Alongside Virginia's big win over Louisville came a bigger loss: Justin Anderson broke a finger on his shooting hand in last night’s game, will undergo surgery today, and will miss what is projected to be four to six weeks. Four would see him sitting until our rematch with Louisville in the Yum! Center to close the regular season, and six would sideline him until the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
Obviously sooner would be better for any number of reasons (he’s one of our two best players, he’s the emotional hub of the team, it takes time to work a player back in to the rotation and get him reacclimated to the speed of the game), but we also need to make sure — for his own sake — that he heals properly and correctly. This could conceivably see him either missing or significantly limited for the rest of the season, which would turn us from a Final Four contender into a team that would be thrilled to make the Sweet 16.
The first step is denial, and I hit that one pretty hard last night before going to bed — “he just had fingers taped together, it’s probably not that bad.” The second is panic, and I’m allowing myself to do that until tipoff of the NC State game on Wednesday. The last one will be figuring out who’s going to step up and try to fill those shoes, and moving forward. Anderson’s loss impacts the following guys the most.
- London Perrantes. LP isn’t going to see an increase in minutes from this, but he is the best candidate to replace some of Justin’s offense. He’s already started to step up his aggressiveness — taking at least eight shots in three of our last four games — but he’ll need to continue calling his own number when he feels it appropriate while also setting the table for everyone else.
- Evan Nolte. I’m sure that Justin’s minutes will be absorbed by the next four players on this list, but Evan is the junior, is the best three-point shooter, and got the bulk of the minutes last night. It has been two years since anyone has really had confidence in him, but he can help on offense without shooting (he’s a good hockey assist guy), he knows the defensive scheme even if he moves laterally like his shoes are soaked, and he’s 35-91 (38.6%) from three in his career when he plays at least 20 minutes (he’s 32-105 — 30.5% — in all other games). Shooters need time and shots to get into a rhythm, so maybe this will give him a needed jolt.
- Marial Shayok. The leading candidate to take Justin’s role as enforcer on the defensive side. He’s been in a killer offensive slump of late (he hasn’t scored in four games) and has seen his minutes drop (single digits in the last three), but he moves his feet much better than Evan and knows the team aspect of the Pack Line much better than Devon has shown. And he can shoot (40% from three this season) and has shown a willingness to distribute.
- Devon Hall. When I was previewing this season — before we knew that Justin had learned to shoot and was going to take The Leap — I had Devon penciled in as a prospective starter at the three, valuing his potential as a corner three-maker and tertiary set-up man alongside London and Malcolm. I still like him for those reasons — in a minute sample size, he’s hit 40% of his threes and has the third-highest assist rate on the team.
- Isaiah Wilkins. I’m pretty sure that Isaiah is likely to maintain his role as the fourth big/Monster Energy Drink off of the bench, but I know that CTB trusts him more than Hall and that we’re likely to see some Franken-lineups without Justin available. Isaiah has some small forward tendencies — he can shoot some, and has the athleticism to keep up with smaller players — so some moonlighting on the wing isn’t out of the question.
This isn’t going to be easy. Justin’s improved jump shot and the constant threat he offers really keyed our offense as he ran the Harris cuts along the baseline and out to the wings, and you could already see the effect of his absence in the attention paid by Louisville to Evan’s sort of flaccid cuts. Everyone listed will need to step up to hold the line for the next month or so. I am considering cutting off my left hand and mailing it to the McCue Center if they can use it.
