The AFC West spent a decade as Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s personal property. That ended in 2025. Denver went 14-3, won the division at 5-1, earned the AFC’s top seed, and reached the conference championship game. Los Angeles went 11-6 and also went 5-1 inside the division. Kansas City went 6-11, missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014, and went 1-5 in the West. Las Vegas went 3-14 and scored 14.2 points per game. ESPN’s AFC West roundtable calls 2026-27 a three-team scramble at the top, with Kansas City listed as the betting favorite at +160 even after Denver ended the dynasty run.
This is part of GameSim’s 2026-27 NFL division preview series. Already posted:
- NFC East: Simulations Back Philadelphia as Clear Division Favorite
- NFC North: Simulations Back Detroit as Clear Division Favorite
- NFC South: Simulations Split Tampa Bay and Atlanta
- NFC West: Simulations Split the Rams and Seahawks
- AFC East: Simulations Favor New England in Both Bills Games
- AFC North: Simulations Split Baltimore and Cincinnati
- AFC South: Simulations Back Houston as Division Favorite
VSiN’s division preview treats the West as a tight three-horse race: Kansas City at +160, Los Angeles at +190, Denver at +225, with Las Vegas in rebuild mode under Klint Kubiak and Fernando Mendoza. Our 2026-27 division sims agree on the three-team fight. They do not crown a runaway favorite. Kansas City wins 17 of 25 (68 percent) against Denver at Arrowhead in Week 1 and 18 of 25 (72 percent) against the Chargers at home in Week 6. Denver wins 14 of 25 (56 percent) against Kansas City at Mile High in Week 8. Los Angeles wins 15 of 25 (60 percent) against Denver in Week 5 and 15 of 25 (60 percent) against Kansas City in Week 17. Home field still runs this division.
What 2025 actually looked like
Denver went 14-3 and 5-1 in the AFC West. Los Angeles went 11-6 and 5-1. Kansas City went 6-11 and 1-5. Las Vegas went 3-14 and 1-5. The Broncos ranked seventh nationally at 23.6 points per game and 18.3 allowed. Kansas City ranked twelfth despite the losing record because the point profile (21.3 scored, 19.3 allowed) was still middle-of-the-pack. Los Angeles ranked fourteenth. Las Vegas ranked thirtieth and scored 14.2 points per game, the worst offensive number in the division by a wide margin.
| Team | Record | AFC West | GameSim rank | Adj. offense (PPG) | Adj. defense (PAPG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 14-3 | 5-1 | 7 | 23.6 | 18.3 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 11-6 | 5-1 | 14 | 21.6 | 20.0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-11 | 1-5 | 12 | 21.3 | 19.3 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3-14 | 1-5 | 30 | 14.2 | 25.4 |
Read the table the way the engine does. Denver and Los Angeles both went 5-1 in the division. The Broncos won the title with the better overall record and the best defensive profile at 18.3 points allowed per game. Kansas City’s 6-11 record hides a twelfth-ranked efficiency profile, which is why the external previews still treat the Chiefs as contenders. Las Vegas ranked thirtieth with a 25.4 points-allowed number and an offense that scored 14.2 per game. VSiN and ESPN both call this a three-team race. The 2025 GameSim baseline agrees on Denver at the top and Las Vegas at the bottom.
The 2026-27 setup: Nix defending, Mahomes back, Herbert and McDaniel, Mendoza in Vegas
Live 2026-27 team rankings are not posted yet, so the 2025 computer is the baseline and the 2027 projected roster file is what the simulator uses until enough real games exist. VSiN and ESPN both orbit the same storylines: Bo Nix and Sean Payton defending the title, Patrick Mahomes returning from knee surgery with Kenneth Walker III in the backfield, Justin Herbert working with Mike McDaniel, and Mendoza’s rookie year in Las Vegas.
