Duke-UNC: Hype Over Win Streaks Overblown - SCACCHoops.com

Duke-UNC: Hype Over Win Streaks Overblown

by Duke Sports Blog

Posted: 11/27/2013 8:19:22 PM


When Duke takes on rival North Carolina on Saturday it will feature a game between two teams who seem pretty similar.

There will be a lot at stake for the Blue Devils who can clinch the ACC Coastal Division title and win 10 games for the first time in school history. Duke enters the game with a seven game winning streak and a national ranking for the first time in 19 years. At 9-2 this is arguably the best season in the Blue Devils modern history.

By contrast North Carolina started the season at 1-5 but have bounced back with five straight wins of their own. They have a chance to improve their bowl status and finish the season at 7-5, a remarkable achievement after that terrible start.

While Duke has gotten a lot of media love, the Tar Heels are getting just as much if not more thanks to their winning streak.

The facts though are that there really is very little difference between what North Carolina has done in their last five games and what Duke has done, despite all the hype. North Carolina’s opponents combined record in their five game streak is a modest 26-30 with the Tar Heels best win coming against Boston College.

Duke’s opponents record in their last five games of their seven game winning streak is similar at 24-31, however, they have wins over Virginia Tech (at the time ranked No. 16) and Miami (ranked No. 24 at the time). Both of those teams the Tar Heels lost to. North Carolina has beaten Pitt, who Duke lost to in the fourth game of the year without starting quarterback Anthony Boone. You could argue the numbers and strength of schedule from either side but really is their that much difference?

The Tar Heels have been dubbed an offensive juggernaut with quarterback Marquise Williams playing well and tightend Eric Ebron getting a lot of press as an NFL-caliber talent. North Carolina is 50th in the nation in points per game and 24th in passing, impressive numbers, however, much of those numbers are a bit inflated by the last five games.

Just a case in point, North Carolina scored 80 points in their last game against an Old Dominion team whose best win this year maybe against Idaho. Hardly something to brag about.

Duke has won games with its defense, especially its fourth quarter defense. The Blue Devils are 32nd in the nation in points allowed by their defense at 22.8 points allowed per game. That includes a defense that has not allowed but 34 fourth quarter points that includes just four touchdowns all season.

This could be a clash of offense versus defense but the Blue Devils offense who is scoring 34 points per game good for 35th in the country can win games too. The Blue Devils have had some offensive slumps but despite some poor play on that side of the ball, see Virginia Tech and NC State, Duke still found a way to win those games.

When it all comes down to it this will be a classic, old-school rivalry game with lots on the line. Both teams can improve their standings for the end of the year. Both teams have a chance to win a game against a fiercely hated rival and take home bragging rights and a certain bell.

In games like this wins and loses do not matter. Even during the string of years between 1990 and last year when Duke had only won a single game in the rivalry, there were still some close games. Duke won last year when they were a 10-point underdog at home. This season they will be a 5.5 underdog on the road. Better odds, and the Blue Devils have a better team.

One thing that will not matter for either team though,  is what they’ve done in the last five games, or in Duke’s case, seven. This is a one game season and whether these teams are 6-5, 9-2 or 0-11, this is and should be the only game that matters.

 

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