Game Sim previews the ACC Championship Game - Duke vs FSU - SCACCHoops.com

Game Sim previews the ACC Championship Game - Duke vs FSU

by WebMaster

Posted: 12/5/2013 1:19:20 PM


On Saturday night Duke and FSU will matchup in Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game.  Game Sim, which made a move on Monday to its new home NCAAGameSim.com, is ready to preview the matchup.  One of the new features is the ability to see play-by-play when simming the game.  I thought it would be fun to play out the Duke/FSU matchup and break down the action.  Scroll down to the bottom if you're interested in the predicted score.

You can simulate the Duke/FSU matchup here

Duke/FSU Play-by-Play from NCAAGameSim.com

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Nick O'Leary for 20 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 40 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Kelvin Benjamin for 54 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 6 -- Pass by Jameis Winston incomplete
Down: 2 Distance: 10 on Opp 6 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Kelvin Benjamin for 6 yds TOUCHDOWN

Well, that was quick.  It took 4 plays for the Noles to go 80 yards.  Two of the passes go to Benjamin.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Pass by Anthony Boone complete to Jamison Crowder for 3 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 7 on Own 23 -- Run by Josh Snead for 12 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 35 -- Pass by Anthony Boone complete to Johnell Barnes for 16 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 49 -- Run by Josh Snead for 18 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 31 -- Pass by Anthony Boone complete to Braxton Deaver for 3 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 7 on Opp 28 -- Run by Jela Duncan for 6 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 1 on Opp 22 -- Run by Brandon Connette for 2 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 20 -- Run by Brandon Connette for 0 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 10 on Opp 20 -- PENALTY: False Start
Down: 2 Distance: 15 on Opp 25 -- Run by Shaquille Powell for 7 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 8 on Opp 18 -- Pass by Brandon Connette incomplete
Down: 4 Distance: 8 on Opp 18 -- Kick by Ross Martin GOOD

A methodical Duke drive stalls in the red zone in large part due to a false start.  Duke does pickup 3 on the drive.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Rashad Greene for 1 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 9 on Own 21 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Rashad Greene for 48 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 31 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Kenny Shaw for 31 yds TOUCHDOWN

You get the feeling its going to be a tough day for the Duke defense.  Three more plays, another TD for FSU.  Noles up 14-3.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Pass by Anthony Boone complete to Issac Blakeney for -2 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 12 on Own 18 -- Pass by Anthony Boone complete to Jamison Crowder for 3 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 9 on Own 21 -- Pass by Anthony Boone complete to Josh Snead for 15 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 36 -- Pass by Anthony Boone complete to Jamison Crowder for 16 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 48 -- Pass by Brandon Connette incomplete
Down: 2 Distance: 10 on Opp 48 -- PENALTY: False Start
Down: 2 Distance: 15 on Own 47 -- Pass by Anthony Boone incomplete
Down: 3 Distance: 15 on Own 47 -- Run by Shaquille Powell for 1 yds
Down: 4 Distance: 14 on Own 48 -- 43 yard punt by Will Monday

Nice 3rd down pickup on a pass from Boone to Snead gets Duke across midfield.  Once again a false start for the Duke offensive line forces the Blue Devils to punt.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 9 -- PENALTY: False Start
Down: 1 Distance: 15 on Own 4 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Kelvin Benjamin for 20 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 24 -- Pass by Jameis Winston incomplete
Down: 2 Distance: 10 on Own 24 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 1 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 9 on Own 25 -- PENALTY: False Start
Down: 3 Distance: 14 on Own 20 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 11 yds
Down: 4 Distance: 3 on Own 31 -- 41 yard punt by Cason Beatty

The Duke defense manages to get a stop, although a couple FSU penalties give them some help.  FSU still leads 14-3.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 28 -- Run by Anthony Boone for 3 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 7 on Own 31 -- Pass by Team complete to Jamison Crowder for 6 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 1 on Own 37 -- Run by Jela Duncan for 13 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on 50 -- Pass by Anthony Boone complete to Jamison Crowder for 26 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 24 -- Run by Brandon Connette for 12 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 12 -- Run by Jela Duncan for 4 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 6 on Opp 8 -- Pass by Anthony Boone complete to Brandon Braxton for 8 yds TOUCHDOWN

The Duke running game wakes up on this drive, but its a Boone to Braxton TD that closes out the drive and Duke now trails 14-10.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 6 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 4 on Own 26 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Kelvin Benjamin for 56 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 18 -- Run by Jameis Winston for 2 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 8 on Opp 16 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Rashad Greene for 16 yds TOUCHDOWN

Duke can't stop Kelvin Benjamin who is having a monster game.  Winston to Greene makes it 21-10 FSU.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Pass by Anthony Boone incomplete
Down: 2 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Run by Josh Snead for -2 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 12 on Own 18 -- Run by Jela Duncan for -2 yds
Down: 4 Distance: 14 on Own 16 -- 43 yard punt by Will Monday

