SIM-ply Put: Duke Will Beat Purdue - Game Simulation -

SIM-ply Put: Duke Will Beat Purdue - Game Simulation

by WebMaster

Posted: 3/26/2010 4:50:39 AM

SIM-ply Put: Duke Will Beat Purdue - Game Simulation

This is not meant to be an opinion piece, but a look at a simulated game between Duke and Purdue.  This article is the introduction of our new Game Simulator.  It is still only days old, so if you find oddities let us know.  The Game Simulator gets a game tempo from the two teams and plays out a game using the two teams' tendencies. 

Want more specifics?  If so, keep reading or otherwise skip this paragraph.  In seconds, we play out the game possession by possession.  First, we have to understand that a possession can end in a field goal attempt, turnover, or free throw attempt.  We then determine how often a given team does each by creating 3 buckets (of different proportional sizes).  After generating a random number we find out which bucket this possession will fall into.  We then continue analyzing the possession.  For example if a field goal attempt, we determine who would the shooter be?  Are they more likely to shoot a 2 or 3?  For that type of shot, how effective are they?  If a miss, was it an offensive or defensive rebound?  Etc. Etc.

After running a few simulations, I was quite pleased with the numbers I was seeing.  That all said, lets use our new feature to help forecast the game tonight between Duke and Purdue.

FINAL SCORE -- DU (2010): 70 - Purdue (2010): 61

Matchup Simulation Stats

  • This game has been simulated 20 times.
  • DU (2010) has won 19 times (95.0% of the time)
  • Purdue (2010) has won 1 times (5.0% of the time)
  • The average score is DU (2010): 70.6 - Purdue (2010): 54.8
  • The game has gone into overtime 0 times (0.0% of the time)



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