Fourteen NBA games tonight, and the best one is a rematch less than 24 hours in the making. Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:00 PM ET: the GameSim projection has Cleveland 118.6, Oklahoma City 117.0, across 280 simulations. That is a 1.6-point edge for the road team, one night after these same two teams played in Cleveland, where the Thunder won 117-112 after the sims had the Cavaliers by 6.4.
My take: the sims are not apologizing for last night, they are doubling down. A model that liked Cleveland by more than six at home does not suddenly love Oklahoma City just because one game went the other way, and tonight it still has the Cavaliers, this time by a bucket and a half on the road. If you believe last night was the outlier, tonight is your receipt. If you believe the Thunder own this matchup now, the sims just handed you a road underdog to root against. Either way, this is the game to watch.
The big favorite: Detroit by sixteen over Philadelphia
If the headliner is a coin flip, Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons, 7:00 PM ET, is the statement game. The GameSim projection has Detroit 113.9, Philadelphia 97.6, the second-largest margin on the board. Holding a team under 100 in the modern NBA is the sims saying this one is decided by defense, not by a hot shooting night.
My take: sixteen points is a lot of respect for a home team, and Detroit has earned it in the early season. Philadelphia scoring under 100 on the road is the model telling you the Pistons control the pace, the glass, and probably the fourth quarter too.
The rest of the favorite column is just as clear. Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:00 PM ET: New Orleans 119.0, Utah 105.2. Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks, 7:30 PM ET: New York 110.8, Chicago 98.5. Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET: Boston 115.9, Milwaukee 107.3, in a matchup that still carries real Eastern Conference weight no matter what the standings say in November.
The blowout watch: Memphis by twenty-two over Indiana
The largest margin on the board belongs to Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies, 8:00 PM ET: Memphis 126.5, Indiana 104.3. Twenty-two points is not a prediction, it is the sims clearing their throat before saying the quiet part out loud. My take: when a model puts 126 on one side of a November game, it is not forecasting a shootout, it is forecasting one team getting whatever it wants, all night.
More coin flips: Atlanta in Washington, Miami in Los Angeles
Two more games the sims could barely split. Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards, 7:00 PM ET: Washington 111.1, Atlanta 109.6. Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers, 10:30 PM ET: Miami 115.5, Los Angeles 111.1. My take: when the model gives you two coin flips on the same night, that is not indecision, that is honesty. These are the games where one run, one cold stretch, one star taking over decides it.
One more for the road
Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 PM ET: Brooklyn 99.5, Charlotte 93.6. Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets, 8:30 PM ET: Houston 119.5, Minnesota 111.3. Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns, 9:00 PM ET: Portland 119.6, Phoenix 108.6, a road call with real conviction. Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets, 9:00 PM ET: Toronto 117.6, Denver 112.0, another road team the sims like. Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs, 9:30 PM ET: San Antonio 117.0, Dallas 111.4. And the late game, Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings, 10:00 PM ET: Los Angeles 121.6, Sacramento 112.6.
The report card: yesterday's NHL card goes 4-for-11, with the headliner coin flip landing
State it plainly first: yesterday's featured NHL card went 4-for-11 on called winners, graded on the projections printed in yesterday's article, and the favorite column took its lumps. Columbus beat Colorado 7-2 after the sims had the Avalanche by nearly a goal and a half, and Nashville beat Carolina 4-1 after a projected Hurricanes win by more than a goal. The road calls in Montreal, New York, Toronto, and Vancouver all flipped too, as Winnipeg won in Montreal 5-4, the Rangers beat St. Louis 3-1, Utah won in Toronto 3-2, and Anaheim won in Vancouver 5-4. The Washington coin flip flipped as well, as Dallas beat Washington 6-5 after the sims had the Capitals by a tenth.
But the headliner coin flip landed, and it deserves the same plain treatment. New Jersey beat Edmonton 4-3 after the sims had the Devils by a tenth of a goal. The clear favorite calls held too: Minnesota won in Philadelphia 4-2, Tampa Bay beat Detroit 4-2, and Vegas won in Pittsburgh 3-2. Four winners right, seven wrong, a flipped favorite column and a headliner coin flip that cashed. That is a rough night on winners, and the value in the sims tonight is in the totals, the projected stats, and the next card, not in pretending last night went better than it did.
GameSim line: Cleveland by 1.6 in Oklahoma City in the rematch, Detroit by more than sixteen over Philadelphia, and Memphis by twenty-two over Indiana.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and none of the games today have been played yet. Yesterday the featured calls went 4-for-11 on winners, with the headliner coin flip landing. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong today.
