Saturday felt like a real separation day in the ACC. Virginia and Clemson joined UNC and Dule as NCAA locks barring unforeseen collapses with wins from FSU and Syracuse.
A slew of middle-of-the-pack ACC teams fell away.
Virginia Tech took a crippling loss at Notre Dame. Syracuse couldn’t get a much-needed quality win over Clemson. Florida State couldn’t get their much needed quality win over Virginia. Miami couldn’t get a Q1 win over UNC. All were at home too. NC State was right there at Wake Forest, but couldn’t close.
All those teams had NET rankings at 70 or higher, except Virginia Tech at 54, but whose metrics can’t hold up a 13-10 (5-7) record any longer. Sure I think any can still earn an at-large NCAA bids, but we talking about 7-1 at least 6-2 type finishes, and runs in the ACCT.
That leaves Wake Forest and Pittsburgh as ACC teams that realistically play their way into the NCAA Tournament.
What do they need to do?
Wake Forest 16-7 (8-4) Net 33
I’d have Wake Forest in the field now. Either as a 10 seed or Last 4 in. The Deacs issue is a 0-3 Q1 record. They are 6-4 against the Q2. Wake Forest has 5 more potential chances at a Q1 win with games at Duke, Virginia, Duke, at Virginia Tech, and Clemson.
If the Deacs can get 2 of those games, and take care of the rest that’s a 5-3 finish for a 21-10 (13-7) record in the NCAA tournament. I really like their chances at that point. 20-11 (12-8) would have them squarely on the bubble and I think in still, but there is a lot of scoreboard watching to be done.
Pittsburgh 15-8 (6-6) Net 61
Pittsburgh’s recent 3-game winning streak, and winners of 5 of their 6 has put them in the picture. That includes a massive win at Duke. They are 1-5 against the Q1, but they have 3 more chances at a Q1 win, at Virginia, at Wake Forest, and at Clemson. Right now I don’t have them in the field. A 6-2 finish has them 21-10 (12-8), and I believe that’s enough to get them in.
If Pittsburgh loses all three of those games, and we’re looking at 20-11 (11-9). That’s not enough meat to get that NET into the 40s where I think it needs to be.
Both schools need to target the 21-win total to feel secure, especially Pittsburgh.
Circle February 20th when they face each other.
