Few games on the college basketball calendar carry the weight of Duke versus North Carolina, and Saturday’s matchup in Chapel Hill looks every bit as competitive as the rivalry demands. According to MyGameSim’s latest simulations, this one projects as a narrow Duke victory in a game that should stay close deep into the second half.
After running 1000+ simulations of the matchup, MyGameSim projects Duke winning 79.1 to 76.1. While Duke comes out on top in the average score, the distribution of outcomes shows just how tight this game figures to be. Duke won 58.2 percent of predictions, while UNC won 41.8 percent.. A quarter of all simulations finished as a close game decided by fewer than five points, and eight simulations went to overtime.
The projected first half also points to a back and forth start, with Duke holding a slim 40.0 to 38.1 average halftime edge. This is not a game MyGameSim expects to be decided early.
On the Duke side, the projection is led by Cameron Boozer, who is expected to have a big night. Boozer tops all players with 23.95 points, along with 10.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists, giving Duke a clear focal point offensively. Isaiah Evans is projected to add 14.0 points, while Patrick Ngongba II contributes 10.95 points and 6.3 rebounds, giving Duke solid interior production. As a team, Duke is projected to score just over 80 points, shoot 46.8 percent from the field, and get to the free throw line at a strong rate.
UNC’s offense is projected to be more balanced, with Caleb Wilson leading the Tar Heels at 18.1 points and 9.5 rebounds. Seth Trimble and Henri Veesaar are both projected to score in double figures, each around 12 points, while Luka Bogavac adds nearly nine points and over two assists. UNC’s projected total of 77.7 points reflects an efficient night offensively, especially if the Tar Heels can capitalize at the free throw line where they are projected to shoot nearly 69 percent.
The simulation breakdown suggests Duke’s advantage comes from consistency rather than dominance. While Duke has more blowout wins in the simulation set, the most common outcome is still a close, competitive game that comes down to late possessions. With 25 percent of simulations finishing within five points, this matchup profiles as one that could swing on execution in the final minutes.
As always with this rivalry, the numbers tell part of the story, but the atmosphere in Chapel Hill will play a major role once the ball goes up. MyGameSim sees Duke as the slight favorite, but UNC is very much in this game.
Fans can run their own simulations and explore full projected player stats by visiting the Duke at UNC prediction page on MyGameSim.
