The NCAA released its plan for how to handle the recently-expanded NCAA Tournament that now features 68 teams. The last four “at-large” teams will face off against one another for the final two at-large spots, and the last four automatic qualifiers will square off to fill the final two 16-seed slots.
The games will be played on Tuesday and Wednesday following Selection Sunday.
There’s already a good bit of debate about how it should be handled. Some feel the last eight automatic qualifiers should play each other, but that punishes that set unfairly. Some feel the last eight at-large teams should play one another, but again, that punishes at large teams #30-#33 who previously would’ve never had to play in a play-in round.
This compromise is the most fair blend to appease both of those camps, but I still feel like it leaves some room for improvement.
I say do this: For the “First Four,” as the NCAA is branding the first four games of the tournament, have the last four at-large teams square off against the last four automatic qualifiers. The winners of these games receive 12-seeds. The worst of the at-large teams would face the best of this group of automatic qualifiers, the #3 AL would face the #2 AUTO, and so forth.
How it helps the at-large teams: It gives all four of these teams–which frankly stand a far better chance of advancing into tournament than any of the automatic qualifiers–a better chance of advancing into the first round of the tourney. Under the current system, two of the at-large teams are guaranteed to not make it to the first round.
How it helps the automatic-qualifiers: Instead four teams squaring off against #1 seeds–a game a #16 has NEVER won–you instead give these four teams a shot against teams they stand a much better chance of defeating. And whereas before, where the winner of the 64/65 “play-in” game would get paired up with the top overall seed on two-days’ rest, any automatic qualifier that advances will be granted a 12-seed as a reward. There they would face off against a much more reasonable 5-seeded opponent. They’d still be at a disadvantage, having already played two nights prior, but wouldn’t be mere cannon fodder for the top #1 seed.
The objections would come from the automatic qualifiers that get seeded 14th and 15th, most likely. They’d still be faced with a daunting foe in the opening round, whereas the would-be 16s would potentially face a 12-seed and then a 5-seed to get to the second round. But we’ve seen 15-seeds take down 2-seeds and 14-seeds take down 3-seeds before. The 14- and 15-seeds aren’t being asked the impossible.
The last two 16-seeds in the first round, however, would be taking on the top-two #1s on two-days rest–further increasing the chances we’ll likely never see a 16 topple a 1. (Though in fairness, the quality of the top two 16-seeds will improve under either system, so one could argue it actually IMPROVES the probability of that happening.)
To me, this proposed system comes with additional added benefits.
All four of the “First Four” games will have broader television appeal. Instead of folks only tuning in to see the last four at-large teams play, there will be nationwide appeal to see if any of the automatic qualifiers will advance past their weak at-large opponent to earn that coveted 12th seed.
Also, if we assume that the four at-large teams will beat their automatic-qualifying opponents (a tenuous assumption), then the overall quality of the teams in the first round will have improved on paper (based on comparative RPIs and whatnot).
Here’s how the “First Four” would look under my idea (AL-Final At Large Team; AQ-Final Automatic Qualifier):
Tuesday night:
6:00 pm #1 AQ vs. #4 AL for 4th 12-seed slot
8:30 pm #4 AQ vs. #1 AL for 1st 12-seed slot
Wednesday night:
6:00 pm #3 AQ vs. #2 AL for 2nd 12-seed slot
8:30 pm #2 AQ vs. #3 AL for 3rd 12-seed slot
As such, the 28th-best (of 31 total) AQ stands the best chance to advance, but would have to face off against the best 5th-seed in the first round. If the worst automatic-qualifier were able to somehow defeat the 34th-best at-large team, they would face off against the worst 5th-seed, improving their chances to advance to the second round. I would think either of those two scenarios would make for interesting television the Thursday of the first round when one of these AQ teams advances.
Am I nuts? Let me know your thoughts in the comments and how to best tweak this system, or if you like it how it is.
