Could North Carolina miss the NCAA Tournament again? The Tar Heels have one win over a top 50 opponent and only four total top 100 wins. North Carolina is in serious jeopardy over missing the NCAA Tournament for the second time in the last four years. Breaking down North Carolina this year, their biggest problem isn’t a lack of talent. While North Carolina isn’t trotting out a team full of first round picks like last year, they do have five McDonald’s All Americans on the roster.
Coach Roy Williams has been criticized in the past for needing a big time point guard to be successful as well as back to the basket big men in order to be successful. Well those claims are looking more and more valid as each games passes this season. Another issue is the rotation; 11 players get minutes on a regular basis and no one averages 30 minutes per game. As far as statistical weaknesses go, the Tar Heels are once again near the bottom nationally in defending the three point shot. Otherwise defensively they haven’t been awful, but mainly average. Offensively North Carolina struggles in an area which they’ve traditionally done very well at, getting to the free throw line. All in all this is a North Carolina team with a ton of puzzle pieces and Roy Williams has been unable to put them together so far. All of that can change however with a win at number 2 ranked Duke.
Starters
PG #5 Marcus Paige Fr.
In my opinion here is the number one hole on the Tar Heel roster. Paige is solid for freshmen, but not someone you want to rely on for the majority of the minutes at the point. Paige is very frail, listed at only 155 pounds and teams are running him into ball screens left and right. Paige came out of high school with the reputation as being a good long range shooter, so far at UNC Paige is shooting 29% from three. A lot of his struggles may have to do with his lack of strength and that will only get worse as the seasons goes on. When guarding Paige you want to bait him into take contested threes, since he is only shooting 29% and this way he isn’t getting his teammates involved. I’d love to see Duke use Quinn Cook in a lot of ball screens and off ball screens taking advantage of Paige’s lack of strength on the defensive end of the floor.
SG #1 Dexter Strickland Sr.
I understand playing Paige all of those minutes at point guard, there really isn’t anyone else to choose from. What I don’t understand is why Dexter Strickland is playing so many minutes. Strickland is a non factor in the halfcourt offensively. He can’t shoot or drive the ball. Most of Strickland’s offense comes out of transition. Another thing, where did Strickland get this title as a big time defender because I don’t see it. It’s not like there aren’t other options, PJ Hairston has arguably been North Carolinas best player this season, yet Strickland plays 26 minutes per game and Hairston plays 19. Seth Curry struggles big time defensively when he has to guard players that are quick with good handles that attack the basket, all of which Strickland is not. The more Dexter Strickland is on the court the better it is for Duke.
SF #35 Reggie Bullock Jr.
Bullock has done a really nice job for the Tar Heels this year, but on vintage Carolina teams he is the third option not the first or second. Bullock is a good defender and offensively is a great shooter. What holds Bullock back is that he really is only a three point threat. If I were to tell you that between Seth Curry and Reggie Bullock one averages 1.9 free throw attempts per game and the other averages 3.9 free throw attempts per game which one is which? That’s right Bullock averages less than 2 free throw attempts per game, with his size, strength and athleticism that is strangely low. There in lies Bullock’s weakest strength his ball handling ability. I’m not sure if Bullock will guard Curry or Sulaimon, but I am very confident Sulaimon will be guarding Bullock. The key will be to run Bullock off the three point line, make him dribble.
PF #43 James Michael McAdoo So.
It’s hard to imagine one players stock dropping one season to the next more than McAdoo’s. If McAdoo entered the draft last year he would have been selected somewhere between 8-12. Fast forward one year and McAdoo is slotted 19th according to Draft Express and that number is continuing to fall. I never got all of the hoopla for McAdoo, great athlete with a limited skill set and no defined position. He reminds me of a less skilled Marvin Williams, another player that fell between the three and four spots. Williams got out of school and has worked very hard to become a good three point shooter, something he couldn’t do at all in college. Roy Williams still have McAdoo chained to low block where he just doesn’t have any post moves. His footwork and touch around the basket are very poor and he loves to shoot those baseline fadeaways. 29.7% of McAdoo’s shots come from the baseline, where he is shooting 31%. What McAdoo can do is this, he can offensive rebound, run the floor and play solid defense. Amile Jefferson, Josh Hairston and Alex Murphy just need to make sure to keep him off the offensive glass and force him to turn baseline in the post.
C #14 Desmond Hubert So.
Somehow Dexter Strickland isn’t the worst player in North Carolina’s starting lineup, that honor belongs to Desmond Hubert. It shocked me that North Carolina would recruit a player with so little talent, but to start this guy absolutely stupefies me. Hubert is long and athletic. Those are his only skills, he literally cant do anything else. Per 40 minutes Hubert still only averages 4.7 points per game and 7 rebounds per game. Hubert can block a few shots, but literally doesn’t have to be accounted for anything else. Hopefully Roy decides to bump Hubert’s minutes up even more with the Joel James injury.
