Jon Pence over at www.scacchoops.com has done an incredible job dissecting the play on the court of the ACC and by promoting all the great blogs and bloggers from all over the conference. Here’s a little Q&A I did with him today on what tempo-based stats are and how his Fantasy Acc Basketball League works. There is still time to sign up and join the over 100 leagues already playing. You can always see his box scores at the bottom of our end-game wrap-ups and check out his site for updates on all 12 ACC athletics programs.
First of all, where did you get the idea for the site?
The site started as strictly a ACC Fantasy basketball site to manage a fantasy league that some friends and I had put together. After a year or two I realized I was collecting a lot of data from college basketball games and I became curious how I could use the data.
I know you’re a web designer, but have you always had an interest in college basketball?
Without a doubt, I was born in Kentucky as a UK fan, but my dad’s job moved him here right after UNC won the championship in 82. The next season NC State won in 83, and Duke basketball started a string of excellence shortly after that. As a kid, how could you not fall in love with college basketball during that time?
Where did the immersion in the stats side of the sport come from?
As you mentioned I’m a web developer, but actually have a Mathematical Sciences degree. I’ve always loved picking apart numbers and finding meaning in things that aren’t always evident as seen with the eye. I’d be remiss not to mention Ken Pomeroy’s work (http://www.kenpom.com) and the impression it had on me. Ken’s site brought the tempo-based stats to my attention, and I’ve taken it the next step into live stats.
What is the difference between tempo-free stats and tempo-based?
No difference.
Can you explain, in layman’s terms, what the algorithm is and how it works?
The idea is simple, how many points does a team average per possession? For the longest time, people looked at points per game to determine if a team had a good offense. The fact is the pace a team plays is a huge factor in the number of points they score. A good example is Boston College this season. BC averages the 2nd fewest possessions per game (62.9) in the ACC, but actually has the 2nd highest offensive efficiency (points/possessions * 100 = 116.1). Duke’s offensive efficiency is first at 119.3. (as of 12/11 prior to the Saint Louis game).
The inverse can be equally interesting as well, how many points a team gives up per defensive possession? This is called defensive efficiency. Currently FSU leads the ACC in defensive efficiency at 77, or .77 points per defensive possession.
When you factor in the points a team scores per possession and the points they give up per possession you can get a quick idea how two teams will matchup even if they play two completely different tempos.
You can see these tempo-based stats and others for ACC Teams here: http://www.scacchoops.com/TeamStats.asp
What exactly defines a possession?
Essentially a possession is when a team has the ball and then gives it up. In terms of stats I used a calculation that has been fairly common across the tempo-based stats community…
# of Possessions =Made Shots – Offensive Rebs + Turnovers + (.4 * Free Throw Attempts)
How do free throws impact efficiency?
Not any different than field goals, a possession that ends in 2 made free throws is equivalent to one that ends with a 2 point shot. In both cases they are a 2 point possession.
Say a team gets fouled shooting a three-pointer. They make two of those free throws and then get the rebound and hit a three-pointer. Does this mean that team got 5 points on that possession or 2 points on one possession and then three on the next?
If you notice, we subtract out offensive rebounds when we count possessions, this is for the exact reason you mentioned. The scenario you play out would be one 5 point possession.
Tell me more about your fantasy basketball league. I’m in one with other acc basketball bloggers, should be fun this year. It’s only based on league games, but how are the points calculated? Is it weighted heavier towards points, rebounds, or assists?
The fantasy game is just like any other fantasy sports, it just involves ACC basketball players. As you mentioned, we use the structure of the 16 game conference season to make our game a little more like fantasy football. As for the fantasy point calculation, it really depends on how the league would like to customize scoring. The ACC Blogger league uses the default setup of points + assists + rebounds + steals + blocks – turnovers – ejections.
How many people do you have playing? How are the positions broken down? How many teams per league,etc.
There were over 100 leagues created this season and each league could have between 4 and 12 teams. Positions assignments are somewhat subjective since teams use different ways of listing their own players. As such, a panel of people assigned the position and salary cap value (for salary cap leagues).
Can people still join?
Absolutely, since conference play has started only one thing changes. When you draft a player that has played a game, you are “drafting points”. In other words, since Mike Scott had such a great game against Virginia Tech in the conference schedule opener, drafting him would get you quite a few fantasy points for his first game, even though the game has already been played.
