ACC Football Projection: Daniel Jones and Deondre Francois - SCACCHoops.com

ACC Football Projection: Daniel Jones and Deondre Francois

by WebMaster

Posted: 7/17/2017 10:14:35 AM


Time for some fun with math.  Both FSU's Deondre Francois and Duke's Daniel Jones are coming off successful freshman campaigns.  Let's project how they may perform as sophomores.

First, here are there numbers for the 2016-17 season:

Name Games Comp Att Yds TD Int
Deondre Francois 13 235 400 3350 20 7
Daniel Jones 12 270 430 2836 16 9

Let's take a look at a few ACC comps with comparable freshman campaigns from the past few years...

Name Season Games Comp Att Yds TD Int
Jameis Winston 2013 14 257 384 4062 40 10
Brad Kaaya 2014 13 221 378 3198 26 12
Lamar Jackson 2015 11 135 247 1840 12 8

How did these guys perform in their sophomore season?

Name Season Games Comp Att Yds TD Int
Jameis Winston 2014 13 305 467 3907 25 18
Brad Kaaya 2015 12 238 389 3238 16 5
Lamar Jackson 2016 13 230 409 3543 30 9

Let's compare their Sophomore numbers to their Freshman numbers in all categories and see the per game percentage change.

Name Comp Att Yds TD Int
Jameis Winston 21.8% 23.6% 3.5% -48.6% 48.4%
Brad Kaaya 14.3% 10.3% 8.8% -50% -121.5%
Lamar Jackson 30.6% 38.6% 38.6% 52.7% -5%

Trends

  • In each case completions and attempts go up at without a large change in completion percentage.
  • Yardage didn't go up significantly except for Lamar Jackson.  Likely this was due to a focus from defense on forcing him to throw the ball.  Throw in Louisville's dynamic offense and it explains the large jump in passing yards.
  • TDs went down significantly for both Kaaya and Winston.  See point 2 for Jackson.  A decline in TD passes may well have to do with defenses focusing more on a sophomore QB.  The expectation would be that INTs would also go down with a year of experience and this is true for Kaaya and Jackson, but not for Winston.

Projections

Name Comp Att Yds TD Int
Deondre Francois 282 480 3517.5 24 6.3
Daniel Jones 324 516 2977.8 19.2 8.1
  • For completions and attempts, I gave both Francois and Jones a 20% increase.
  • For yardage, I gave both a 5% increase which was in line with the case study above.
  • I wasn't sure I could draw a reliable solution for TDs and INTs so I went with a 20% increase in TDs (same as attempts), and a -10% decrease in INTs.


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