Way Too Early Look At Duke 2012-2013 - SCACCHoops.com

Way Too Early Look At Duke 2012-2013

by WebMaster

Posted: 5/20/2012 6:27:57 PM


Well after a fun but brief sabbatical in Las Vegas I am back and apparently something good happened while I was away.  The much awaited decision of Amile Jefferson, Duke's last target for the class of 2012, a target I wasn't at all optimistic would end up joining the Blue Devils, proved me wrong and last Tuesday announced that he would in fact play for Duke.

That is of course the good news but what does it mean in the short and long term. You may recall I grouped Duke fans into three categories before, the realistic fans, the chicken little fans and the delusional overly optimistic fans.

All probably have their particular take on the Jefferson news but I strongly urge all to really consider that Jefferson is just one player and his decision, while refreshing considering what had been a terrible offseason, is only a faction of what will comprise the Duke team next season.

Jefferson is skilled and will be of use for Mike Krzyzewski and the Duke team as a whole, but he isn't an elite one and done talent that is going to come in from day one and change the landscape of college basketball.

He isn't Kyrie Irving and he isn't Austin Rivers, though some may be glad of that. He is a modest kid with a lot of talent, but he is still a freshman and he is going to have a learning curve.

So how does he fit into Duke next season?

For starters he likely won't start. The starting lineup really is still up in the air but you figure you will have either Quinn Cook or Tyler Thornton starting at the point guard position. Seth Curry will surely be in at one of the guards and at this point I'd have to lean toward incoming freshman Rasheed Sulaimon starting in what would be a three guard line up.

There is a strong possibility that Alex Murphy, whom the Duke coaching staff and especially Mike Krzyzewski has been very high on, could end up winning a spot if Sulaimon isn't as ready.

You also figure that Ryan Kelly and of course Mason Plumlee will start in the post. It isn't a traditional post, with Kelly's ability to take his game outside but it is still one that should, at least from a starters perspective be very good.

Mason Plumlee showed glimpses of coming into his own and of course by coming back for his senior year we all will get to see if he can become a consistent go-to, dominant big man at the college level.

Kelly's ability to stretch defenses makes him invaluable as we all found out when he wasn't available during last season's ACC Tournament and first round debacle against Lehigh.

But beyond those two post players Duke will have a drop off. Josh Hairston is the most experienced of that group that will include Marshall Plumlee and now Jefferson. Hairston is more of a jump shooter, or so he fashions himself, than a low post banger and he is also a bit undersized at the power forward, and not skilled enough to stretch defenses like Kelly.

Marshall Plumlee is said to be Duke's most traditional back-to-the-basket big man but he is also very much still an unknown commodity. Jefferson is lanky and athletic but also will have no experience playing at the college level.

He, as I mentioned before, isn't the kind of talent that is going to wow you from day one, so Duke fans are best to remain patient with his development. Don't expect Elton Brand, think more Antonio Lang meets Lance Thomas.

So the beyond the starters the post is potential susceptible problems if there are injuries and or foul trouble.

The perimeter will again be the strength with senior Curry leading the way. I figure an intense battle for the point guard position between Cook and Thornton. Thornton is more of a defensive leader while Cook is more of a creator on the offensive end.

Cook is the better pure point guard and if his defense improves he should eventually get the nod, though expect starters minutes from Thornton, if for no other reason than his ability to defend and his leadership. Perhaps Krzyzewski will take a page from Duke Football coach, David Cutcliffe's play book, and go with a point guard shuffle similar to the one the football team uses with its quarterbacks?

Sulaimon appears to be a potential star and if his defense is as good as it appears to be, then he will see a lot of playing time. He is said to be a good shooter and that will help, but after last season the Blue Devils need some perimeter defenders to emerge.

Curry will have to step up his game and without Austin Rivers, who, he deferred too much to, last season, he should be ready to do that as a shooter and a penetrating guard.

The Blue Devils still don't know the status of senior Andre Dawkins, who could very well redshirt in order to help him deal with various issues that he has been dealing with since his freshman year.

If Dawkins is somehow able and ready to play mentally, he has shown that physically he can be an offensive weapon that is hard to stop when he is on.

Overall the outlook for Duke circa 2012-2013 looks to be good. I see this team as a solid Top 15 and potential Top 10 team by season's end depending on how well they defend. I still think there are several question marks at this point that make me feel that perhaps a national title run is out of the picture, but then again my prognostication record hasn't exactly been great lately.

We will all find out in a few months when the team plays again, but until then it is all way too early speculation.

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