NC State's home stretch starts Saturday. Clemson has owned State since Tom O'Brien came to town, but the biggest reason for that ain't in town any more, and that's CJ Spiller. In his four years at Clemson, the talented and versatile Spiller averaged 6.4 yards a carry in four contests against State, and accounted for seven touchdowns. The Wolfpack coaching staff are breathing a sigh of relief over not seeing ole number 28 in the backfield for Saturday's ball game.
Obviously, a lot of comparisons have been drawn between Kyle Parker and Russell Wilson; two dual-sport athletes who are both in the Colorado Rockies minor league system. However, the comparisons pretty much end there. Parker is averaging only 178 passing yards a game and 6.06 yards an attempt, as compared to 295 per game and 7.15 yards an attempt from Russell Wilson. Both quarterbacks came back for another season to try to prove something on the football gridiron before embarking on baseball careers, and it is fairly obvious that Russell has outplayed his Rockies teammate in almost every category.
We can only hope their differences on the baseball diamond aren't as glaring.
Clemson Offense v. State Defense
The Clemson Offense, on a game by game basis, has not really missed Spiller too much, posting nearly identical passing/rushing/scoring stats this year as last year. However, it has been Spiller who has given the Wolfpack so many fits in the past, and his loss for the purposes of this game is incalculable. Many people were hoping for Parker to step up in the absence of Spiller, and his failure to do so, despite not being much worse from last year to this year, has caused quite a bit of consternation in Death Valley.
The match up to watch here is going to be Clemson's protection packages versus State's pass rush. Clemson has been the 11th best team in the country at protecting their quarterback, and State brings the nation's 12th best pass rush into the Howard's old stomping grounds. Clemson has only played one team with a strong pass rush this season, Miami, and we shall see if they can keep Jon Tenuta's fast charging linebackers off of Parker. I'm giving an ever so slight edge to State here.
Clemson Defense v. State Offense:
Clemson is giving up a lot of yards, but are managing to get away without giving up too many points. All non-flexbone teams are averaging 3.7 yards a carry on the Tigers defense, and likewise, all teams that at least try to throw the ball are averaging 203 yards a game throwing it. This is a solidly middle of the road defense that is living and dying by its pass rush - which while good, isn't quite as good as State's – and a lot of luck. I don't see that luck continuing to hold up against State.
The Pack are coming off a game in which they really emphasized the run against Florida State to great affect, giving their offense quite a deal more balance coming into Clemson than they had been showing previously. Offensive balance, as Bill Walsh said, isn't about a 50-50 even number of passes and runs, but rather about having the ability on any given play to run or pass with a high degree of success, and State has shown that capability, which only augments their passing game. I give the nod to State here in this category.
Special Teams:
Clemson has been great in the punting game this season, with great net punting totals to go with their stellar punt return numbers. State has been getting killed in the return game, as they are neither getting any kind of substantial returns AND they are letting anyone and everyone find a lane. This is the most glaring advantage for either team, and is definitely going to be what wins this game for Clemson if they leave the stadium with the W. The biggest check mark possible for the Tigers.
State's got a hard road to hoe to get to Charlotte, with three of their final four on the road. However, that road will get little bit easier to tread upon should State get the victory this week. The odds makers are making Clemson 3.5 point favorites, so maybe they know something I don't, but I think this is the season State gets the monkey off its back and wins the Textile Bowl (which I'm fairly sure EA Sports just cold made up, cause I've literally never heard this game called that, but whatever).
The Prediction:
State 38 Clemson 24
