When you think about Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans basketball program two words typically come to mind: Rebounding and physical.
The match up of Duke’s big men and Michigan State’s could be a difference maker.
You don’t necessarily think about precision or flashiness, but what you do get from Michigan State is a hard nosed brand of basketball that is very blue collar and has been very successful over the years.
And as is often the case with Tom Izzo’s Michigan State teams, they are beginning to peak in March. Duke on the other hand, hasn’t been awful but they haven’t been great either. The Blue Devils let Albany hang in during the first game of the tournament thanks in part to 9 three pointers.
Creighton was a feast of fouls and if the game is called even remotely the same then you can expect the Blue Devils to have more issues in the front court where the Spartans strength clearly lies. Derrick Nix who has averaged 10 points and nearly 8 rebounds per game.
At 6-foot-9 and 290 pounds he is a mount of a man for Mason Plumlee to have to deal with in the paint and he isn’t the only one. Junior, Adreian Payne at 6-foot-10 and 240 isn’t small potatoes and his numbers are essential book ending Nix’s.
The Spartans best player might just be junior guard Keith Appling who is averaging 13 points per game. Appling who injured his shoulder in Michigan State’s Round of 32 game against Memphis, is expected to play and has practiced with a brace on that injured shoulder.
How that injury may effect his play will be something to watch, but Duke should count on him being a very dangerous weapon unless he shows otherwise.
For Duke to win this game they cannot get killed on the glass. They are likely to lose the battle of the boards but by how much could make a big difference in the game.
The Blue Devils also have to continue to play better perimeter defense and not give Michigan State anything outside of the lane while in the mean time they have to shoot the ball well. Quinn Cook, Seth Curry and Rasheed Sulaimon must be aggressive and attack the basket, especially if their shots are not falling. Granted if their shots fall it will be hard for the Spartans to win.
A key for Duke could if Ryan Kelly can break out of his slump. He hasn’t hit a three point basket since the Virginia Tech game, his second back and has looked far more mortal in the last four games.
If Kelly can manage to break out and have an average game by his standards then that will make the Blue Devils even more difficult to beat. His ability to stretch out the Michigan State bigs, if he is hitting shots from the outside will open things up in the middle for Plumlee as well as the guards who can attack the basket.
Duke is a two-point favorite and I fully expect a close game. If the Blue Devils can avoid the foul troubles that plagued them against Creighton and they can shoot the ball well without giving up too much on the defensive end against Michigan State then they should win this game.
Mike Krzyzewski has only lost to Tom Izzo one time in 8 tries, but that was also in the Sweet 16 with Duke a higher seeded team. Izzo has his teams geeked for March basketball so they are very dangerous. Expect a battle between these two teams.
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