So, NC State couldn't pull off the upset against North Carolina. That puts them on the wrong side of the bubble, needing to win its next three games and then a few more in the ACC tournament to feel good about its chances.
Miami finds itself in similar bubble territory, after losing a game against Maryland in which the Canes seemingly had won.
But with a full three days until the NC State's next game, what is a die-hard, over-obsessive fan to do? Over analyze the bubble, of course! So here it is, everything you ever wanted to know about who to root for - and against - over the next 19 days.
Teams to Root For - The Small Conference Party Crashers
Teams that will steal at-large bids if they don’t win their conference tournaments.
Murray State, Ohio Valley
Harvard, Ivy(no tournament so needs to win regular season title)
Long Beach State, Big West
Gonzaga or St. Mary’s, West Coast
Temple or St. Louis, Atlantic 10
Southern Miss or Memphis, Conference USA
Wichita State or Creighton, Missouri Valley
And, just to be safe, a few teams that would join the bubble discussion if they lost…
Middle Tennessee State, Sun Belt
Iona, MAAC
Oral Roberts,Summit
Teams to Root For - The Fringe RPI Threshold Teams
The NCAA selection committee uses something called the Nitty Gritty Report, it’s something of a quick glance evaluation of teams. The last four columns of this report, which you can see here - deal with record against certain categories of the RPI. Specifically it divides it up into 1-50, 50-100 and 100-200 along with a cumulative 1-100 column.
The Pack has played several teams that are on the cusp of either dropping out of or into one of these categories. A good stretch run by these teams could give the Pack some padding on those metrics, which would help their overall profile.
Maryland –93rd currently
Princeton –99th
Virginia Tech – 102nd
Stanford –104th
St.Bonaventure – 110th
Northeastern– 192nd
Delaware State – 211th
Teams to Root Against - Everyone Else on the Bubble
It’s a long list, so not everyone can suck on this list, but it’s nice if you can out-play the majority of these teams down the stretch run.
Washington
Arizona
BYU
Xavier
Cincinnati
UConn
Northwestern
Seton Hall
UCF
South Florida
Oregon
Colorado State
Saint Joseph's
VCU
Minnesota
The Special Cases - Miami and Texas
Miami and Texas are fellow bubble teams that the Pack currently has wins against. In addition, they are both on the fringe of the top 50 in the RPI. So while them winning would help the Pack's resume, it would also put two more teams in front of them in the bubble pecking order.
The question becomes what's worse - having zero top 50 wins or having two fewer teams to go against on the bubble. I think at the end of the day it doesn't matter to NC State what either of these teams do. The only requirement for the Pack is actually beating Miami in their remaining head-to-head match-up.
