This is what the ACC always hoped for: to have multiple teams playing meaningful football in November with a chance to make the playoffs. You can always have some kind of incomprehensible chaos happen, which brings several teams back into the discussion, but we’re talking about it realistically.
Realistically, the ACC is down 4 teams, which can reach the playoffs either as the ACC Champion or an at-large team. This also means the ACC has a solid chance to have multiple teams reach the playoffs.
Let’s take a look at Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia, and Louisville.
Georgia Tech (8-0, 5-0) #8 AP, #7 Coaches
Remaining schedule – NC State, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Georgia
As the highest-ranked ACC team, let’s start with Georgia Tech. With Georgia OOC, Georgia Tech gets the SEC mulligan. You can lose a game, and you have a chance to make it up. If Georgia Tech loses any game before top 10 Georgia, but beats Georgia, they are in the playoffs with an 11-1 regular season. Georgia Tech could go 11-0 and lose to 11-1 Georgia and then win the ACC, and they’ll make the playoffs. Any scenario that has Georgia Tech 12-1, they’ll make the playoffs. It’s the 11-2 scenario that could get dicey. If they lose to Georgia and the ACCCG, they won’t be won’t be out, but neither of the losses better be blowouts, and you’ve left things up to the committee and results around the country. Georgia Tech, despite the great record, may not have a ranked win if they go 11-2. Honestly, I don’t like their chances at 11-2 unless there’s a Georgia win in there.
Miami (6-1, 2-1) #10 AP, #9 Coaches
Remaining schedule – SMU, Syracuse, NC State, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh
Miami has the non-conference results, so the loss to Louisville didn’t hurt them much. They own a win over Notre Dame, a good South Florida team, and Florida, and it’s simple for them. Don’t pick up a third loss. Miami at 11-2 and a loss in the ACCCG is in. 10-2 might be out. If I were Miami, I wouldn’t lose another regular-season game. I’ve already seen projections that have Notre Dame ahead of Miami, which is absurd right now since Miami has a better record, and you know beat Notre Dame head-to-head.
Virginia (7-1, 4-0) #16 AP, #15 Coaches
Remaining schedule – California, Wake Forest, Duke, Virginia Tech
Virginia has a good win at Louisville, but also a bad loss to NC State. Virginia is winning, but the recent struggle against Washington State and Virginia will keep the Hoos outside the at-large candidate list. They can’t afford a second loss in the regular season. Should they go 11-1 and lose the ACCCG, I think they should be in, but their position won’t be as strong as a second loss if it comes from the ACCCG, as Georgia Tech (ACCCG loss, Georgia win) or Miami. It sets a very bad precedent if a conference championship game loss knocks a team out of the playoffs, but the Hoos lack a P4 win outside the ACC could be brought up.
Louisville (6-1, 3-1) #16 AP, #17 Coaches
Remaining schedule – Virginia Tech, California, Clemson, SMU, Kentucky
Louisville’s win over Miami will resonate, but they also have the head-to-head loss already to Virginia. They also start the furthest behind the other 3 ACC teams. A loss anywhere before the ACCCG probably knocks them out of at-large contention, but win out and they are in at 11-1 even if they miss the ACCCG. They will have that Miami win plus a victory over the SEC’s Kentucky. Even at 11-2 with an ACCCG loss, they aren’t out of consideration, but they have ground to make up.
What if all 4 teams win out since they don’t play each other?
Georgia Tech 12-0
Miami 11-1
Virginia 11-1
Louisville 11-1
Then Georgia Tech would face Virginia in the ACCCG. Georgia Tech is 100% in. You aren’t leaving out a top 10 team that beat UGA. Miami is in easily. Would the committee allow 4 ACC teams to make the playoffs? They should, but I don’t trust the committee to do the right thing. In that case, I think Louisville would be the odd man out, as I just can’t leave out a Virginia team that loses in the ACCCG, but won the H2H over Louisville at Louisville. I mean, if we aren’t using H2H results as tie breakers then what are we doing here?
November is going to be wild!
