After a lead-in on Thursday, I think tonight’s games will prove to be the more competitive of the Sweet 16. So, here are my reports and predictions for the remaining South and Midwest Regions …
#1 Louisville vs #12 Oregon at 7:15 PM ET in Indianapolis (Midwest Region)
Suffice to say that Oregon’s seeding was the most egregious slap in the face by the Selection Committee. The problem is that unless the Ducks can somehow beat the Big East Tournament Champions, everyone will forget them before they go to bed and continue to consider them a football school.
Rick Pitino’s Cardinals have gotten progressively better since the start of the season and are peaking at the right time again this year.
Oregon, out of the PAC-12 conference finished the year by winning their conference tournament over UCLA, the regular season winner. Louisville won the Big East Tournament after spotting Syracuse the first half in the championship game.
Regardless of whether this Louisville team comes out hot or not, they have the ability to take over a game at any time and that’s why I believe they deserve being favoured by 10 points.
#1 Kansas vs #4 Michigan at 7:37PM ET in Arlington, Texas (South Region)
On paper, this is probably the most evenly matched game of the entire Sweet 16. There is so little difference between these teams that you could use that paper to separate them. That’s probably why Kansas has been favoured by only 2 points.
Michigan has so many ways to beat their opponents and have exhibited most of them so far getting to this point. Kansas has taken a little longer to get going, but when they did the games were over.
I think Frosh Mitch McGary, who is coming off a career performance against VCU (21 Pts. & 14 Rbs.) will test Jeff Withey’s renowned defense. Michigan will use all of their weapons, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Glenn Robinson led by Trey Burke, but if Burke gets his scoring touch back, it’s over for Kansas. He has struggled with bad shooting averages as of late, but still found a way to get to double digits.
I’ve been dismayed to see Coach Bill Self publicly berate his kids, and while some might think it was an act to inspire, I think he still uttered the truth. I think this is a weaker team by comparison to some of his in the past.
I tend to differ with the odds makers and think Coach John Beilein leads his team to the Elite 8, taking out the second #2 Seed of the Big Dance.
#2 Duke vs #3 Michigan at 9:45PM ET in Indianapolis (Midwest Region)
In every Big Dance, there are coaches who are worth an advantage of up to five (5) points in a close game. This game is the exception since both these coaches are on that list. I’m a Duke fan and I could not want for a better match-up in the Big Dance but I just wish it were after a few more games. This is a classic match-up if you ever saw one.
Coach K will be leading the same Senior line-up he started the season out with, but the difference this time is that they are severely underachieving. Ryan Kelly returned to a career night against Miami, but his scoring has been muted as of late. Mason Plumlee has been the player I have decried all season for sub-par performances considering that he is a four (4) year Senior. Both of the wins that got them here have been due to excellent scoring by Seth Curry and Rasheed Sulaimon, quarterbacked by Quinn Cook.
Coach Izzo will have his QB returning in Keith Appling, who leads them in scoring and with Assists. He has had Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix down low scoring and rebounding, while Gary Harris has been unstoppable at times. They are a powerful team.
I think this game depends a great deal on Duke’s defense and somehow finding the chutzpa to play them even on the boards. Failing that, Duke needs a lights-out shooting night right from the opening tip. They will not be able to recover from any type of downswing, regardless how short.
I’m sure Coach K will use Josh Hairston and Tyler Thornton first off the bench, especially if foul trouble arrives early for Plumlee. I’ve been critical of Josh because his offensive prowess is so non-existent outside of the paint that his opponent can move off him to double-team Seth or Ryan. I prefer Amile, fresh off a nice game in Philadelphia and Alex, the guy who has gone missing on the bench except for a few excellent appearances when he was allowed to play. Both keep that opponent checked and off those double-teams.
This game will come down to that one player having a special night, and I’m hoping it will be Duke, who are favoured by 2 points.
#3 Florida vs #15 Florida Gulf Coast at 10:07PM ET in Washington DC (East Region)
In a game that has everyone in Florida chatting, from university students to those who fulfill the ancient Seminole name for the state. The problem is that those “Waiting for God” folks will be fast asleep by the time this game tips off.
There’s a story going around that FGC Coach Andy Enfield contacted Florida Coach Billy Donovan to see if they could scrimmage. Donovan turned him down, so this meeting has all sorts of poetic justice surrounding it.
FGC was established in 1991 in Fort Meyers and offers a variety of comprehensive studies from Bio-Engineering to Environmental Research, Criminal Investigation to Environmental Forensics, and Ecology to Aging. They were instituted as part of the 12 campuses of the Florida State University system dedicated to their residents in an effort to attract and maintain another demographic in Florida. They compete in the Atlantic Sun Conference.
The Golden Eagles have a very balanced attack that is fun to watch. We’ve been treated to the locker room speeches by their Captain, and some have even equated their ball movement to the GlobeTrotters, so, suffice to say, they pass the eye-test in both of their previous outings.
Florida has four (4) players averaging double-digit points. When they are firing on all cylinders, they are a pretty team to watch, but if they are not, which is what caused each of their losses this year, they are totally dysfunctional.
If FGC has any advantage it’s that Florida plays very similarly to Georgetown. So, if they can disrupt the Gator’s go-to game, they have a chance, despite being 13 point underdogs.
I always love the underdog upsetting the applecart ,so since both my GrandKids are considering Florida Gulf Coast, I’ll throw my substantial weight and girth behind them to win.
So, if I’m right, Sunday we’ll see #1 Louisville vs #2 Duke in a rematch of their Bahamas match-up early this year for the Midwest Region, and #4 Michigan vs #15 Florida Gulf Coast for the South Region.
Bermuda Bob is a contributing writer for the Duke Sports Blog and an avid Duke Basketball fan. You can follow him on Twitter @TheBermudaBob
