The explosions & loud noises you heard last night weren't any kind of storm or construction, it was Wolfpack nation going into panic mode as NC State lost at Wake Forest 86-84. It wasn't just a loss, it was a collapse for the Pack. NC State held a 47-35 halftime lead, and not only lost that lead but trailed by double-figures in the 2nd half to Wake Forest. Check out this graph of Offensive Efficiency for both teams. NC State's offensive efficiency is charted is in blue, Wake Forest in green. You can see NC State started out scoring very efficiently but Wake Forest started to turn things around late in the 1st half. What changed?
Here's another chart, this time a look at offensive rebound percentage. Once again, NC State is charted in blue, while Wake is in green. First, notice that Wake Forest quickly makes up an advantage late in the 1st half on their defensive glass. By early in the 2nd half NC State's advantage is gone, but Wake Forest doesn't stop there taking the lead in offensive rebounding percentage only to lose the lead late in the game.
The other obvious issue for NC State is their defense. NC State is now ranked 156th in adjusted defensive efficiency (kenpom.com). Using Luke Winn's recent article, since 2002-3 no team with a defensive efficiency ranking greater than 101 has made it to the final 8. NC State has to figure the defense out or it will be an early exit for them in March.
Wake Forest fans, the good news is its a great win, the bad news if you're one of the #BuzzOut people, Bzdelik just added some job security with that win.
In the other game of the night, Maryland beat BC at home 64-59. Check out the links below for the recap of that one and a look ahead to tonight's games.
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