Portland just made the biggest splash of the summer. The Trail Blazers acquired Ja Morant from Memphis in a straight-up swap that sent Jerami Grant and Kris Murray to the Grizzlies no draft picks attached, per ESPN.
It’s a franchise bet on a two-time All-Star still in his prime and a gamble on a backcourt that already includes Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday, and Scoot Henderson. Morant joins a Portland team fresh off its first playoff appearance since 2021, headlined by breakout star Deni Avdija.
The question for Blazers fans:
Does Ja Morant actually move Portland forward in the West?
We tested it with the MyGameSim API and our NBA Game Simulator - 100 full games against the 2026 Oklahoma City Thunder on a neutral floor, stock Blazers vs. the Morant What If roster.
The Trade
Per Hoops Rumors and NBC Sports, the deal breaks down as follows:
Trail Blazers receive
- Ja Morant
Grizzlies receive
- Jerami Grant
- Kris Murray
Memphis sheds Morant’s two remaining years (roughly $87 million) and resets around a young core after trading away its former cornerstones. Portland absorbs the star guard and hard-caps itself at the first tax apron, per cap analysis from Hoops Rumors.
Grant averaged 18.6 points on 39% from three before a late-season calf injury. Murray has been a rotation depth piece since Portland drafted him 23rd overall in 2023. Morant, 26, is coming off a limited 2025–26 (19.5 PPG, 8.1 APG in 20 games) but still profiles as one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers when healthy.
The Setup
- Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Portland Trail Blazers (2026 rosters)
- Simulations: 100 per scenario
- Home-court advantage: Off (neutral floor)
- Control: Stock 2026 Blazers roster (away)
- Test: Blazers with Ja Morant; Grant and Murray removed
We chose the Thunder as the opponent, the defending Western Conference benchmark, to stress-test whether Morant moves Portland closer to true contender status or just adds another name to an already crowded backcourt.
Head-to-Head: Stock Blazers vs. Morant Blazers (100 sims each)
Stock 2026 Blazers
Blazers + Ja Morant (What If)
What the numbers say: The stock Blazers are heavy underdogs against OKC, they win just 24% of simulations and lose by nearly 12 points on average. That’s the reality of facing the West’s best.
Adding Morant doesn’t turn Portland into a favorite. But it does move the needle: win rate climbs to 37%, the average margin tightens from −11.8 to −8.5, and the Thunder’s scoring drops from 117.5 to 115.4 PPG. Portland still loses this matchup more often than not, but it’s a meaningfully more competitive game.
Ja Morant in a Blazers Uniform: Sim Box Score Profile
Across all 100 What If simulations, Ja Morant averaged the following for Portland. He appeared in all 100 box scores and zero times on the baseline roster.
Ja Morant — 100-game sim average (Trail Blazers)
Morant slots in as Portland’s second-leading scorer behind Deni Avdija (16.6 PPG in the What If run, up from 15.0 baseline). Shaedon Sharpe (13.3 PPG) and Jrue Holiday (11.5 PPG) round out a deep scoring attack.
What Portland gave up
On the stock roster, the outgoing pieces combined for:
- Jerami Grant: 11.8 PPG, 2.9 RPG (100 games)
- Kris Murray: 3.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG (100 games)
That’s 15.6 combined PPG from forwards Portland moved on from. Morant’s 14.3 PPG nearly matches Grant’s scoring alone, with far more playmaking (4.5 APG) layered on top. The sim redistributes usage toward Avdija and Morant without cannibalizing Sharpe or Holiday.
Does Morant Move Portland Forward in the West?
Yes — incrementally, not dramatically.
Against the Thunder specifically, the Morant Blazers:
- Win 13 more games per 100 (24% → 37%)
- Close the margin by 3.3 points (−11.8 → −8.5)
- Hold OKC to 2.1 fewer points per game
Portland doesn’t leap into the West’s elite tier in this sim. They’re still underdogs against Oklahoma City. But they go from a team that loses this matchup three out of four times to one that wins more than a third of the time — a real step forward against the conference’s measuring stick.
The backcourt fit question remains open. Lillard, Holiday, Henderson, and Morant on one roster is unconventional, and the sim can’t model minutes distribution or locker-room chemistry. What it can model is production: Morant gives Portland a second elite creator alongside Avdija, and the team plays tighter games against top competition.
Caveats worth keeping in mind:
- This is one opponent (OKC). Softer West matchups might show a larger bump.
- The sim uses projected 2026 stats — Morant’s health and availability aren’t guaranteed.
- Grant’s defense and Murray’s youth don’t fully show up in a scoring-focused box score.
But if you’re asking “does Ja Morant make the Blazers more competitive against the West’s best?” The sim’s answer is yes, with the caveat that Portland still has work to do before it’s flipping these matchups consistently.
