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ACC Bubble Analysis for 2/25

   Posted by All Sports Discussion at  2/25/2013 7:34:10 PM  |  Follow us on Twitter: @scacchoops
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How much did Miami loss at Wake Forest hurt the Canes? Were there any other teams making a move? Let’s find out.

In my ranking system, any RPI win top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater than 150 losses.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.

Locks

(1) Duke (24-3) (11-3) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (17) Minnesota, * (8) Louisville, * (36) VCU, * (19) Ohio St, * (41) Temple, * (46) Kentucky, (89) Santa Clara, (65) Maryland, (78) Florida State, (94) Florida Gulf Coast, * (24) North Carolina State, (90) Santa Clara, * (22) UNC, (87) Davidson

Bad Losses -None

Notes – The Blue Devils are currently playing their best basketball since Ryan Kelly was playing. They get their shot at revenge when Miami visits Saturday for a huge game featuring two top 5 teams.

(2) Miami (22-4) (13-1) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (9-1)

Good Wins – (60) UNC Charlotte, * (9) Michigan St., (55) Massachusetts, * (37) LaSalle, * (22) UNC, (61) Detroit, (65) Maryland, * (1) Duke, (78) Florida State, * (24) NC State, * (22) UNC, * (22) UNC, (78) Florida State, (73) Virginia

Bas Losses –  (109) Florida Gulf Coast, (147) Wake Forest

Notes – You knew it was coming. Miami just wasn’t playing that well the last 10 days, but no one could have seen a 15 point loss at Wake Forest coming. Miami can still earn a number 1 seed, but they’ll probably need to either win at Duke Saturday or win the ACCT. Other than that they’ll need help. They are still a strong 2 seed.

(22) North Carolina (19-8) (9-5) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins –  * (14) UNLV, (78) Florida State, (65) Maryland, (73) Virginia, * (24) NC State, (94) East Carolina

Bad Losses – * (144) Texas

Notes – Don’t look now, but the Heels are making a case for being the 3rd best team in the ACC. Roy Williams rarely gets credit for his coaching moves, but the change to the small lineup is making UNC a team you don’t want to face at the moment.

(24) North Carolina State (19-8) (8-6) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (28) Connecticut, (55) Massachusetts, (65) Stanford, * (1) Duke, * (22) North Carolina, (78) Florida State

Bad Losses – (147) Wake Forest

Notes – The Wolfpack can improve their seeding with a light finishing schedule before the ACCT. They get BC at home followed a game at Georgia Tech Sunday.

Bubble But In

(73) Virginia (19-8) (9-5) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (57) Tennessee, * (25) Wisconsin, * (22) North Carolina, (78) Florida State, * (24) NC State, (65) Maryland

Bad Losses – (145) Delaware, * (324) Old Dominion, (148) Clemson, (147) Wake Forest, (141) George Mason, (140) Georgia Tech

Notes – I just couldn’t leave out a team with 3 top 25 RPI wins, but the Cavs could really use a win over Duke this week to solidfy their resume. A game at Boston College is dangerous.

Bubble But Out

(65) Maryland (19-8) (7-7) 

Last 10 – (5-5)

Good Wins – * (24) NC State, (89) Stony Brook, * (1) Duke

Bad Losses – (136) Boston College

Notes – Maryland followed up their landmark win over a Duke, with an ugly loss at Boston College. The Terps need to win at both Georgia Tech and Wake Forest to get back into the NCAA discussion.

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(78) Florida State (14-13) (6-8)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (85) St. Josephs, (58) BYU, (60) Charlotte, (65) Maryland, (65) Maryland

Bad Losses – * (150) South Alabama, * (146) Mercer, * (218) Auburn, (147) Wake Forest, (171) Virginia Tech

Notes – The Noles are reeling, losers of 4 of their last 5. Did the Noles really start the ACC season 2-0 on the road?

(140) Georgia Tech (14-12) (4-10)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (43) St. Marys, (73) Virginia

Bad Losses – * (171) Virginia Tech, (148) Clemson, (148) Clemson

Notes – The Yellow Jackets haven’t broken 70 points in almost a month.

(147) Wake Forest (12-14) (5-9)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (95) Xavier, * (24) NC State, (78) Florida State, (73) Virginia, * (2) Miami

Bad Losses –   (121) Seton Hall, * (171) Virginia Tech, * (148) Clemson, (140) Georgia Tech, (124) Iona, (100) Nebraska, (140) Georgia Tech, (136) Boston College

Notes – Wake Forest dominated Miami in their 80-65 win, and I mean dominated Miami. If you can figure out Wake Forest, let the rest of us know.

(136) Boston College (12-15) (4-10)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (81) Providence, (65) Maryland

Bad Losses –  (147) Wake Forest, (130) Bryant, * (154) Charleston, (122) Dayton

Notes – Boston College may not make the NCAAs but at home they can certainly put a dent in any bubble team’s hopes. Just ask Maryland… Virginia better be ready for their visit to Boston.

(148) Clemson (13-13) (5-9)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (97) UTEP, (73) Virginia

Bad Losses – (125) Purdue, * (235) Coastal Carolina, (136) Boston College

Notes – Can Clemson can a pull a upset of UNC in LittleJohn? Sure it can happen, the game is not in Chapel Hill where the Tigers have never won ever…

(171) Virginia Tech (12-15) (3-11) 

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins –  * (26) Oklahoma St,  (91) Iowa, (78) Florida State

Bad Losses – *(294) Georgia Southern, (136) Boston College, (148) Clemson, (140) Georgia Tech, (108) West Virginia

Notes – I’m starting to get behind Erick Green as the ACC POY, and I didn’t think I’d do that for a last place ACC team. That’s the kind of season Green is having.

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