Projected pass leaders for 2026-27 in the division:
- Justin Herbert (Los Angeles): 3,859 yards, 26 TDs, 11 INTs
- Patrick Mahomes II (Kansas City): 3,832 yards, 26 TDs, 11 INTs
- Bo Nix (Denver): 3,745 yards, 26 TDs, 11 INTs
- Fernando Mendoza (Las Vegas): 2,888 yards, 16 TDs, 12 INTs
Projected rush leaders:
- Kenneth Walker III (Kansas City): 1,168 yards, 8 TDs
- Omarion Hampton (Los Angeles): 1,076 yards, 10 TDs
- J.K. Dobbins (Denver): 1,060 yards, 6 TDs
- Ashton Jeanty (Las Vegas): 1,090 yards, 8 TDs
Projected receiving headliners: Rashee Rice (1,099 yards), Brock Bowers (1,024), Ladd McConkey (977), Jaylen Waddle (960). Herbert, Mahomes, and Nix are essentially tied on passing volume. Walker on the Kansas City file is the post-Mahomes-injury flashpoint the previews keep circling. Waddle gives Denver the vertical element Payton wanted. Bowers keeps Las Vegas from being completely empty on the roster file even at 2,888 passing yards for Mendoza.
The title contenders
Denver Broncos: the defending champ who still has to win at Arrowhead
Denver went 14-3, ranked seventh nationally, and allowed 18.3 points per game, the best defensive number in the division. Nix projects 3,745 yards with Waddle at 960 receiving yards and Dobbins at 1,060 rushing yards. VSiN’s +225 line treats the Broncos as the third betting choice despite winning the division. Our 2026-27 sims give Denver a strong home profile: 14 of 25 (56 percent) against Kansas City in Week 8, 23 of 25 (92 percent) against Las Vegas in Week 11, and a 13-of-25 (52 percent) coin flip against the Chargers in Week 18. The road is where the title defense gets tested. Denver loses 17 of 25 (68 percent) at Kansas City in Week 1 and 15 of 25 (60 percent) at Los Angeles in Week 5.
Kansas City Chiefs: the betting favorite the sims trust at home
Kansas City went 6-11 and 1-5 in the division but ranked twelfth nationally on point differential. Mahomes projects 3,832 yards with Rice at 1,099 receiving yards and Walker at 1,168 rushing yards. ESPN’s +160 line and VSiN both treat the Chiefs as the team most likely to reclaim the West. Our sims treat Arrowhead like a different stadium: 17 of 25 (68 percent) against Denver in Week 1, 18 of 25 (72 percent) against the Chargers in Week 6, 17 of 25 (68 percent) against Las Vegas in Week 18. Mahomes on the road is shakier in our sample. Mahomes at home still moves the division.
Los Angeles Chargers: Herbert and McDaniel in the middle of the three-team fight
Los Angeles went 11-6, matched Denver at 5-1 in the division, and projects 3,859 yards from Herbert with McConkey at 977 receiving yards and Hampton at 1,076 rushing yards. VSiN’s +190 line treats the Chargers as the second betting choice in a tight race. Our sims give Los Angeles real home leverage: 15 of 25 (60 percent) against Denver in Week 5, 15 of 25 (60 percent) against Kansas City in Week 17, 23 of 25 (92 percent) against Las Vegas in Week 2. The road split against Denver in Week 18 is a coin flip. Herbert at SoFi against Nix and Mahomes is where the West might be decided.
Las Vegas Raiders: last on the board, capable of a home upset
Las Vegas went 3-14, ranked thirtieth nationally, and scored 14.2 points per game. Mendoza’s 2,888-yard projection and Bowers’ 1,024 receiving yards are the counterargument on the roster file. VSiN and ESPN both treat the Raiders as a rebuild with the No. 1 pick under center. Our sims give Las Vegas one home upset path: 13 of 25 (52 percent) against the Chargers in Week 14. Everything else is basement football. Las Vegas is not winning the division on efficiency. It can still complicate the wild-card picture if the top three stumble.
The games that will decide the division
Featured division games are 25 simulations with 2027 projected rosters and home-field advantage. Treat the percentages as a directional read. Open the prediction page or rerun at 100 simulations for a tighter number.
Sept. 14: Denver at Kansas City (Week 1)
Twenty-five simulations have Kansas City 29.1-20.8, winning 17 of 25 (68 percent) at home. The division opener and the first head-to-head lean on the board. Nix on the road against Mahomes at Arrowhead is the game ESPN already circled as the season’s opening statement. Our board likes the betting favorite at home.
