Freshman Maverick Rowan made a season-high six 3-pointers and scored 24 points. Rowan credited Barber for setting screens to get him open, and Barber returned the compliments. Rowan went 5 of 16 from beyond the arc in the two losses to the Blue Devils.
Duke is second in the ACC in 3-point shooting at 38.9 percent. The Blue Devils shot 45.3 percent on 3-pointers against the Wolfpack with 50 free-throw attempts.
These teams ranked third and fourth in the ACC regular season in average foul shot attempts with 24.1 for Duke and 24.0 for N.C. State.
The Blue Devils also feature ACC freshman of the year Brandon Ingram, who is second on the team in scoring with 16.7 points per game and rebounding at 6.8. He has had to step up with senior forward Amile Jefferson out for the season with a foot injury.
Duke lost 76-72 at home to then-No. 8 North Carolina on Saturday to cap a three-game stretch in which it shot 37.1 percent. The Blue Devils were outrebounded 64-29.
The winner will face Notre Dame in Thursday’s quarterfinals.
Offensive Four Factors
Duke eFG% TO% OR% FT Rate
2015-16 Overall (National Rank) 53.8 (33) 14.6 (9) 33.7 (50) 40.6 (78)
2015-16 ACC Only (Conference Rank) 53.5 (2) 15.4 (2) 29.4 (11) 37.7 (3)
State eFG% TO% OR% FT Rate
2015-16 Overall (National Rank) 48.0 (251) 16.3 (58) 36.5 (22) 39.6 (97)
2015-16 ACC Only (Conference Rank) 48.6 (11) 17.0 (8) 35.8 (3) 36.3 (4)
When comparing offensive factors for these two teams, it is readily apparent that Duke has a decided edge in each with the exception of offensive rebounding. Nationally, Duke ranks 50th at 33.7 & State ranks 22nd at 36.5. When looking only at conference play, Duke ranks 11th at 29.4 & State ranks 3rd at 35.8, a significant difference.
Game Notables
- Duke announced over the weekend that F Amile Jefferson (foot), who has been out since early December, would miss the rest of the season
- The Wolfpack are 21-11 in March under coach Mark Gottfried over the last five years, including five NCAA Tournament wins and eight in the ACC tournament
- Kennard leads the ACC in free-throw shooting percentage (89.4) – third-best in team history by a freshman
Keys to Watch For
- Stealing minutes and creative substituting
Being able to steal minutes to rest for Marshall Plumlee, Grayson Allen & Brandon Ingram will be important. With a bench this short its crucial to manage minutes. - Rebounding
After getting destroyed by UNC on the boards if Duke can contain and box out or at least attempt to box out, it could lead to second chance points and take some stress off of Duke mentally and physically. Duke will have to work much harder and will have a much more difficult time maintaining a lead or making a comeback if they do not rebound at least at a decent clip. - Not letting the Cat purrrrr
Containing Cat Barber is crucial, making him into a pass first point guard could play into Duke’s hands. Keeping the Pack out of transition is also important. Duke has not been at its best in transition defense but when they can set up they are much more effective. - Points in the Paint
Everybody knows Duke is looking to shoot the ball from beyond the arc, its one of the few stats that Duke generally wins and it is a great equalizer for a team that is generally not a strong rebounding team. Tires legs may fall in love with the jumpshot but in order for Duke to be at its most effective they need to drive the ball and get to the free throw line.
Prediction
I decided to do something a bit quirky in predicting the outcome of this game by looking at statistical odds maker trends.
The over is 10-3 in the Wolfpack’s last 13 overall, 19-7-1 in their last 27 against winning opponents, 7-2 in their last nine against opponents with winning percentages over .600, and 4-1 in their last five at neutral sites. It is also 19-7-1 in the last 27 head-to-head meetings. Neither team had any trouble scoring in the previous head-to-head contests. Allen certainly had no problem torching the Wolfpack in a pair of Duke victories. Barber and Rowan are in fine form for N.C. State, but it remains to be seen if the underdogs can contain the Blue Devil offense. This one should go over the total.
What this comes down to is a Duke win. As for the final score, it will be 85-75.
