1,000 sims. One very loud message from the model.
Tonight, 8:15 PM ET: Seahawks at Broncos. Primetime. Altitude. A home crowd in Denver ready to scream — and MyGameSim thinks they're about to watch a road-team coronation.
The projection: Seattle 19.2, Denver 13.7. The Seahawks are nearly a touchdown better than the Broncos at Mile High. On Thursday night. Under the lights. If that doesn't raise your eyebrows, check your pulse.
Here's my take: Denver's offense is about to get exposed
Look at what the model actually believes about Bo Nix in this game: 19.2 completions, 168.6 yards, 0.65 touchdowns. At home. That's not a rough night — that's a dink-and-dunk shutdown. The sims have Seattle's defense turning Denver's passing game into a glorified checkdown clinic.
And on the other side? Sam Darnold: 201.1 yards, 1.6 TDs, 8.4 yards per attempt. Efficient. Ruthless. Methodical. While Nix is projected to scratch out 5.6 yards a throw, Darnold is pushing the ball downfield. One of these offenses is going somewhere on Thursday night. The other is going three-and-out.
The run game tells the same story: the sims hand Seattle's backs nearly 20 carries for 69.6 yards (Emanuel Wilson leading the way), while Denver's ground game can't find traction at home. That's how road teams win Thursday games — steal possessions, lean on a defense, and let the home crowd file out early.
Is it possible Denver wakes up at home? Of course. Thursday games get weird — that's the charm. But 1,000 simulations keep coming back to the same answer: Seattle rolls in Denver, and the score flatters the Broncos.
🎰 Perry's line: Seahawks win and cover — and if you're feeling frisky, the defense holds Denver under 14 points in primetime. That's the projection talking.
Quick second take: October baseball, October cruelty
Two playoff games today, and the sims are in a ruthless mood. In the nightcap, Brewers at Dodgers: Los Angeles 5.44, Milwaukee 4.27 across 100 sims. Chavez Ravine, October, the Dodgers' lineup — it's the closest thing this sport has to a scheduled tragedy for the road team.
The matinee is the spicy one: Rays 4.28, Guardians 3.92. A 0.36-run gap. A coin flip wearing a baseball uniform. Tampa and Cleveland are essentially even in the model, which means whoever blinks first in a 1:00 PM ET bullpen chess match decides it.
One more for the road
Rangers 3.34, Devils 1.73 in New Jersey. The sims are handing the Broadway blueshirts a Hudson River rivalry rout while holding the home team under two goals. Newark will be loud. It just won't matter.
All scores above are MyGameSim sim projections — none of these games have been played yet. Run your own sims and come tell me where the model is wrong. I dare you.
