Game Preview: Louisville hosts Duke looking to continue Duke's struggles - SCACCHoops.com

Game Preview: Louisville hosts Duke looking to continue Duke's struggles

by DukeBlogger.com

Posted: 1/14/2017 8:13:56 AM


Duke and Louisville are both just 2-2 in the ACC conference, and head into their showdown looking to avoid a further setback.

The Duke Blue Devils have lost two of their last four games heading into a road date with the Louisville Cardinals at the KFC Yum! Center on Saturday afternoon. Duke started the season 12-1 but has suffered recent setbacks at the hands of Virginia Tech and Florida State. The Cardinals have won two in a row at the expense Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh.

The Blue Devils failed their first big test without head coach Mike Krzyzewski, who is likely out for the rest of January because of back surgery. They fell 88-72 to Florida State on Tuesday after shooting 41.1 percent from the floor, including a mere 7-for-24 (29.2 percent) from three-point range.

“They definitely got frustrated in the second half, because they don’t have as many guys they can sub as we do,” FSU guard Dwayne Bacon said of the Blue Devils.

Forward Amile Jefferson missed the game with a bone bruise in his foot, so Duke was thinner than normal. It went only seven deep, with Chase Jeter and Frank Jackson coming off the bench. Eighth man Marques Bolden logged only four minutes. Sophomore Luke Kennard and freshman Jayson Tatum led the way with 23 and 21 points, respectively, but the Devils needed additional contributions to make up for Jefferson’s absence. They did not get enough. Grayson Allen finished with just nine points, while highly touted freshman Harry Giles scored only five points to go along with two rebounds in 10 minutes. Allen is averaging a mediocre 12 points and 7.7 assists in three games since his return from a one-game suspension.

After losing their first two ACC games to Virginia and Notre Dame, Louisville has reeled off back-to-back wins over Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. That said, the latter two teams are not top tier ACC teams The Cardinals, though, gave up 80 points in the recent defeat of the Panthers. That appears to be an aberration to the rule, because they feature the nation’s No. 1 defensive in terms of efficiency (per KenPom.com). Pitt’s 80 points marked a season-high against Louisville. Still, the Cards one of the country’s leaders in terms of forcing opponents to turn the ball over (21.4 percent of defensive possessions result in TOs).

On the other end of the court, Louisville relies on guards Quentin Snider and Donovan Mitchell to carry an offense that is averaging only 68.3 points per game (13th in the ACC). Snider tied a season-high with 22 points to lead the Cardinals past Pittsburgh, while Mitchell chipped in 15 points and eight rebounds. Mitchell is averaging 20 PPG in the last four games, including a season-high 25 during a 77-62 win over Indiana.

Keys to the Game:

  • Duke
    • Find a way past the press. Allen and Tatum will be tasked with breaking that Louisville press, and will be crucial in getting the Duke offense going.
    • Get something from Harry Giles. The freshman Blue Devils big man was a flop against Florida State and has yet to truly convince this season. They will need him to step up and provide some meaningful minutes, especially if Jefferson still is still out.
  • Louisville Cardinals
    • Start strong. The Blue Devils are low on confidence as it is, and might not have much fight left in them if they get down early. The Cards need to capitalize and hit them hard right from the tip.
    • Outwork Duke inside. There are some question marks regarding the Duke big men at the moment, and the Cards must make that potential advantage count.

Endgame

As noted above, it appears that Jefferson will not be ready for this game, however there has been no official release from Duke at the time of this writing. Even if he does make it into the game, he will be far from 100 percent so soon after sustaining a bone bruise. If Jefferson were to return against Louisville, even for limited minutes, it would be a big boost to a Duke defense that allowed Florida State to shoot 53 percent from the field. Duke’s only wins in its last four outings have come against lowly Georgia Tech and Boston College. Stiffer competition has been able to get the best of the Devils of late.

Despite its recent isolation tendencies, Duke’s offense has not been a major issue. However, its defense is so-so. Quentin Snider always tends to have his best performances in pressure-packed Louisville home games – look no further than his 22-point outing against Kentucky this season for evidence. A good Snider or Donovan Mitchell game along with a typical Louisville defensive performance could be enough to win it for the Cards.

This said, I am going to take an optimistic approach and look for the Devils to bounce back on the road with a 79-77 win.

 

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