The tradition with Tom O'Brien is to win eight or nine games and go to a decent bowl. And last season was the another case of that. That was an impressive feat considering there were only four starters back on offense last year. NC State was helped by having most of the defense back, and it was a sacking and turnover machine, and those opportunities really helped the offense.
Offense
Replacing Russell Wilson was no easy task, but Mike Glennon filled in admirably, and was a very efficient passer, completing 62.5% of his passes for 3054 yards, with 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The high completion percentage was something that hadn't been done since the days Philip Rivers was under center in the early 2000's. He was sacked quite a bit last year, and still found a way to complete that high percentage of passes. If the offensive line improves, and he keeps improving as well, I don't think 65% is out of the question.
The running backs were not great at running the football, but they were really good at catching the football. James Washington led the team in rushing yard with 897 and led with seven touchdowns. His backup, Tony Creecy, put up 382. The two combined to average 3.8 yards per carry last year. Washington ended up being third on the team with 42 receptions. Creecy caught 25 passes as well. I don't know if they'll repeat those numbers this year unless the offensive line doesn't improve. Then Glennon might use them again to catch some quick dump off passes. Look for 250 pound fullback Logan Winkles to pave the way when they do run the ball.
There will be some turnover in the receiving corps this season. It does return Tobais Palmer, but not much else. Palmer was second on the team in yards with 496, but his 37 catches were fourth on the team. Outside, Quintin Payton will take over. He caught seven passes for 107 yards last season. When the Wolfpack go to three receiver sets, Bryan Underwood will be in. He did catch 16 passes last year. At tight end, Mario Carter will be the new starter. He only caught nine passes last year, but Glennon likes to throw to the tight end, so Carter could have a nice season.
Where the Wolfpack needs to improve the most is on the line. The running game only averaged 3.0 yards per carry, and allowed the quarterback to get sacked 34 times, which was an improvement over 2010, when quarterbacks were sacked 39 times. Most of the line is back, but there are some tweaks. For example, R.J. Mattes will move from tackle to guard, and Andrew Wallace will move from guard to tackle. Other than that, the rest remains the same. Camden Wentz returns at center, Zach Allen will join Mattes at guard, and Rob Crisp will join Wallace at tackle. If this line can improve, the offense will be a lot better this year.
Defense
This was a very opportune defense. And you can look at the turnover margin and tell that. The team had a +14 turnover margin last year, and +21 over the last two years. Having a defense that sacked quarterbacks 38 times last year, and 80 times over the last two years. But don't be surprised if there is a drop off this year, as four of the top seven tacklers are gone, including three of its top five sackers last year. Brian Slay and Darryl Cato-Bishop are the ends. Slay had three sacks and five tackles for loss last year. Cato-Bishop had five sacks in a backup role, and will get more of a chance to play. In the middle, Thomas Teal and T.Y. Mcgill. Both are sophomore who saw a decent amount of playing time last year, and will have to step up some more again this year.
Losing Audie Cole and Terrell Manning are big losses for the defense. Both were high number tacklers, and got to the quarterback regularly. There is little experience in the linebackers, and the success of the defense may ride on how quickly this group can adjust. Ricky Dowdy is a junior who has played in two games his entire career. Sterling Lucas is a senior who has started twice in his career, in missed last season due to injury. Rodman Noel played exclusively on special teams last year. See what I mean? This group is going to have to grow up in a hurry.
Not all of the news is bad for the NC State defense. The entire secondary is back this year, and this is one of the best in the conference, if not the country. And having David Amerson back is a huge difference. It wasn't the 59 tackles or the five pass break ups that stood out. It was the 13 interceptions, which was an ACC record. It also helped him garner first team All American honors as well. This might be the year teams start throwing at C.J.Wilson. His number are far less impressive than Amerson's. He only had 31 tackles and one interception. The safeties, on the other hand, are the two leading returning tacklers on the team. Earl Wolff was a tackling machine, finishing with 113 tackles and three interceptions, and Brandon Bishop had 99 tackles and five interceptions. If they keep up these kind of numbers, watch out.
Special Teams
This was not a great strength for NC State last season. Niklas Sade was 11-16 on field goals, but was 2-6 from beyond 40 yards. He missed two of his 48 extra points as well. Wil Baumann started as a freshman and averaged 37.5 yards per punt. That's not great, but I think it will improve this year. The return game will be a little different this year with the departure of T.J. Graham. Tobais Palmer will handle kick returns, and Rashard Smith will handle punt returns.
Fun Fact
If there's one thing Tom O'Brien is consistent at while coaching NC State, it's beating the rival. O'Brien is 5-0 against North Carolina during his tenure, including last year's 13-0 shutout.
Will's Prediction
There is no doubt that NC State will be tested right away when they take on Tennessee in their opening game in Atlanta. After that, the Wolfpack should win the next three before heading in to conference play. And the conference schedule works out for them really well. They get Florida State at home, and don't play Virginia Tech this year. They do get to go to UNC this year in an attempt to make it six in a row for Tom O'Brien. They also get Clemson on the road near the end of the year. The offense will be strong this year, but I do think the defense will take a step back again. I don't think David Amerson will intercept 13 passes again this year, but he could get six, and that would still be a strong year. The secondary may have to carry things for a while. With all of that said, NC State will win eight or nine games again this year, and get to another bowl.
Twitter: @WillsWorldMN
