Well people, we have gone talked, and talked, and talked, about this Florida State game ad nauseam. I promise this will be it, as we will break down the Noles for our matchup on Saturday.
Coaching Staff
It would seem that everybody we play this year has a new coach, but FSU’s coaching change is a little different. The administration had named Jimbo Fisher the “head-coach-in-waiting” upon Bobby Bowden’s retirement. As Jimbo’s contract was about to come up for renewal, low and behold, Bobby called it quits. Hmmmm, interesting. But operations haven’t skipped a beat for the Noles, as Jimbo brought in a ton of talent around him, most notably Mark Stoops from Arizona.
Offense
Their pro-style offense revolves around the quarterback, and Christian Ponder a good one. He’s been slowed a little lately by a tricep bruise, which could be a positive, because while he is a great drop back passer, he is very mobile and scrambles effectively, similar to Aaron Rodgers. But that is only one factor to be concerned about. FSU has three talented running backs in Jermaine Thomas, Ty Jones, and Chris Thompson, and they rotate in and out just like we do. When they go to the air, Taiwan Easterling, Bert Reed, and Willie Haulstead are his favorite targets and are legit deep threats.
Defense
The heart and soul of this 4-3, nose tackle defense is the front seven. They will constantly test UVa’s line, especially from the edge with LE Markus White, SLB Mister Alexander, and MLB Kendall Smith. Fortunately for the Hoos is that NG Jacobbi McDaniel, the anchor of the front line hurt his elbow in the 4th quarter against Wake and might not play. If there is one weakness on the D it is their young secondary, whose only “senior” member is Jr. SS Terrance Parks. Oklahoma lit them up not only on the long ball, but by throwing accurate passes and evading defenders.
Special Teams
This is a very effective team, especially on returns. Corner Greg Reid is as good as anyone else in the conference on punt and kick returns.
How Virginia Loses
Well, I’m not going to lie, but FSU is stocked with fast athletes, and they man a lot of positions. The most direct approach is to stretch the field vertical and get behind our secondary. If the Hoos don’t get to Ponder, he could have all day to pick us apart. On the other side of the ball, if the O line can’t hold off the blitzers or open some holes for Jones or Payne, it could keep our defense on the field for a long time. When FSU wins, they have double-digit advantages in the TOP column. It doesn’t matter how good your defense is if they are on the field for 40+ minutes.
How Virginia Wins
A lot of planning has to go into this. First, they must be effective in the running game and short crossing passing routes to gain first downs and make the game shorter. We won’t win a 38-35 game, but if the contest is in the 20s, we have a shot. Secondly, due to Ponders condition, we have got to get pressure off the edges. If Ponder is staring up from the ground most of the day, we could get a couple of “ducks” our way. Lastly, we don’t beat ourselves in penalties or special teams.
Prediction
I want to believe we will play the same way we did against USC, but the Trojans helped us out a lot as well to keep drives alive. There will be a lot of emotion early, but we must be able to control that emotion and deal that out all game. The crowd will be in the game with the White Out, and they also need to be in the game for 4 quarters. As in recent years, I have my “27” point rule. If the Hoos can put up more than 27 points, they can win any game due to their new found run defense. I rarely look at spreads for the Hoos, cause I have enough stress in my life to have to worry about Virginia covering. But, alas, while I think they will keep it within 7 points, the Noles will eventually get the victory. FSU 31, Virginia 25.
