The Duke Blue Devils hope for a nice bounce back win after losing to Kentucky. The Duke Blue Devils are averaging 89.3 points on 47.2 percent shooting and allowing 74.3 points on 45 percent shooting. Grayson Allen is averaging 20 points and three assists while Amile Jefferson is averaging 15.3 points and 12.7 rebounds. Matt Jones is dishing two assists and Marshall Plumlee is grabbing nine rebounds. The Duke Blue Devils are shooting 37.5 percent from deep and enters this game with four double-digit scorers. However, Duke has allowed 74 or more points in all three games this season and is allowing 44.2 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Duke needs to be more consistent on the defensive end.
VCU will look quite different for the obvious reasons after losing its head coach and two standout players, Treveon Graham and Briante Weber. The black and gold will need to find ways to win without the scoring production of Graham this season as there will most likely be with a noticeable change in approach, namely in VCU’s use of their bigs. Look for VCU to use bigger lineups under Wade than under Smart and expect more diversity in their looks on the floor as well. While VCU “havoc” will hope to make an appearance against the Blue Devils, VCU will throw some matchup zone looks at Duke that would not have really been considered by the previous staff. Offensively, it is expected more emphasis on frontcourt play than in years past and expect Alie-Cox, Tillman, and Gilmore to be the biggest beneficiaries. VCU’s guards will still likely do the majority of the scoring but the trio will more than likely get a lot more looks than frontcourts of years past might have. That frontcourt will be needed early against a Duke team with a ton of talent standing 6’9 or taller.
The VCU Rams look for a 3-0 start after wins over Prairie View A&M and Radford. The VCU Rams are averaging 83.5 points on 45 percent shooting and allowing 62 points on 38.9 percent shooting. Senior guard Melvin Johnson is averaging 18.5 points and two assists while senior guard Korey Billbury is averaging 11 points and 6.5 rebounds. Junior guard JeQuan Lewis is the third double-digit scorer and junior forward Mo Alie-Cox is grabbing 8.5 rebounds. The VCU Rams are shooting 42.6 percent from downtown and have eight players averaging at least six points. Defensively, VCU still plays that pressure defense that has produced 30 steals and 11 blocks in the first two games. Of course, this will be the game that lets the VCU Rams know exactly where they are without Shaka Smart.
[An interesting side note is on the Duke bench, Ram fans will recognize assistant coach, Jeff Capel. The former Duke guard was named VCU head coach after one year as an assistant and helped the Rams in their return to prominence starting with a 2004 NCAA tournament run and a one-point NCAA tourney loss to the Chris Paul led Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Capel left the Rams after three seasons to take the same position at Oklahoma where he coached five years before being let go.]
Potential Matchups
PG – Matt Jones, Grayson Allen, or Derryck Thornton v JeQuan Lewis
Lewis will have the experience advantage against Thornton. The two are actually quite similar in that both love to attack on both sides of the ball (not to mention the obvious size comparisons). The question remains for Duke will they continue the rotation at this spot with Jones & Allen. The answer in the short-term is ‘yes’.
SG – Grayson Allen v Melvin Johnson
It is well-known that Allen can be an explosive guard, but he was held at bay in the Kentucky game. It should be a shootout between him and VCU’s Melvin Johnson. Johnson will be just a quick train ride from his home in the Bronx so expect him to potentially put on a show under the bright lights of MSG against the defending champions. Of course, we cannot forget Matt Jones at this spot. He could be an even better matchup against Johnson
SF – Brandon Ingram v Jordan Burgess
Jordan Burgess has done much of his damage at VCU on the defensive end and will look to lock down on Duke’s highest rated incoming recruit, Ingram. Ingram can hit shots all over the floor at a high percentage including a 42% clip from range his senior high school season. Burgess is a much more physical player than Ingram is and will have a serious strength advantage over the blue chipper. This should be a fun matchup and a great test for Burgess.
PF – Amile Jefferson v Justin Tillman
If Chase Jeter would play this spot, he looks and plays a lot like VCU’s Michael Gilmore. However, Jefferson will see the majority of minutes here. At 6’9 & 225 lbs, Amile has the length to bother Tillman. It will be nice to see Jeter and Gilmore go at it, however the Tillman and Jefferson matchup in the low post should be fun to watch.
C – Marshall Plumlee v Mo Alie-Cox
Plumlee will most likely start at the 5 spot again. His newfound game will bring the size needed to matchup with the power Alie-Cox.
Plumlee has leveraged his experiences in the Duke program and has become a contributor now in his final season. His 7 foot frame and strength and even some aspects of his offensive game have become crucial in this early part of the season.
[An interesting side note is another VCU connection. Sean Obi, who plays sparingly at this spot left Rice before former VCU assistant turned Rice head coach, Mike Rhoades, ever had a chance to coach him. Recruited to the Owls by Ben Braun, Obi left Rice to join the Blue Devils after a stellar freshman season in Houston. He had tremendous stats while at Rice but for whatever reason is simply not seeing much PT at Duke thus far.]
Duke is the more talented team, but VCU has a ton of experience and that pressure defense is sure to give the Blue Devils young players issues. I think this is going to be a hard played game on both sides with Duke pulling away in the end with a 83-79 victory.
