We stand on the precipice of The Game.
UNC football and NC State football have been linked together, not just by their mutual disdain for each other, but also by both programs inexorable mediocrity. Since the formation of the ACC, the record stands at 32 wins for UNC, 25 for State. The rivalry has been characterized both for its streaks and for its complete and utter pointlessness. State holds a lead in ACC titles, but that lead is 7 to 5.
Whereas the Carolina and State basketball game for decades represented the best two basketball teams in the conference meeting, the football game was for decades a battle for who would get to proudly yell “WE'RE NUMBER 5!” While Clemson, Maryland, and if you go back far enough, Duke, used to win ACC football titles, State and Carolina would battle for no other reason than pure hatred of each other. The rise of the UVA football under Coach George Welsh and the ACC's expansion, first with Georgia Tech, then the mighty Seminoles, and culminating in the ACC's rape of the Big East six years ago only further marginalized the game's importance to anything. But the game has remained compelling because despite how unimportant the game almost always is, the hate never goes away.
And that is what State/UNC is really all about: hatred, in its purest, most unadulterated form. There has always been a big brother-little brother relationship between the two universities, with State backers chafing at UNC almost always being a little bit better, with UNC fans belittling them at every turn. It's bourgeois versus the working class. Left versus right. Free-formity versus uniformity. How else could people get geared up to go watch two teams play for nothing year after year?
The rivalry also has this bizarre anarchic quality to it, with both teams usually standing in the way of the other's attempts at success. It seems as soon as one program puts together a team good enough to have a contending season, it is always the other who beats them and ends these dreams of relevancy in football. Chuck Amato, despite taking NC State football to a level it had not been to since the Lou Holtz era, had a losing record against John Bunting, a well known idiot. Similarly, Butch Davis arrived in Chapel Hill with a lot of talk of a new super power in football, but NC State has stood in the door way each time. But this, the show is back on the other foot.
UNC suffered a loss against Virginia Tech Saturday in a game in which UNC started great and steadily regressed into a barely recognizable pile of garbage by game's end. The loss ended any chance, however remote it might have been going in, of winning the Coastal. State has seen how UNC plays when it's ACC title hopes end before, and the result has not been good for the Tar Heels. NC State still has a chance to play for the ACC title, and will just need to beat UNC and Maryland to punch their ticket.
Breakdown
UNC has been the amazing shrinking football team, due to the academic restrictions that aren't worth delving into...again....in this space. However, in addition to the unfortunateness, UNC has now begun to be bit by the injury bug, and at this writing I believe some random club football kid is going to be carrying the ball for UNC. TJ Yates has rebounded from a tremendously bad year last season to lead the offense to a season of surprisingly decent season.
Dwight Jones has been the revelation who has made everything go. Jones has made teams pay for stacking the box to stop the run with his ability to go deep. Jones exposed FSU's zone coverage as inadequate against FSU, and he could very well have a huge game against State's lack luster coverage. However, because of the myriad of injuries to their running backs, teams no longer have to stack to beat UNC's run game, as VTech showed. I think NC State handles the UNC offense, and puts a whupping on Yates.
On the other side of the ball, you've got Russell, and as bad as he's looked in a few spots this year, he has owned the Tar Heels. With the depleted Tar Heel secondary, you have to expect a big game for #16. UNC has had a rough year in the secondary because of all the issues, and this Wolfpack team isn't the one you want to play with 2nd and 3rd string DBs.
I would love to be able to post this preview and predict UNC, just to avoid jinxing State. But I cannot lie to you people, I think State wins by 2 scores.
State 38 UNC 24
