It’s time to admit that it may have been presumptuous to assume that we’d win 30 games or more in perpetuity after the success of the last two seasons. Talent, scheme, and personality have to fit perfectly (with a few lucky breaks sprinkled in) to produce 28-2 regular seasons or 33-3 calendar years. That’s why teams don’t do it more frequently. If any of those things — or even any of the disparate ingredients that contribute to the entirety of any one of those things — goes awry, you find yourself 13-4 and scrapping for road wins.
I think we need to readjust expectations. Maybe a 21-9 team that goes 10-8 in the ACC isn’t what we had in mind when the season started (or when we beat Villanova, for that matter), but that record would make us a scary six or seven seed, and it can be fun to be the scary six or seven seed. I know it’s not as fun as penciling us into your Final Four, but think of the money that a Virginia team that rounds into form at the end of the season could conceivably take from people in office pools.
When you’re feeling down about games like last night, remember that either you or fans before you survived the ugly breakup with Jeff Jones, a 14-34 ACC record over a three season stretch in the late-2000s, Calvin Baker-led fast breaks, Keith Jenifer playing point, the And-1 jerseys, and Keith Jenifer playing point in the And-1 jerseys. Things could be much, much worse. I’m as disappointed as any of you that we haven’t clicked in 2016 like we did before the calendar flipped, but I’m trying to stay optimistic.
If you’ve watched Virginia in 2016, last night’s loss in Tallahassee was more of the same. The offense clunked along, hitching and smoking in a way reminiscent of when my wife and I rented an SUV in California that we didn’t realize was a manual/automatic hybrid set to manual until we were on the freeway, and the defense allowed driving lanes the size of said freeway and yielded open threes on demand. Our first five ACC opponents have now scored a point per possession (with two exceeding 1.1), which is the first time that we’ve allowed that to happen since 2010-2011, the year Mike Scott got hurt in December and a motley crew of freshmen and sophomores teamed up with Assane and Mustapha Farrakhan had to carry the load. This team’s talent level and expectations are slightly higher than those of that group.
Things felt OK for a little while last night. We led 28-20 after a 14-4 run spurred on by successful transition opportunities (more on that later), and it looked like we might be able to grab a double digit lead going into the break. Instead, Malcolm and Evan sandwiched rough misses around a Dwayne Bacon jumper, London committed an inexplicable five second call, and Xavier Rathan-Mayes got into the lane to set up Malik Beasley for a wide-open corner three, which he drilled as time expired. The feel good run was erased, and the momentum sat squarely with the home team.
The defense fell apart in the second half. FSU rained threes on us (4-5 in the second half after going 2-7 in the first) and got to the line, and hey! That’s what people who are paid to do this say is the most efficient way to score points. It worked: the Seminoles scored 44 points (1.4 per possession) in the half and a roughshod effort to keep up fell short on our end, thanks in part to foul trouble on Anthony Gill (he scored nine of his 13 in the last 7:41 after sitting much of the half) and in part to our cluelessness about what to do when opponents front the post. Malcolm’s numbers (4-17, 10 points) reflected the quality of his shot selection, though I’m starting to wonder if the choices he’s making are because he knows the offense is broken and he feels pressure as our resident Wooden Award candidate to create something on his own to try to save things.
I know that Tony Bennett brings the Blocker/Mover on offense, the Pack Line on defense, and a belief that predictability is acceptable (and even unstoppable) when accompanied by execution. He’s right — we’ve seen proof — but it’s hard not to get impatient as a fan when the team fails to execute on one end or another for a few weeks in a row and seems helpless when opponents make seemingly basic adjustments.
So, just five games into the ACC schedule, is it rash to want the team to run a little more off of defensive rebounds and maybe bring the ball up the floor a little faster? Transition chances (even off of a secondary break) play into the strengths of London and AG (arguably our two best scorers of late), and would allow some of the kids (Devon, Marial, Darius) that have been adrift of late to play a less structured game and have a little more fun. I’m just spitballing. We’re 350th of 351 teams in adjusted tempo this season. I’m OK with a deliberate pace when it feels like the team is working toward something, but I’m less OK with it when it feels like we’re dribbling for dribbling’s sake. I know we have weapons on offense. Now, with the defense clearly not what it has been, I want them to be as much of an advantage as they possibly can. CTB has won renown as a “defensive-minded coach” and a “system coach,” but the best in the biz adjust to their personnel and are known simply as great basketball coaches. That’s the next step for him as he grows as a coach.
Some folks — Whitey at the Daily Progress among them — have suggested a tighter rotation being a step toward a fix. CTB took a step in that direction last night by taking Marial Shayok and Jarred Reuter out of the rotation entirely and playing eight guys around figurehead starter Jack Salt (nine minutes). Unfortunately, he didn’t get the results he wanted, and so the experiment seems destined to continue until he does. I see both sides — athletes thrive with routine and a defined role, but CTB wants to find the best combinations of our wealth of depth — but I hope this resolves itself soon.
Clemson, a surprise at 5-1 in the ACC and just two spots out of the top 25 in the AP Poll released today, comes to town tomorrow for what has suddenly become a big game. More soon.
