As before, if a team beats Duke subtract 1 necessary conference win, because a win over Duke will give a team a huge boost.
I'm using realtimerpi.com to get my RPI rankings.
Should Get In - UNC, Boston College
Bubble But In - Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech
Bubble But Out - Virginia, Maryland
A Chance, but not much - Clemson, NC State
Start Recruiting for 2011 - Wake Forest Georgia Tech
Boston College 10-2 (1-0) Current RPI: 21
Boston College is looking real good. In fact only Duke and maybe UNC are in better shape going into the conference games. They gave Texas A&M their only loss, and have beat California and Providence as well. They even have road win at Maryland. The Eagles can even slip to 8-8 in the ACC and make it to the Big Dance. As apparently the ACC's second or third best team, they'll be several games better than that.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 8-8
Chances of Making NCAAs? 90%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 21-9 (10-6)
NC State Wolfpack 7-4 (0-0) Current RPI: 70
With the ACC down especially at the bottom of the league, the Wolfpack are going to teeter on and off the bubble all year. There aren't any ugly losses, but little in the way of quality wins. A win against George Mason wasn't bad though. The Pack are in a weird position. They can 9-7 in the ACC, and miss the NCAAs, because they fed on the bottom of the ACC, or they can go 9-7 and be in much better positions with wins over BC, UNC, and FSU. This is a make or break year for Sidney Lowe.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 9-7
Chances of Makings NCAAs? 40%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 16-14 (6-10)
Florida State Seminoles 11-3 (1-0) RPI: 84
The Noles don't have a loss outside the RPI top 30. I don't see the teams that beat FSU Ohio St., Florida, or Butler falling outside the top 50 either. Florida State's best win is over a fading Baylor team, but FSU doesn't need to roll through the ACC. A 9-10 win conference season should be able to get them in. They'll be smack on the bubble if they finish 8-8.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 8-8
Chances of Makings NCAAs? 70%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 20-10 (9-7)
Maryland Terrapins 8-4 (0-1) RPI: 116
Maryland has won at Penn St., and that's it. The early ACC loss at home against Boston College doesn't help either. Villanova on January 15th provides an opportunity for a big OOC win. I don't like the Terps position. They have to finish the ACC at 9-7 to get on the bubble.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 9-7 Chances of Making NCAAs? 45%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 19-12 (8-8)
Clemson Tigers 9-4 (0-1) RPI: 148
Clemson's record isn't bad, but they haven't beat any team of note, not a single one. Even Georgia Tech and Wake Forest have a top 100 win. The Tigers have no margin error. With already one ACC loss, they are in a hole. 8 or 9 ACC wins and the Tigers can forget it. I don't think they score enough to really make a run at the needed 10 wins.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 10-6
Chances of Making NCAAs? 20%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 16-14 (5-11)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) RPI: 286
Researching this article, when I saw Wake Forest's RPI I though it was a misprint. I've never seen an ACC team with an RPI worse than the 180s or 190s. Wake Forest has one win (Hampton) over a top 100 team, and three losses outside the top one hundred. Even 11 ACC wins may not get the Deacs into top 80 of the RPI. Coach Dino Gaudio and Wake Forest needs a miracle to make the NCAAs.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 11-5
Chances of Making NCAAs? .5%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-22 (2-14)