Key Reserves
SG #15 PJ Hairston So.
Hairston had a really rough freshmen season, shooting 31% from the field, but credit to him he worked his butt of over the off-season and is now the best scoring threat on the team. Hairston should be starting over Strickland. Not only is Hairston twice the offensive player Strickland is he is at the very least on par defensively with Strickland. Hairston, like Bullock is a great shooter looking to take the three. What separates Hairston from Bullock is that Hairston is a better ball handler and slashes to the basket. Hairston will really be a scary player if he can add a middle game to his repertoire. If Hairston is in the game with Bullock it will be really tough for Duke to matchup. Seth Curry is giving up a lot of size and strength to Hairston and Bullock. Only thing is Hairston doesn’t play a ton of minutes as is, but plays even less with Bullock.
SG #2 Leslie McDonald Jr.
McDonald is another really good shooter, but he doesn’t slash to the basket like Hairston, nor is he the defender that Bullock is. Curry should be able to guard McDonald no problem. Curry does a good job of tailing shooters and not allowing them to get open looks. As long as Duke tags McDonald he should be a non factor offensively.
PF #11 Brice Johnson Fr.
Johnson is a big time offensive player, averaging 22 points per 40 minutes. Johnson is super long and super athletic, but also super skinny. Johnson is listed at only 185 pounds. Think back to John Henson freshmen year size and then take away the a lot of the shot blocking ability. While Johnson is terrific offensively and on the glass he is equally as bad defensively. He is one of the worst defenders I have seen in college basketball this year, his awareness is non existent. That being said if I am Roy Williams I am going to play Johnson way more minutes than Desmond Hubert. It’s not like Hubert is good defensively and offensively Johnson averages more points in 10 minutes than Hubert does in 40. This is actually a good matchup for Amile Jefferson. Jefferson isn’t quite as skilled or athletic, but is way more polished and smarter.
SF #25 JP Tokoto
Tokoto has surprised me a little bit. I thought he was just going to be an athlete with zero skill, but having watched him a few times there is some definite skill there. I think he can become a better version of David Noel. If he’s in the game you just have to back off of him and force him to take long jump shots, he’s a wing player with 1 three pointer on the season at 9%. Until he can become a respectable shooter it is tough to play him all that much right now.
PF #21 Jackson Simmons So.
Simmons is by far the least talented player in the rotation when you consider skill and athleticism, but he is stronger and smarter than most every other player on the team. Simmons reminds me of David McClure, just out there to do all of the little things. North Carolina has looked their best when he is on the floor with McAdoo, but Roy Williams has failed to see it. Simmons is only averaging 8 minutes per game. If Simmons does get some extended time then you don’t have to worry about guarding him, but you do have to keep him off of the glass.
*Freshmen center Joel James suffered a concussion against Wake Forest and will not play.
Final Thoughts and Prediction
If I were coaching North Carolina Dexter Strickland would see a massive decrease in playing time and Desmond Hubert wouldn’t be in the rotation at all. I would probably boot Tokoto out of the rotation as well, I just can’t have a guard on the floor who cant shoot past 15 feet. I am going to play Hairston and Simmons a whole lot more, as well as give Johnson a solid boost in minutes. Offensively I’d ditch the post offense and use McAdoo as the in more mid post isolations where he can face up and use his speed and athleticism. I am also going to run Bullock and Hairston off a ton of screens both on and off the ball. Never the less I am not the coach of the Tar Heels so you don’t have to worry. Roy Williams will most likely continue down the path he has gone all season and for most of his career.
As for Duke they need to get back in transition on defense. NC State has burnt Duke twice this season and North Carolina plays even faster than the Wolfpack. Another thing Duke has struggled with is ball screen defense. Boston College almost single handily beat Duke exclusively with the ball screen. The ball screen is a big part of the North Carolina offense, but has mainly been ineffective this year because they really don’t have anyone to turn the corner off the screen. Offensive rebounding will play a big role in this game as well, North Carolina will bang the boards. Lastly Duke needs to make Strickland, Paige, Hubert, etc. beat them and not let their three point shooters get going. I look at the matchup and I am worried that if Hairston and Bullock play extended minutes together that Duke is going to have real tough time stopping them. On the flip side I just don’t see how Carolina stops Duke. Paige wont be able to check Cook, they are awful as a team at guarding the three, and good luck to their bigs trying to stop Plumlee. I think in the end the talent and the homecourt push the Blue Devils over the top in a high scoring fun game.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: DUKE: 87 NORTH CAROLINA: 77
By Ray Horn