FSU defense gets a three and out.  You wonder if this is going to get away from Duke at this point.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 41 -- PENALTY: False Start
Down: 1 Distance: 15 on Own 36 -- PENALTY: False Start
Down: 1 Distance: 20 on Own 31 -- Pass by Jameis Winston incomplete
Down: 2 Distance: 20 on Own 31 -- Run by Ryan Green for -2 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 22 on Own 29 -- Run by Karlos Williams for 8 yds
Down: 4 Distance: 14 on Own 37 -- 41 yard punt by Cason Beatty

It seems the only thing that can stop FSU is penalties.  Noles false start twice in a row and are forced to punt.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 22 -- Pass by Anthony Boone incomplete
Down: 2 Distance: 10 on Own 22 -- Pass by Anthony Boone complete to Nick Sink for 8 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 2 on Own 30 -- Pass by Anthony Boone incomplete
Down: 4 Distance: 2 on Own 30 -- 43 yard punt by Will Monday

The defenses are waking up, Duke goes 3 and out, another Will Monday punt.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 27 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 7 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 3 on Own 34 -- Pass by Jameis Winston INTERCEPTED

The Duke defense has been great at creating takeaways and they do so here as they pickoff a Jameis Winston pass and get great field position.

Down: 2 Distance: 10 on Opp 34 -- Run by Jela Duncan for 1 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 9 on Opp 33 -- Run by Jamison Crowder for 9 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 24 -- Run by Jela Duncan for 4 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 6 on Opp 20 -- Run by Jela Duncan for 19 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 1 -- Run by Anthony Boone for 1 yds TOUCHDOWN

Five straight runs from Duke and they won't go away.   Duke trails FSU 21-17.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Kenny Shaw for 4 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 6 on Own 24 -- Pass by Jameis Winston incomplete
Down: 3 Distance: 6 on Own 24 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Nick O'Leary for 22 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 46 -- Run by Karlos Williams for 9 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 1 on Opp 45 -- PENALTY: False Start
Down: 2 Distance: 6 on on 50 -- Run by Jameis Winston for 10 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 40 -- Pass by Jameis Winston incomplete
Down: 2 Distance: 10 on Opp 40 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 7 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 3 on Opp 33 -- Run by Karlos Williams for 13 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 20 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Nick O'Leary for 20 yds TOUCHDOWN

The FSU running attack shows up on this drive and the Seminoles answer once again. FSU leads 28-17.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Run by Juwan Thompson for 0 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Pass by Brandon Connette incomplete
Down: 3 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Run by Josh Snead for 6 yds
Down: 4 Distance: 4 on Own 26 -- 43 yard punt by Will Monday

Duke goes 3 and out as halftime approaches.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 31 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 12 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 43 -- Run by Ryan Green for 1 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 9 on Own 44 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 6 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 3 on on 50 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for -2 yds
Down: 4 Distance: 5 on Own 48 -- 41 yard punt by Cason Beatty

FSU content to run out the clock.  FSU leads Duke 28-17 at halftime.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 11 -- Pass by Anthony Boone incomplete
Down: 2 Distance: 10 on Own 11 -- PENALTY: False Start
Down: 2 Distance: 15 on Own 6 -- Run by Jamison Crowder for 11 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 4 on Own 17 -- Pass by Anthony Boone incomplete
Down: 4 Distance: 4 on Own 17 -- 43 yard punt by Will Monday

Another 3 and out for the Duke offense, not exactly the way you want to start the second half.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 40 -- Run by Chad Abram for 3 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 7 on Own 43 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Kelvin Benjamin for -2 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 9 on Own 41 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 6 yds
Down: 4 Distance: 3 on Own 47 -- 41 yard punt by Cason Beatty

FSU answers with a 3 and out of their own.  Has this turned into a defensive battle?

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 12 -- Run by Brandon Connette for 8 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 2 on Own 20 -- Run by Brandon Connette for 5 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 25 -- Run by Anthony Boone for 2 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 8 on Own 27 -- Run by Jela Duncan for -2 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 10 on Own 25 -- Run by Juwan Thompson for 3 yds
Down: 4 Distance: 7 on Own 28 -- 43 yard punt by Will Monday

Duke turns to their running attack and picks up one first down before the drive stalls.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 29 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 20 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 49 -- Run by Karlos Williams for 4 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 6 on Opp 47 -- PENALTY: Offensive Holding
Down: 2 Distance: 16 on Own 43 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 21 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 36 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for -1 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 11 on Opp 37 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Chad Abram for 28 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 9 -- Run by Jameis Winston for 9 yds TOUCHDOWN

