This article will mark the first of several looks into the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. The first part will involve some good news & bad news analysis, the 2nd will (hopefully) give us a look at the game from the Wolfpack side of things, and the 3rd will be an on field position by position breakdown of the match-up (once practice injuries heal/occur) after the line-ups come more into focus.
Good News:
Nevada Is a Running Team
When you think of the Wolfpack and (in particular) senior quarterback Colin Kaepernick you think of their pistol offense and you think passing. This actually couldn't be further from the truth. The first stated goal of this team is to run the ball using Kaepernick and senior running back Vai Taua. Why is this good news? Boston College possesses the #1 rushing defense in the country. Read that sentence again. Surrendering just under 90 yards per game on the ground, the Eagles theoretically have the horses to slow this attack down. Nevada does average over 300 yards a game on the ground (5th in the nation), so 90 yards is probably unreasonable. But, if they can limit big plays and keep them around 200, they should be in good shape. Assuming Nevada doesn't completely abandon their game plan, you can expect this to be a very physical, smash mouth football game. Leading tackler Luke Kuechly and fellow linebacker Mark Herzlich would love nothing better.
BC Has a Major Size Advantage In The Trenches
One of the things BC prides it self on is it's ability to use it's NFL sized offensive line to wear down opposing defenses over the course of 4 quarters. Over the past several weeks of the season, that tactic was used with great effectiveness as they effectively sucked the life out of Syracuse and Virginia. Nevada's defensive line isn't necessarily what I would consider undersized, but they're not nearly as big as what BC has been playing against in recent weeks. This is something that head coach Frank Spaziani and offensive coordinator Gary Tranquill will surely be aware of. They'll do everything they can to shorten the game and limit Nevada's offensive possessions by utilizing a bruising running attack behind that enormous offensive line led by all-ACC left tackle Anthony Castonzo.
Nevada Is 106th Out Of 120 FBS Teams Against The Pass
This is kind goes together with the size advantage. Most teams have struggled to contain the run against Boston College, but the trade-off has been that they have been able to limit the occasional attempts of true freshman Chase Rettig to beat teams down the field with his arm. This Nevada team doesn't look to have that ability. If Nevada is unable to contain the bruising Andre Williams or the shifty Montel Harris (or both! yikes!) with their base defense, they will be forced to bring their safeties up to support. This could expose their corners to single coverage against our talented, but young receivers. True freshman Bobby Swigert in particular has shown a knack for getting open against man coverage. This game might present the opportunity for Chase Rettig to show off that howitzer he has for an arm and challenge this team down the field to further set up the run.
Bad News:
Nevada Isn't JUST a Running Team Anymore
In the past when Kaepernick was still an underclassman, he struggled with his accuracy and his throwing motion, not unlike many dual threat quarterbacks (which is often, read: always, a euphemism for a guy who can't throw the ball). Kaepernick though, has greatly improved his accuracy over the past 2 seasons and is much more of a threat to throw the ball than at any other point in his college career. His ability to move the ball through the air against Boise State demonstrated how far he's come as a passer. The reason this is bad news is because of the infamous Frank Spaziani cushion. It's an absolutely maddening tactic for fans because it allows teams to move the ball through the air between the 20's before tightening in the red zone. The goal of the tactic is to force prolonged drives which will (hopefully) lead to mistakes. The downside, is that patient quarterbacks who are willing to take the short and medium throws can cut it to ribbons (see: North Carolina St). If Kaepernick is on his game, he can make this a long evening for the BC secondary.
The Eagles Have Struggled Mightily With Mobile QB's
While the rushing numbers don't necessarily paint the picture, mobile quarterbacks have absolutely killed Boston College this season, and in years past. Against 2 QB's similar to Colin Kaepernick (Russell Wilson & Tyrod Taylor), the Eagles allowed over 600 yards through the air and 85 net yards on the ground (not accounting for sacks). The rushing yardage of those QB's doesn't indicate how dangerous they were. During those games, the ability of both QB's to avoid the rush, not take sacks, and create space & time to throw was what killed the Eagles in both games. What makes this particular situation even more dangerous is the size of Kaepernick. At 6'6 and over 220 pounds he more resembles a player like Auburn's Cam Newton or Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor, though not quite as broad as those two. If Boston College is to succeed in this game, it will need to be able to wrestle Kaepernick to the ground (particularly on broken plays). If he's allowed to break tackles and keep drives alive on 3rd down by scrambling, the BC defense will be on defense for a very long time. Which leads us to...
Boston College Struggles On 3rd Down...Mightily
Frank Spaziani and defensive coordinator Bill McGovern's defense allows opponents to convert 3rd downs at an absurd 41%. The reason for the teams struggles on 3rd down goes back to the aforementioned cushion that the BC secondary will allow opposing receivers...even on 3rd down. In order to limit the Wolpack and their time with the football, the defense must be able to hold on 3rd down. The more time the defense is on the field, the more this potent offense will find ways to score points, particularly through the air. Without advocating for full man to man press coverage (BC doesn't have the athletes on the corners for that), they should still be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage on anything less than 3rd and 8. The goal here would be to force Kaepernick to throw into tighter windows in pressure situations. You have a better chance of disrupting the offense playing this way.
