This has been one of the more disappointing starts to a college basketball season I've ever seen in the ACC. Typically the ACC will enter the new year with as many as 8-9 teams looking like possible NCAA teams. This year there maybe 4-5 possible teams. With the conference schedule about to get going in earnest what will each ACC team have to do to realistically have a shot at the NCAA tournament, minus an ACC tournament title.
We'll start with the 6 teams in the Coastal Division and move to the Atlantic teams in Part 2.
If a team beats Duke subtract 1 necessary conference win, because a win over Duke will give a team a huge boost.
I'm using realtimerpi.com to get my RPI rankings.
Duke Blue Devils 11-0 (0-0) Current RPI: 4
As long as the Duke Blue Devils field a team they will make the NCAAs. They already possess OOC wins over Michigan St., Butler, and Kansas St. They could probably lose 9 ACC conference games and still make it. No worries here.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 7-9
Chances of Making NCAAs? 99.9%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 30-1 (15-1)
North Carolina Tar Heels 8-4 (0-0) Current RPI: 25
The Tar Heels don't have any bad losses, and have an OOC win over Kentucky. I think the Heels are in pretty good shape provided they don't go under .500 in the ACC during the year. That won't happen. 9-7 in the ACC would probably put them on the bubble but in. 8-8 would be trickier.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 8-8
Chances of Makings NCAAs? 90%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 20-10 (10-6)
Virginia Cavaliers 8-4 (1-0) RPI: 113
Virginia was moving right along. They had a road win at 11-1 Minnesota and at Virginia Tech. Then there was a disastrous loss at 5-10 Seattle. Seattle may finish the year in the 300s in RPI. Virginia will be fighting their low starting RPI all season.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 9-7
Chances of Makings NCAAs? 30%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 18-12 (8-8)
Miami Hurricanes 10-3 (0-0) RPI: 20
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 8-8
Chances of Making NCAAs? 70%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 21-10 (9-7)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 6-5 (0-0) RPI: 146
If Georgia Tech wants to make the NCAAs they should fire Paul Hewitt. Just kidding, well not really he's terrible. The Jackets do have two pretty good OOC wins over UTEP and Richmond. Unfortunately a horrid loss to Kennesaw St negates both wins. The Jackets would need at least 10 ACC wins to even get in the NCAA tournament conversation, and I still don't think that would be enough. Georgia Tech has never won more than 9 ACC games under Hewitt.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 11-5
Chances of Making NCAAs? 1%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 13-17 (4-12)
Virginia Tech Hokies 7-4 (0-1) RPI: 40
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 9-7
Chances of Making NCAAs? 50%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 20-9 (10-6)
We'll start with the 6 teams in the Coastal Division and move to the Atlantic teams in Part 2.
If a team beats Duke subtract 1 necessary conference win, because a win over Duke will give a team a huge boost.
I'm using realtimerpi.com to get my RPI rankings.
Duke Blue Devils 11-0 (0-0) Current RPI: 4
As long as the Duke Blue Devils field a team they will make the NCAAs. They already possess OOC wins over Michigan St., Butler, and Kansas St. They could probably lose 9 ACC conference games and still make it. No worries here.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 7-9
Chances of Making NCAAs? 99.9%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 30-1 (15-1)
North Carolina Tar Heels 8-4 (0-0) Current RPI: 25
The Tar Heels don't have any bad losses, and have an OOC win over Kentucky. I think the Heels are in pretty good shape provided they don't go under .500 in the ACC during the year. That won't happen. 9-7 in the ACC would probably put them on the bubble but in. 8-8 would be trickier.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 8-8
Chances of Makings NCAAs? 90%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 20-10 (10-6)
Virginia Cavaliers 8-4 (1-0) RPI: 113
Virginia was moving right along. They had a road win at 11-1 Minnesota and at Virginia Tech. Then there was a disastrous loss at 5-10 Seattle. Seattle may finish the year in the 300s in RPI. Virginia will be fighting their low starting RPI all season.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 9-7
Chances of Makings NCAAs? 30%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 18-12 (8-8)
Miami Hurricanes 10-3 (0-0) RPI: 20
Quietly Miami had put together a very solid resume during the pre-conference schedule. There are wins over Mississippi and a great looking win over West Virginia. There aren't any bad losses.
I don't think any ACC team will feel safe going 8-8 in conference other than Duke, but Miami should be in good shape with a 9-7 conference record.
I don't think any ACC team will feel safe going 8-8 in conference other than Duke, but Miami should be in good shape with a 9-7 conference record.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 8-8
Chances of Making NCAAs? 70%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 21-10 (9-7)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 6-5 (0-0) RPI: 146
If Georgia Tech wants to make the NCAAs they should fire Paul Hewitt. Just kidding, well not really he's terrible. The Jackets do have two pretty good OOC wins over UTEP and Richmond. Unfortunately a horrid loss to Kennesaw St negates both wins. The Jackets would need at least 10 ACC wins to even get in the NCAA tournament conversation, and I still don't think that would be enough. Georgia Tech has never won more than 9 ACC games under Hewitt.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 11-5
Chances of Making NCAAs? 1%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 13-17 (4-12)
Virginia Tech Hokies 7-4 (0-1) RPI: 40
The Hokies are forever a bubble team, and they didn't help themselves with an ACC season opening loss to Virginia.
I still believe in this team's guard play, and they do have nice OOC win over Oklahoma St. 10 Conference wins "should" get them in, but it didn't last year. The Hokies will be sweating come selection Sunday if they are at 9-7 in conference. 8-8 is out.
I still believe in this team's guard play, and they do have nice OOC win over Oklahoma St. 10 Conference wins "should" get them in, but it didn't last year. The Hokies will be sweating come selection Sunday if they are at 9-7 in conference. 8-8 is out.
Minimum ACC Record Required for NCAA Bubble: 9-7
Chances of Making NCAAs? 50%
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 20-9 (10-6)
