Let's take a look at Florida State Football.
Best / Worst Case Record for :
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Florida State
The collapse of Florida State football has been astonishing. After a 13-0 regular season where FSU, which saw the Noles unjustly left out of the playoffs in 2023, the bottom just fell out of a program in an unimaginable way. Florida State, after going 23-4 in 2022 and 2023, became the worst football program in the ACC, going 3-13 in the ACC over the last 2 years. They went 5-7 in 2025, and it was a 3-game improvement over the year before. Mike Norvell enters the season with his seat on absolute fire, but look under the surface, and FSU was really close to an 8-4 type season. 5 of their losses were by 10 points or less, and of course there was the trouncing of Alabama that shocked the football world. There were glimpses last year of real improvement. Will he see more in 2026?
Will Go 8-4 (5-3) if:
FSU can perform better in the close games. The Seminoles were terrible in 2024, but in 2025 there were some positive signs. If FSU beats SMU, a 4-1 start is a real possibility. I’d have them losing to Alabama, but remember they stuffed the Tide in a locker last year. After that are games at Louisville and at Miami, but even if there is an additional loss somewhere, that could still be an 8-4 type season. There is some talent on the team. Duce Robinson is one of the best WR’s in the ACC, and maybe the country. QB Ashton Daniels is a wild card. He’s flashed potential, and if he can be consistent, then we could see FSU win quite a few games.
Will Go 4-8 (2-7) if:
Florida State still hasn’t figured out how to win. When you only won 7 total games, and 3 ACC games in the last 2 years, that’s a team that has to learn how to win. Sure, there has been the lightning-in-a-bottle win, but this schedule could have them 3-4 with a visit from Clemson. They hit the portal hard again, but it hasn’t helped much the last two years. It could happen. The OOC schedule has Alabama and Florida, and in conference the Noles play the pre-season top 3 ACC teams, SMU, Louisville, and Miami. Virginia should be solid; then there is Clemson, a game at Pitt, and NC State. Those 9 challenging games, and the current version of Florida State could lose most, if not all, of them.
