The headliner: Golden State heads to San Antonio, and the sims like the Spurs by five
Friday, 9:30 PM ET: Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs. The GameSim projection is San Antonio 115.3, Golden State 110.1, across 280 simulations. Five points at home against the Warriors is a real statement, and the model is making it with Victor Wembanyama projected for 28.3 points, 14.0 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks.
The projected stats back the home side. Dylan Harper is projected for 16.7 points and 4.2 assists, and De'Aaron Fox adds 13.7 points and 5.3 assists for San Antonio. Golden State's answer, per the sims, is Yaxel Lendeborg at 23.2 points and Brandin Podziemski at 19.6, with Draymond Green projected for 6.8 assists running the offense.
My take: the Spurs do not need Wembanyama to go for 30 to win a game the sims already have them taking by five, they just need the 28-and-14 number and the supporting cast to keep Golden State honest. The Warriors flip this one if Lendeborg and Podziemski both clear their projections, because 43 combined points from those two changes the math in a hurry. If San Antonio controls the paint, the model looks right. If Golden State gets hot from deep, Friday night in Texas gets interesting fast.
The rest of the nine-game NBA card
At 8:00 PM ET, Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat. The GameSim projection is Cleveland 114.2, Miami 113.2, across 280 simulations, a one-point margin that is basically a coin flip with a jersey on. My take: the model genuinely cannot tell you who wins this one, and that is the honest answer. The combined total of 227.4 is the angle the numbers actually support.
Also at 8:00 PM ET, Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans, Memphis 119.2, New Orleans 114.3. That 233.5 combined total is the highest on tonight's board, and the sims are saying points, points, points. And Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls, Atlanta 116.7, Chicago 113.9, another game that should stay close into the fourth quarter.
Earlier, at 7:00 PM ET, Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic, Orlando 111.5, Milwaukee 105.7, and New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, New York 110.4, Indiana 107.2. At 8:30 PM ET, Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets, Houston 119.4, Utah 98.9, the widest margin on the card by a mile, and the sims are not hedging it. Late, at 10:00 PM ET, Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings, Portland 118.0, Sacramento 109.0, and at 10:30 PM ET, Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City 116.2, Los Angeles 109.6. My take: Houston is the statement pick of the night, Cleveland at Miami is the one to watch if you like close games, and Portland by nine on the road is the quiet lean.
Friday night college football: Florida State at Pittsburgh is the close one
At 7:00 PM ET, Florida State at Pittsburgh. The GameSim projection is Pittsburgh 32.3, Florida State 30.8, across 580 simulations. A point and a half at home is the tightest college line of the night, and the sims are saying this one comes down to the final possession. My take: Pittsburgh holds serve at home, but Florida State keeps it close enough that the fourth quarter matters.
Later, at 9:00 PM ET, Illinois at UCLA, UCLA 33.2, Illinois 23.9, across 580 simulations. And at 10:15 PM ET, Houston at Colorado, Houston 35.0, Colorado 26.8, across 580 simulations. My take: UCLA by nine at home and Houston by eight on the road are the steadier calls of the Friday night card, and the sims are not shy about either one.
Quick hits from the college hardwood and the ice
From college hoops, at 8:00 PM ET, Virginia at Maryland. The GameSim projection is Virginia 90.0, Maryland 71.6, across 200 simulations. Eighteen points on the road in a rivalry game is a loud number, and the model is making it without blinking. Earlier, at 6:00 PM ET, Georgetown at Clemson, Clemson 84.7, Georgetown 80.4, and at 6:30 PM ET, Pittsburgh at Butler, Pittsburgh 85.3, Butler 78.8. At 7:00 PM ET, Georgia at UNC, UNC 82.5, Georgia 77.2, and Northern Iowa at Michigan State, Michigan State 82.7, Northern Iowa 78.3, both across 220 simulations.
On the ice, two games, two coin flips. At 9:00 PM ET, New York Rangers at Vancouver Canucks, New York 2.9, Vancouver 2.8, and at 10:00 PM ET, Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights, Vegas 3.3, Nashville 3.2, both across 280 simulations. My take: when the sims split two games by a tenth of a goal, the honest call is that either side can take it, and the totals are the better angle.
The report card: yesterday's card goes 7-for-9, and the scoring exploded
State it plainly first: yesterday's featured card went 7-for-9 on called winners, graded on the projections printed in yesterday's article, with one no-call. The NFL went 0-for-1, college football 2-for-2, the NBA 2-for-3, the NHL 2-for-2, and college hoops 1-for-1. It was a strong night, and the misses were both real.
The misses were the headliner and a coin flip. Washington won at New York 24-21 after the sims had the Giants by 6.3, the Thursday night call going the wrong way on a thousand-run sample. And Philadelphia beat Toronto 123-112 after the sims had the Raptors by 1.4, a coin flip that landed the other way.
But the card earned its record. Memphis won at USF 52-41, Louisiana won at UL Monroe 42-21, Detroit won at Washington 144-140, Phoenix beat Charlotte 101-96, Minnesota won at Toronto 5-2, Montreal won at Boston 5-2, and BYU beat Montana State 86-71.
And the model deserves credit where it earned it. Phoenix won by exactly five, the projected margin, and Montreal landed on five goals against a projected 4.0. The totals did real work too: the Dallas at Minnesota game was printed as a dead heat at 111.2 apiece, a no-call, with a combined total of 222.5, and the actual total landed at 227, so the over angle the article pointed to came through even as Minnesota ran away with it 133-94, the biggest swing of the night. Scoring exploded across the board, with Detroit and Washington combining for 284 points against a projected 214.8 and Memphis and USF combining for 93 against a projected 57.8, so the overs were the story. The GameSim line went 1-for-3, graded on covering the projected margin, with Memphis covering by eleven and the Giants and Pistons legs missing, Detroit winning by four against a seven-point line. One note on the batch: on the final batch of sims, the card would grade 8-for-10, with Toronto at Philadelphia flipping to a hit and the Minnesota coin flip becoming a Dallas call that missed, the final batch having Dallas by a hair at 112.0 to 111.4. Eight winners right, two wrong, a strong night with the big calls on both sides of the ledger, and the totals and projected stats still doing real work underneath it.
GameSim line: San Antonio by five over Golden State, Cleveland by one in Miami, and Houston by twenty over Utah.
All scores above are MyGameSim projections from the simulations run so far, and none of the games today have been played yet. Yesterday the featured calls went 7-for-9 on winners, with college football at 2-for-2, the NHL at 2-for-2, and the biggest swing in Minnesota, where the Timberwolves won 133-94 after the sims called a dead heat. Run your own sims, check the totals and projected stats, and tell me where the model is wrong today.