Sept. 20: Las Vegas at Los Angeles (Week 2)
Twenty-five simulations have Los Angeles 32.8-16.8, winning 23 of 25 (92 percent) at home. Herbert and Hampton at SoFi against Mendoza is one of the most lopsided numbers on the slate. The Raiders ranked thirtieth nationally last year. Our board agrees.
Oct. 4: Kansas City at Las Vegas (Week 4)
Twenty-five simulations have Kansas City 25.7-21.9, winning 18 of 25 (72 percent) on the road. Mahomes in Vegas against Mendoza is one of the spots where our board gives the Chiefs a clear road favorite lean.
Oct. 11: Denver at Los Angeles (Week 5)
Twenty-five simulations have Los Angeles 27.9-24.4, winning 15 of 25 (60 percent) at home. Herbert at SoFi against Nix on the road in a potential tiebreaker game. Our board likes the Chargers at home.
Oct. 18: Los Angeles at Kansas City (Week 6)
Twenty-five simulations have Kansas City 28.9-23.8, winning 18 of 25 (72 percent) at home. Mahomes and Walker at Arrowhead against Herbert is another spot where our board gives the Chiefs a clear home favorite number.
Nov. 1: Kansas City at Denver (Week 8)
Twenty-five simulations have Denver 29.5-26.0, winning 14 of 25 (56 percent) at home. The second Chiefs-Broncos meeting and a potential division pivot. Nix and Payton at Mile High against Mahomes on the road. Our board flips to the defending champ at home.
Nov. 22: Las Vegas at Denver (Week 11)
Twenty-five simulations have Denver 28.4-15.3, winning 23 of 25 (92 percent) at home. The most lopsided Denver number on the slate. Nix at home against a team that scored 14.2 points per game last year.
Dec. 13: Los Angeles at Las Vegas (Week 14)
Twenty-five simulations have Las Vegas 27.4-25.6, winning 13 of 25 (52 percent) at home. A coin flip upset lean for the Raiders at Allegiant. The kind of game that does not change the division race but can matter for seeding.
Dec. 20: Denver at Las Vegas (Week 15)
Twenty-five simulations have Denver 28.0-20.6, winning 19 of 25 (76 percent) on the road. Nix on the road against Mendoza is one of the spots where our board gives the Broncos a clear favorite number even away from Mile High.
Jan. 3: Kansas City at Los Angeles (Week 17)
Twenty-five simulations have Los Angeles 28.4-25.5, winning 15 of 25 (60 percent) at home. Herbert at SoFi against Mahomes in a potential seeding game. Our board likes the Chargers at home in the second Chiefs meeting.
Jan. 10: Los Angeles at Denver (Week 18)
Twenty-five simulations have Denver 26.7-25.3, winning 13 of 25 (52 percent) at home. A coin flip to close the regular season between two teams that both went 5-1 in the division last year. Perfect for a three-team race.
Jan. 10: Las Vegas at Kansas City (Week 18)
Twenty-five simulations have Kansas City 28.6-19.2, winning 17 of 25 (68 percent) at home. Mahomes at Arrowhead to close the regular season against Mendoza. Our board likes the Chiefs to finish strong at home.
How to use GameSim on this season
Start with the NFL teams directory, then use each team page for predictions and ratings. The rankings will fill in once the season has enough games. For any Sunday, the predictions board updates as we run the slate.
To test Nix versus Mahomes in Denver and Kansas City, Herbert versus Nix at SoFi, or the Chiefs’ home slate against Denver and Los Angeles, open the NFL game simulator and set both years to 2027.
Try the 2026-27 season yourself. Any registered MyGameSim user can simulate NFL matchups now. Free accounts get up to 3 current-season sims per day. Register free or log in. GameSim+ subscribers get unlimited simulations.
Detailed projected player stats stay behind GameSim+. Developers can hit the same engine through the GameSim API.
Our working read: Denver is the defending division champion on the 2025 standings with the best defensive profile in the West. Kansas City is the betting favorite despite going 6-11 last year, and our sims trust the Chiefs at Arrowhead in both meetings with Denver and Los Angeles at home. The Chargers went 5-1 in the division and win 60 percent home samples against Denver and Kansas City. Las Vegas ranked thirtieth nationally and is not in the title picture on efficiency. In a division the previews call the tightest in the AFC, the computer agrees on the three-team fight and disagrees on a clear favorite: home field still runs the AFC West.