FSU turns to their running attack as well and Devonta Freeman picks up 40 yard rushing on two big runs before Winston runs it in from 9 yards out. FSU leads 35-17.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Run by Brandon Connette for 11 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 31 -- Pass by Anthony Boone complete to Brandon Braxton for 14 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 45 -- Pass by Brandon Connette complete to Braxton Deaver for 12 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 43 -- Run by Jela Duncan for 6 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 4 on Opp 37 -- Run by Anthony Boone for 8 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 29 -- Pass by Brandon Connette incomplete
Down: 2 Distance: 10 on Opp 29 -- Run by Jela Duncan for 8 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 2 on Opp 21 -- Run by Juwan Thompson for -1 yds
Down: 4 Distance: 3 on Opp 22 -- Kick by Ross Martin GOOD

Duke gives us a dose of the Boone/Connette one-two punch but can't convert a 3rd and short and are forced to settle for a Ross Martin field goal.  FSU leads 35-20.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 7 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 3 on Own 27 -- Pass by Jameis Winston INTERCEPTED

For the second time Duke picks off a Jameis Winston pass.  Good field position for Duke.

Down: 2 Distance: 10 on Opp 27 -- Pass by Anthony Boone incomplete
Down: 3 Distance: 10 on Opp 27 -- PENALTY: False Start
Down: 3 Distance: 15 on Opp 32 -- Run by Juwan Thompson for 9 yds
Down: 4 Distance: 6 on Opp 23 -- Kick by Ross Martin GOOD

Duke shoots itself in the foot again with a false start.  Another Ross Martin field goal makes it 35-23.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Run by Karlos Williams for 7 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 3 on Own 27 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Rashad Greene for 35 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 38 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Rashad Greene for 6 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 4 on Opp 32 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for -2 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 6 on Opp 34 -- PENALTY: False Start
Down: 3 Distance: 11 on Opp 39 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Kenny Shaw for 12 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 27 -- Run by Karlos Williams for 8 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 2 on Opp 19 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 9 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 10 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Rashad Greene for 10 yds TOUCHDOWN

FSU answers with a balanced drive with a pass from Winston to Greene for his second TD of the day. FSU leads 42-23.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Run by Brandon Connette for 7 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 3 on Own 27 -- PENALTY: Offensive Holding
Down: 2 Distance: 13 on Own 17 -- Pass by Anthony Boone incomplete
Down: 3 Distance: 13 on Own 17 -- Run by Juwan Thompson for -1 yds
Down: 4 Distance: 14 on Own 16 -- 43 yard punt by Will Monday

Duke goes three and out and it appears like the Blue Devils are running out of time.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 41 -- PENALTY: Offensive Holding
Down: 1 Distance: 20 on Own 31 -- Pass by Jameis Winston incomplete
Down: 2 Distance: 20 on Own 31 -- Run by Ryan Green for -2 yds
Down: 3 Distance: 22 on Own 29 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 14 yds
Down: 4 Distance: 8 on Own 43 -- 41 yard punt by Cason Beatty

FSU starts to work the clock but a holding call leads to a three and out for the Noles.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 16 -- Pass by Anthony Boone complete to Max McCaffrey for 9 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 1 on Own 25 -- PENALTY: False Start
Down: 2 Distance: 6 on Own 20 -- Pass by Anthony Boone complete to Brandon Braxton for 19 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 39 -- Pass by Brandon Connette complete to Braxton Deaver for 8 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 2 on Own 47 -- Pass by Brandon Connette incomplete
Down: 3 Distance: 2 on Own 47 -- Run by Jamison Crowder for 12 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 41 -- Pass by Anthony Boone complete to Max McCaffrey for 26 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 15 -- Pass by Brandon Connette complete to Brandon Braxton for 15 yds TOUCHDOWN

Duke isn't done just yet, the Blue Devils march down the field and Connette connects with Brandon Braxton on a playaction pass.  Duke trails 42-30.

Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 20 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Kenny Shaw for 6 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 4 on Own 26 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 10 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 36 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 1 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 9 on Own 37 -- Run by Devonta Freeman for 12 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Own 49 -- Run by Jameis Winston for 11 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 40 -- Run by Freddie Stevenson for 7 yds
Down: 2 Distance: 3 on Opp 33 -- Run by James Wilder Jr. for 10 yds
Down: 1 Distance: 10 on Opp 23 -- Pass by Jameis Winston complete to Chad Abram for 23 yds TOUCHDOWN

FSU answers and caps the victory with a TD pass.  FSU wins the ACC Championship 49-30.

Simulation Stats

  • This game has been simulated 351 times.
  • FSU (2014) has won 300 times (85.5%), won by > 20 pts 151 times (43.0%)
  • Duke (2014) has won 51 times (14.5%), won by > 20 pts 2 times (0.6%)
  • The average score is FSU (2014): 34 - Duke (2014): 17, decided by < 5 pts 53 times (15.1%)
  • The game has gone into overtime 11 times (3.1%)

Prediction

FSU wins 34-17


Categories: Duke

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