, Oregon is averaging 78.9 PPG on 46.8% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from beyond the arc. The Ducks average 6.8 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.18. Defensively, Oregon is holding their opponents to an average of 68.5 PPG on 42.2% shooting. The Ducks have a rebound margin of 3.4 and a turnover ratio of 2.8.
Duke displayed how they can put up points in a hurry in the first half against the Yale Bulldogs, but also showed a bit of their weaknesses, which includes a defense that ranks just 187th in scoring defense and bench that is not very deep. Oregon has been one of the hottest teams over the last two months and although the Hawks defense was able to slow down the Ducks offense, Oregon is still one of the better offensives teams in the country. Oregon is one of the most athletic teams in the country and although I think Duke will be able to keep up with them early, I think their lack of depth will cost them in this one and that the Ducks will pull away in the second half.
Keys to Watch For
Keys for Oregon
Oregon’s versatility is what has made the Ducks the top seed in their bracket.
- Forward Elgin Cook does not try to do too much on the floor, and that is one of his strengths.
- Cook is a beast who can score at the bucket, he plays through contact, he can rebound and he is a quality passer.
- Forward Dillon Brooks can score inside and out, and he showed his explosiveness by going for 25 in the second round vs. St. Joe’s.
- Guard Tyler Dorsey will be critical vs. Duke.
- He, along with fellow guard Casey Benson, will be key to keeping Duke’s athletic guards out of the lane on defense, and Dorsey can make an impact from beyond the 3-point line.
- Oregon is not blessed with great size, but the Ducks make up for it with quickness and athleticism, and they love to push the tempo and take teams out of their comfort zone.
- Their long arms, however, make the Ducks disruptive on defense.
Keys for Duke
The Blue Devils are not blessed with experience from top to bottom, but this is a mature team that has a different focus right now.
- Guards Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram can both score inside and out, and Allen’s range forces opponents to guard him from deep, creating room to roam for his teammates.
- Ingram uses his outside game to set up his drives to the bucket, and on defense, his length makes him a disruptive presence.
- Center Marshall Plumlee was a factor in the first two rounds, and he has to stay out of foul trouble to keep Dukes’ way-too-thin bench from being stretched.
- If Duke plays solid defense and hits some early shots, the Blue Devils will be in good shape.
Prediction
Oregon is exactly the kind of team that gives Duke fits. The Ducks are athletic and are willing to run with the Blue Devils, but they also can clamp down on defense when they need to. Duke is going to push Oregon to the limit, but look for Cook and Brooks to take over late and pull out a win, 85-80.
