Clemson is unbeaten. Virginia has a great chance to win the ACC Coastal. Those are not surprises to anyone who follows ACC football. Those realities do not deviate from most pundits’ expectations in late August.
Yet, the path we have taken to get to this point has been unconventional, at least in Virginia’s case.
Clemson has once again endured the proverbial “one bad game” it has every year. It escaped Syracuse in 2018 and escaped North Carolina in 2019. That’s normal for Dabo Swinney.
The less normal case study this season: Virginia’s journey to late October as the team with the inside track to the ACC Coastal title. This is a story which has taken some unanticipated twists and turns, including a set of realities attached to this upcoming Saturday’s game in Louisville against the Cardinals.
If I had told you that Miami would give up 42 points to Virginia Tech at home and then limit Virginia to only nine points six days later, you would have scoffed at the scenario.
If I had told you that Miami would suffer through a disastrous start to the Manny Diaz era but score its one high-end victory of the 2019 season versus Virginia, you might have laughed.
If I had told you that Wake Forest would be the main team battling Virginia for an Orange Bowl berth, you might have found the statement to be within the realm of possibility, but you probably would have expressed a measure of surprise.
Yes, Clemson is where it is supposed to be. Virginia is where it figured to be… but the road has not been straight. It has curved and looped and dipped… and now comes another big plot twist:
Louisville might be the toughest remaining team on UVA’s 2019 schedule.
How many people thought THAT before the season began?
Plenty of people in the ACC felt before the season that other than Clemson, spots 2 through 14 in the conference were ALL up for grabs. To that extent, Louisville having a chance to finish closer to No. 2 than No. 14 is not mind-blowing.
However, if one team was picked to finish last in the ACC Atlantic, Louisville was probably the majority selection, with Boston College being the other prominent possibility.
My, how things have changed. Scott Satterfield was expected to be a very good hire for Louisville; repairing the Cards this quickly, though, has been a revelation. Louisville was never going to physically withstand Clemson’s heft and power for 60 minutes, but it was clear that the Cardinals looked like a well-coached team.
With another year or two of recruiting and player development, it seems the Cardinals could become the best non-Clemson team in the ACC. That is hardly a hyperbolic statement in a league where Syracuse was the second-best team last season.
This year, Virginia and Wake Forest (also Pittsburgh) are fighting to be the second-best team in the ACC.
How unlikely it is that Louisville is the opponent Virginia must beat to nail down number-two status in the conference, which is otherwise known as the silver medal to Clemson’s gold medal.
If everyone in the ACC other than Clemson is playing for second place, Virginia-Louisville has improbably acquired a central place in the ACC spotlight.
This game won’t receive big national buzz, but in the ACC, Virginia can make a loud statement about its worth and stature in 2019. Louisville can make a bold declaration about its upside in 2020 and beyond.
Let’s be clear about Virginia’s stakes entering this game: If the Hoos survive the Cards, they will have only one more ACC road game: at North Carolina. Their final three games (including a non-conference breather against Liberty) are at home. One is against Georgia Tech. The Virginia Tech game closes the season.
Is Louisville the toughest team left on Virginia’s schedule? It is a debatable point… but a thoroughly legitimate point, certainly not a statement which can be laughed out of the room.
Who thought Louisville would acquire such a central place in the story of the 2019 ACC football season? Who thought Louisville and Wake Forest would play a 62-59 game? Who thought Wake Forest would contend for the Orange Bowl while Miami and Florida State entered Week 9 with 3-4 records?
Virginia is still on track to win the ACC Coastal, but the journey to this stage of the ACC season has been anything but conventional. UVA’s opponent on Saturday manifests the utterly surprising nature of this conference season.
We will see if Louisville has more surprises in store for ACC pundits… and the Cavaliers.
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