One thing I hate to do on this site is make predictions. Yet that has never stopped me from doing them. God bless America.So here I am again, ready to give you my thoughts on some upcoming game/tournament.
Of course I could sit here and tell you all about each team in detail, explain to you why so-and-so will suddenly get hot, why that guy will lose his jumper, how that coach will screw that up and guarantee you some mind blowing upset…but I’m not.
Pointless.
I’m an old-school gambler and one thing us old-timers love is history. So I’m going to look in the past to tell you the future. And yes, I’m going to deliver the same line I do every time I do this…these “predictions” should be completely ignored.
So What do we know about the ACC Tournament?
We know that Duke and North Carolina have won it a lot (17 times each), but that doesn’t really help us. They’re two original league members, of course they’re going to have a stack of conference titles.
Hell, if you just based it on team’s history, then you would have to argue that South Carolina, who won the ACC crown back in 1971, has a better shot than Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Virginia Tech.Of course this would be difficult since the Cocks play in the SEC (traitors!).
While I can certainly judge teams by their recent performances, the fact is, I believe in seeding and the history seeding results can tell us. And when I say history, I mean recent history. Sorry, I don’t care about who won want in 1962. They didn’t even let blacks in the league then. Nothing counts.
I am going to look back at the tournament dating back to 1985. This was the year the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams, thus losing in the tournament no longer meant the end of the season (excluding the N.I.T.).
SO WHAT DO THE NUMBERS TELL ME?
- It’s good to be No 1. The top seed has made it to the finals in 16 of the last 25 tournaments, although, they’ve only won half of those games. Recently, the No 1 seed has won three-straight (2006-2008).
- Being the No 2 use to mean something. Over an 18-year period, the No 2 seed made it to the finals half of the time. Of those nine, the No 2 seed won seven championships.
- Lately though, the No 2 seed has been a curse. Since 2003, no No 2 seed has advanced to the ACC finals. The two seed is only 3-7 in the tournament since 2003, losing in the quarterfinals four times.
- Of course, the No 2 seed is not the norm, as the higher seeds tend to dominate in the finals. In fact, the high seed in the championship game has won seven out of the last eight (No 6 Maryland over No 1 Duke in 2004 was the lone upset).
- In the past though, upsets in the finals were more common. In fact, the high seed (prior to 2002) was just 9-8 in the champion game.
- Of course, all because the No 2 seed has been getting into the finals, that doesn’t mean that any of the little guy’s are stepping up to shock the league. In fact, the title game has featured No 4 seeds or higher in all title games, except seven. That’s 50 teams and only seven have been a five seed or lower.
- The most common title game match up has been a #3 seed vs. a #1 seed (seven times, compared to six #2 vs. #1).
- Of course, No 3 seeds may get to the title game, but that doesn’t mean they do much once they get there. In fact, the No 3 has lost in five of the last six title games they appeared in.
- One last note on title games. Of the 25 winners since 1985, 22 were three seeds or higher. The three times it didn’t happen? Each time the winning team was a No 6 seed (Maryland in 2004, Georgia Tech in 1993 and N.C. State in 1987). That basically means if you’re a 4/5 seed or seeds #7-12, you’re not winning this baby.
- Now I’ve spent a lot of time on the top seeds, but what about the bottom feeders? Since 2005, the ACC has had 12 seeds (technically in 2005 there were 11, followed by 12 in 2006) and they’re not terrible. In fact, Seeds #9-12 are 13-19 in the tournament overall since 2005.
- In round one, the bottom seeds are actually better. Seeds #9-12 are 10-9 since 2005 in the first round. The No 12 seed is an impressive 3-1 in round one.
- Of course after round one, the lower seeds usually fall by the waist side. They’re 10-9 in round one, but only 3-10 after that. Only three have advanced past the quarterfinals.
Okay, I’ve hit on the top seeds and I’ve walked you through the lower seeds, but I’ve focused mostly on the title game and the first-round games. Everyone knows all the action in a Oreo is in the middle, so what happens in the middle rounds?
- First, if you’re the top seed, you can punch your ticket to the semis. Over the last 25 years, only two No 1 seeds have lost in the quartefinals. The last time it happened was in 1997, when Duke lost to N.C. State. Prior to that, it was N.C. State losing to Maryland in 1989.
- Like I said before, the No 12 seed and No 11 seeds have found some round one success, but joy joy, that’s about it for bragging rights. These two are just 1-5 in the semis, with Wake Forest (in 2006) being the only #12 seed to advance to the semis.
- In fact, the quarterfinals have been pretty damn uneventful over the years. Since 1998, three of the top four seeds have advanced to the semis 10 times in 12 years (twice all four top seeds made it), but never has only just one made it. What I’m saying is, if you’re a betting man, take the top seed in all games and you’ll win three of four…most likely.
- Heading into the semifinals, there’s only one important stat to know. It’s splitsville, baby. In the ACC semis, one higher seed and one lower seed has won the past eight years. The last time both higher seeds advanced to the finals was in 2001 (#2 Duke & #1 North Carolina). For the record, the higher seed winner and lower seed winner has split the past eight seasons. The highest of the seeds has gone 4-4, the lowest seed in the semis has gone 4-4.
Okay, I’ve talked all about seeds, but what about teams. There’s got to be some helpful info, right?
- First, what about Duke as the top seed? At one point, it use to be a bad thing. In fact, prior to 1998, Duke had earned the top seed five times (since 1985), but only managed to win the conference tournament once. Now though, things have changed. Duke has won the title as the top seed four times in five tries since 1998.
- Maryland has the No 2 spot, but there isn’t too much history to look at. They’re not typically this high. What I can tell you is this, when the expectations are high,
