Week 11 has plenty of ranked teams on the board, and a few of those prices look soft once the simulations start stacking up. One of the better spots kicks off Friday night, so this is not a list to save for Saturday morning.
Here is where GameSim sees upset potential.
Boston College at Notre Dame
This is the wildest gap on the board. Notre Dame is laying about 29.5 at home, and Boston College is sitting around +1800. The market is treating this like a mismatch that should be over by halftime.
Our sims call it a coin flip. Boston College wins 50.8% of the runs, with a projected score of 25.8 to 25.2. A one score game wearing a four touchdown price tag is as loud as a model vs market disagreement gets. If you only open one prediction this week, make it the Boston College at Notre Dame prediction.
Texas at LSU
Death Valley at night, and the books have LSU as a short home favorite, around 3.5 points. Texas is the plus money dog.
GameSim does not see a short favorite. Texas wins 88.5% of simulations and averages a 34.3 to 20.2 win. Tiger Stadium can change anything, but the model is not hedging. The Longhorns as a road underdog are the side the sims keep landing on. Full look: Texas at LSU prediction.
Auburn at Mississippi State
Auburn is a short road favorite at -148, laying about 3, and Mississippi State is +124. The market likes the Tigers, but not by much.
The sims flip it. Mississippi State wins 55.8% of runs, with a projected score of 26.4 to 24.5. Getting the home dog at plus money when the model actually prefers that side is a clean upset watch. See the Auburn at Mississippi State prediction.
Wisconsin at Maryland
Wisconsin is laying 8.5 on the road at -325, and Maryland is +260. That price gives the Terrapins about a 1 in 4 shot.
GameSim has Maryland winning 42.3% of the time, and the average score is only Wisconsin 23.7, Maryland 22.1. A projected one score game with nearly a touchdown and a half on the board is a gap worth noticing. Details: Wisconsin at Maryland prediction.
Florida State at Pittsburgh (Friday)
Friday night in Pittsburgh, and the Panthers are a short favorite at -155, laying 3. Florida State is +130.
The sims call it basically even. Pittsburgh wins 52.4% of runs, with a projected score of 32.4 to 31.1. When the books shrug and the model shrugs with them, the plus money side is still the interesting one. Check the Florida State at Pittsburgh prediction before tipoff.
Alabama at Vanderbilt
Alabama is still the pick in our sims, so this one is a price play. The Tide are laying about 16 or 17 at something like -850, and Vanderbilt is out near +575.
Vanderbilt wins 19.6% of the runs, and the average score is Alabama 34.7, Vanderbilt 24.9. The price implies something closer to 12 or 13%. That gap between sim win rate and implied odds is the upset watch. Full breakdown: Alabama at Vanderbilt prediction.
Quick hitters
- USC at Indiana: Indiana is laying 7.5 at about -285. USC wins 33.8% of sims at +240, a touch better than the price implies, with a projected score of 33.5 to 27.6.
- Nebraska at Rutgers: Nebraska is laying about 13.5. Rutgers wins 28.8% of runs at around +425, well above the roughly 19% the moneyline implies. The projected score is 30.3 to 22.0.
- Utah at Arizona: Utah is a short road favorite around -2.5. Arizona wins 40.8% of sims, and the average score is only 33.7 to 30.4.
- Wake Forest at SMU: Not an upset of Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are a slight road favorite, and the sims agree hard. Wake Forest wins 81.2% of runs, 40.9 to 30.0.
For every game on the Week 11 slate, check out the full college football predictions board. Detailed projected player stats for all games are available exclusively to GameSim+ subscribers. Learn more and subscribe here.
